In the grand tradition of Usenet drafts past, we have lost a GM.
Jason Drisko has taken a flyer on us and I have been forced to get a
backup.  Mike Northam
, who so ably served as
the Blazers GM last year, was kind enough to take the time to GM again
this year.  Thanks Mike!!

The Blazers, with the 17th pick, select:

  Jim McIlvane, C, 7-1. Marquette.

=====================================================================
The Blazers GM, Jason Drisko, is apparently out of town and so, in a
pinch, a few participants in the Blazer fan list
 have thrown together the
following pick and analysis.  My apologies to Jason if this isn't what
he originally intended.


I. Team Needs/History
The Portland Trailblazers are a team on a downward slide from the lofty
heights of the NBA finals only two years ago.  The last two seasons
have seen injuries and inconsistencies on the court, and an apparent
front office political struggle off the court.  They have been
eliminated in the opening round of the playoffs two years in a row.
The fans, who have no other major league team to distract them, are
focused on the Blazers and they are up in arms.  For the first time in
history, boos have been heard in perpetually sold-out Memorial
Coliseum.

You can bet your house that there will be upcoming player trades.  No
one is safe from a possible trade, but most talk has focused on Terry
Porter and Clyde Drexler (even with his balloon contract this coming
year), and at least one of the forwards (Harvey Grant, Tracy Murray,
Jerome Kersey).

Recent changes have had the GM, Geoff Petrie ("Mr. Blazer") resigning
unexpectedly, and coach Rick Adelman being fired, expectedly.  Brad
Greenberg, VP of Player Personnel, is currently in charge, but his
main task is in finding a new coach.  (Paul Allen, the billionaire
owner of the team, is working on finding a new GM.)

Thus this year's draft finds the team "in between", with many things
unsettled.  Who will be the new coach?  What style of play will the
team employ?  What trades will be made?  All of these are unknowns and
make it difficult to choose in the draft.

CENTER 
Chris Dudley has an opt-out clause in his contract.  The Blazers went
through fire and fury and court battles with David Stern to get his
contract approved in the first place, so they most likely will attempt
to resign Dudley, who played in only a few games this season due to an
broken ankle.  His playoff performance was impressive--he was the only
Blazer who could control Olajuwon, and I think the Blazers should keep
him.  Even if he loses his starting job, he still can be effective as
a stopper off the bench.  The question is, how much to pay him?  The
NBA will be watching carefully, looking for evidence that the Blazers
made a "secret deal" last summer, which would be QUITE illegal.  He
deserves more than $700k...  I could see paying him in the $1.5-2
million range.  The $3 million Jersey offered him last year is
ridiculous.  You pay a Danny Manning that kind of money.  You DON'T
pay a Chris Dudley that kind of money.

Reggie Smith, a marginal player is the nominal backup center, but he
has seen relatively little playing time in two seasons and was left
off the playoff roster.
		
Kevin Thompson lingered on the injured reserve list all year, with
what must have been the world's worst case of tendinitis.  :-) It's
unlikely that he'll be contributing much more than that in the coming
season.

FORWARDS
Buck Williams has been signed to a new contract and will remain the
Blazers' starting power forward.  Mark Bryant will fill-in as backup
(and also do some center duty, though he is small for that position).

Clifford (don't call me Cliff) Robinson is a legitimate all-star
candidate and will remain the key figure for the Blazers' inside game.

Harvey Grant, surprisingly ineffectual at small forward may well be
traded, but if he remains with the team will be the initial starter.
Jerome Kersey, plagued by aching knees, will provide energy off the
bench, and Tracy Murray, the NBA's leading 3-point shooter during the
regular season (who saw little playoff action, surprisingly) will also
be available for duty.

Since Cliffy will be likely returning to full-time duty at SF next
season, ONE of these will have to go.  Grant is a better defender and
rebounder than Murray (in fact, his 'D' was a pleasant surprise, on
the other hand his 'O' was a surprise of a different sort), but may be
hard to deal because of his salary.  (He may opt out, but if he's
smart, he won't.)  Murray, on the other hand, has the potential to be
a devastating offensive weapon off the bench.  However, he has to have
plays run for him to be effective, as the league is well aware of his
shooting prowess.  He is making about $1 million, and might be easier
to trade.  Possible trades include Murray for Anthony Mason (an
excellent rebounder/defender who is on Pat Riley's list, this trade is
OK under the cap if the Blazers throw in a $150K stiff to match
salaries), or Grant for Mason and Blackman (Blackman would give us a
veteran swingman, particularly useful if Drexler goes; not sure if
this deal will pass muster under the cap or not.)

GUARDS
The Blazers have always been strong at guard, though Clyde Drexler's
level of performance has fallen off noticeably in recent years.
Drexler, now that the season is over, will want to re-open
negotiations over his contract.  Now that he appears to be fully
recovered from his knee, ankle, and hamstring injuries, he is the
Clyde of old on offense.  Unfortunately, he has lost a lot of lateral
quickness, and now gets burned on defense with regularity.  Last year,
he was asking for a 1-year, $17 million extension.  Is he worth it?
If the Blazers can't reach a settlement soon (he should get SOMETHING,
although $17M is ridiculous), he should be traded.  Clyde should bear
in mind, though, that if he IS traded, he loses the argument of "look
what I've done in the past", which a large part of his demands are
based on.  His new team will say, "you haven't done us anything in the
past."  If Drexler is traded, the Blazers should get a good player out
of it, or a good draft pick.

Rod Strickland at the point was arguably the most effective point
guard in the Western Conference (he outplayed John Stockton and Kevin
Johnson in virtually all their head-to-head matchups).

Backups Terry Porter and James "Hollywood" Robinson have been
effective in relief, though Porter in particular seems unhappy with
his reduced role on the team and is a most likely trade candidate.
Jaren Jackson, a surprise addition to the playoff roster, will most
likely be back in the CBA.

The Blazers have the following needs (in order of importance):

A center:  
	We went 47-25 without one, but one would be handy.  We don't
necessarily need a starter, but we don't need another project sitting
on the bench.  I imagine Dudley will start, but the center we choose
should be able to play extended minutes when Duds gets into foul
trouble (and he will!), should be able to at LEAST play position D,
and have a reliable post-up move.  With the number 17 pick in the
draft, and no salary slots available barring a trade (or Harvey
deciding to opt out and head elsewhere), we won't be able to get
someone with all of desirable traits.  But decent D/rebounding
ability, and a good post-up move, should be paramount.  We should be
willing to sacrifice shotblocking, great passing (although let's not
get a black hole), and running the floor (if we want a quick fastbreak
unit, move Cliffy to center.)

An excellent defensive guard off the bench (either position):
	When your best defensive players at the guard spot are Jaren
Jackson and James Robinson, you have a problem.  Drexler's body won't
allow him to play the great defense he used to, Porter gets burned by
quick guards, and Rod has a tendency to forget about controlling his
man on the defensive end.  (When he sets his mind to it, Rod can be a
good defender, but he doesn't always do so.)  The Blazers need a good
defender off the bench who can come in and shut opposing guards down
(or at least slow the down).  Craig Ehlo is available as a free agent,
but he will likely stay in Atlanta.  If the Blazers cannot get a good
center, they should draft here.  As Hollywood can play decent `D' on
opposing points, a big swingman (2/3) would be ideal.  Defense should
be the important factor, although the player should have some
offensive game (either a good outside shot, a good penetration move,
or a good post-up game--preferably one of the first two), and
rebounding and passing will of course help.

A good, rebounding 3/4 man:
	This is another option to consider.  There are a few of these
available in the draft.  Another thing to consider is that the Buck
Williams might retire in a few years (or sooner), and the Blazers
MIGHT look for an eventual replacement in the starting lineup.

II. Your Selection (and explanation)

Jim McIlvane, 7'1" center, Marquette.
A shot-blocking defensive center (led Division I in shot blocks) who
also has some good offensive post moves (though his range is limited).
His passing ability will stand him in good stead with what may well be
a motion-oriented Blazer offense next season.  His rebounding is a
good, but it needs work. He is thin, and sometimes has great
difficulty in blocking out players who can quick their way around him.
With a stength program perhaps he will become better at rebounding,
but it is hard to tell at this stage what effect that will have. After
all, at 7 foot he is going to get quite a few boards anyway.

Scout: Paul Osmond 

III.  Others considered (and why considered) 

Eric Mobley, Pittsburgh
McIlvaine was generally considered to be the best center available at
this draft position.  Mobley definitely has an NBA-type body (a "Shaq"
type as one person put it), but his limited range was against him.
This was a close choice between the two however.

Khalid Reeves, Arizona.  
Though a shooting guard at Arizona, he is considered a point guard
prospect in the NBA.  Anticipating that the Blazers will likely make a
trade at guard, they may well be in need of a backup point guard.
Still, Reeves' ball-handling skills are suspect and that is ultimately
why I didn't choose him, as after the regular season success of the
Seattle Supersonics last year, I'm anticipating that more teams will
employ a pressing-type defense next year.  Reeves would be nice, but
the Blazers have such an abundance of backcourt options that we don't
need to draft that position.  And Reeves isn't such a talent as to
warrant drafting out of our positional needs.

Brian Grant, Xavier
Although he has apparently shown well in the tryout camps, the
Blazers' primary needs are not at forward.  We might have taken a
flyer at someone with star potential, such as Dontonio Wingfield, but
he was not available.

Eric Montross, UNC
The leading center candidate after Yinka Dare was not available at #17.

IV.  Who the team will probably take
I believe the Blazers' pick will actually be determined by their trade
plans, and that is not possible to know at this time.  However, given
the team's current constitution, I believe they will go with the best
center available, which could quite possibly be Eric Montross.  One
never gets a superstar at #17, but Montross looks to be at least a
journeyman center, and could find a place on this team.

V.  Other moves that the team should make 
Bring in the moving vans!  This team is likely to look a lot different
next season.  Paul Allen has the bucks and he is committed to building
a winning team.  He was noticeably upset with the team's inconsistent
and at times indifferent attitude last season, and I think he's
willing to trade anyone--even to the point of just making a change.
After all, we've already seen the GM and coach leave, can at least a
few players be far behind?  Maybe even a blockbuster, multi-player
kind of deal.  It's not even inconceivable that they could trade up to
get a lottery pick, though I personally feel this is less likely than
other trades.

The first order of business, though, is obviously finding a new coach
and GM.  Who these people turn out to be will go a long way toward
determining the makeup of the rest of the team.

Thanks to the following who contributed to this report:

Jason Drisko	      drisko@ics.com
Gene Rollins          rollins+@cs.cmu.edu
Brett Barksdale       brett@oce.orst.edu
Jennifer L. Brown     jlbrown@mailbox.syr.edu
Isaiah Watas Cox      iwcox@phoenix.princeton.edu
Michael A. Holtzclaw  mholtzcl@magnus.acs.ohio-state.edu
Scott Johnson         johnsos@aldur.ece.orst.edu

Mike Northam	      mbn@teleport.com
===============================================================
Draft Summary:
1.  Milwaukee Bucks
    GM:   Bobby Davis 
    Pick: Glenn Robinson, PF, 6-8.  Purdue University.
2.  Dallas Mavericks
    GM:   Theo Wendt 
    Pick: Jason Kidd, PG, 6-4.  Cal.
3.  Detroit Pistons
    GM:   Eric Iverson 
    Pick: Grant Hill, SF, 6-8. Duke.
4.  Minnesota Timberwolves
    GM's: Kevin Hansen 
          Toni Morgan 
    Pick: Donyell Marshall, SF, 6-9. Connecticut
5.  Washington Bullets
    GM's: Jim Nagle 
          The Crossjammer 
    Pick: Juwan Howard, PF, 6-10. Michigan
6.  Philadelphia 76ers
    GM's: Brent Halliburton 
    Pick: Yinka Dare, C, 7-0. George Washington
7.  Los Angeles Clippers
    GM:   Paul Osmond 
    Pick: Carlos Rogers, PF, 6-11. Tennessee State
8.  Sacramento Kings
    GM's: Don Hearth 
          Daniel W. Huang 
    Pick: Clifford Rozier, PF, 6-9.  Louisville
9.  Boston Celtics
    GM:   Ellie Cutler 
    Pick: Lamond Murray, SF, 6-7.  Cal
10. Los Angeles Lakers
    GM:   Kosh 
    Pick: Jalen Rose, SG, 6-8. Michigan
11. Seattle Sonics
    GM:   Aaron Gill 
    Pick: Wesley Person, SG, 6-6.  Auburn
12. Miami Heat              
    GM:   Rob Clough 
    Pick: Sharone Wright, C, 6-11. Clemson
13. Denver Nuggets
    GM's: Rick Grubin 
          John Exby 
    Pick: B.J. Tyler, PG, 6-1. Texas
14. New Jersey Nets
    GM:   Matthew Mitchell 
    Pick: Dontonio Wingfield, PF, 6-9. Cincinnati
15. Indiana Pacers          
    GM:   Richard Burton 
    Pick: Charlie Ward, PG, 6-0. FSU
16. Golden State Warriors 
    GM:   Mike Moore 
    Pick: Eric Montross, C, 7-0. UNC
17. Portland Trail Blazers  
    GM:   Mike Northam	
    Pick: Jim McIlvane, C, 7-1, Marquette.

Next up:
18. Milwaukee Bucks 
    GM:   Bobby Davis