In a pick obtained from the Los Angeles Lakers for Cedric Ceballos, the
Phoenix Suns, and their net GM:

   Jack Yee-Chieh Chu ,

select:

   Greg Ostertag, C, 7-2.  Kansas.

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It has been frustrating to root for the Suns. Every year, they impress
on the regular season, only to falter in the playoffs. What makes things
even more agonizing is that their playoff losses are heartbreaking, be
it triple-overtime shootouts against Portland in the early 90s, Paxson's
championship-winning shot in 1993, or Elie's three-pointer this year.

On paper, Phoenix is an impressive team. However, they seem to lack the
intangible factors which make up championship teams. More importantly,
the Suns are severely lacking on defense. I don't know if this is more
in part due to bad defensive players, or a deficiency on Westphal's
attitude. I'd like to believe the former, but reality probably sides
with the latter theory.

Once again, Phoenix's championship run was impaired by injuries; this
year, the victim was Danny Manning. He was supposed to be the unselfish
glue which bound the others' talents into an offensive machine. But his
ACL injury made the Suns' title chances difficult, if not impossible. I
don't want to use Manning's injury as an excuse though, since many other
teams have been afflicted by the same problem.


I. Team analysis

GUARDS
------

KEVIN JOHNSON is one of best scorers in the NBA at his position. His mid-
range jumper is lethal when consistent. He has an uncanny knack at laying
the ball off the glass for a basket, even when out of control. He has the
ability to take virtually anyone off the dribble. However, his defense is
suspect; other guards can usually take him to the hole too. I don't think
he tries hard enough to involve the other players on offense. Instead, he
relies too much on the pick-and-roll or isolation plays. But I still rate
KJ among the top 5 PGs in the league.

DAN MAJERLE was one of my favorite players. He played with intensity, and
could use his size to his advantage. Now, he is simply a gunner who makes
a few good passes every once in a while. I remember John Thompson picked
him for the 1988 Olympic team for his defensive ability; Majerle is now
an average defender at best. He has the body to rebound, but doesn't use
it; instead, he camps out on the perimeter. Used to drive to the hoop for
dunks or free throws -- has seemed to forget how to dribble. Is still a
valuable player, but hardly deserves the nickname "Thunder" Dan.

WESLEY PERSON had a pretty good season for a rookie. His outside shot is
pretty consistent, and he can usually finish on the break. But he cannot
create his own shot, and that will keep him from ever becoming a top SG
in the league. He looked lost on defense way too often; although he will
improve, I see him as a perpetually below-average defender. Given that
the Suns snagged him from the 23rd position, Person was a steal in the
draft. But with his limitations, his peak value will probably come as a
Dell Curry-type player off the bench. A valuable person to have on the
team, but not a star.

ELLIOT PERRY made a significant improvement from previous seasons. He is
easily one of the top backups in the NBA, and probably better than many
starting PGs. His outside jumper has become pretty consistent. IMHO, he
distributes the ball better than KJ does. Plays with good intensity. I
really hope the Suns can resign him.

DANNY AINGE is one of those players whom everyone hates, but would love
to have on their team. Has a consistent jumper from mid-range to beyond
the three-point line. A dependable ball-handler, but won't create squat
off the dribble. A defensive liability who will hack when the offensive
player gets by him. Good free-throw shooter. I hope he doesn't retire,
and that management will resign him for one more year.

TREVOR RUFFIN is a shorter, less-talented version of Danny Ainge. Also
has crazy range, but doesn't provide much more beyond outside shooting.
Would make a good CBA player, but definitely not a keeper for the Suns.

FORWARDS
--------

CHARLES BARKLEY is my favorite basketball player in the world. He is a
key reason why I like the Suns. Plays with lots of intensity and heart,
which may sometimes hurt the team more than it helps. He is still a top-
notch rebounder. Has a large repetoire of post moves. His outside shot
has improved, but is still very inconsistent. A good defender down low,
but can be taken off the dribble by anyone. Excellent at passing out of
the double-team. His most glaring weakness is mental; Barkley insists on
getting the ball on offense during crunch time, even when hurt. Ends up
taking lots of bad shots, instead of passing to an open teammate. But I
still think he is the second-best PF in the league, behind Karl Malone.
At the risk of sounding obvious, Phoenix's title hopes next year depend
on his choice between basketball or golf/politics.

A.C. GREEN is an excellent role player who rebounds well and can shoot
from the outside. Plays more softly than I would like him to; doesn't
block enough shots for a PF. Would make a passable backup center if he
would put on some weight. Overpaid, but still good enough for a roster
spot next year.

DANNY MANNING was supposed to provide the Suns with the unselfishness
that would elevate the team's play as a whole. Before his injury, his
excellent performances seemed to do just that. I'm not sure whether or
not he plans on returning to the Suns, but Manning should be a great
addition for any team. Although I would not consider him a star, he is
one of the top role players (similar to Derrick McKey) in the NBA.

WAYMAN TISDALE provided the Suns with a little offense, but nothing
more. Signing him was management's second-biggest mistake during last
year's offseason, slightly above not keeping either West or Miller.
In the dozen Phoenix games I watched this year, I can't recall more
than one or two instances where Tisdale passed the ball and collected
an assist. He plays terrible defense, and doesn't have a concept of
team basketball. I'm sure he's a nice guy, but he contributed nothing
towards the Suns' playoff run.

RICHARD DUMAS was a very good player two years ago; it's a shame that
his great potential was wiped out by drugs/injuries. If the Suns felt
that he wasn't going to be an asset to the organization last season,
they probably wouldn't have traded Ceballos.
 
ANTONIO LANG didn't get quite as much PT as I thought he would. Will
be on the Suns for one more season, at most.

CENTERS
-------

JOE KLEINE is clearly the better half of the dynamic Schleine/Klayes
duo. Has a decent 19-footer from the top of the key, and the ability
to bang with most NBA centers. He's no spring chicken, but still has
a few productive years left. The Suns should keep him.

DANNY SCHAYES is slightly worse in all areas of the game compared to
Kleine, but egregiously worse in the hair category. Should probably
call it quits, especially with Claxton and the Italian League import
joining the team next year.

HEAD COACH
----------

Perhaps PAUL WESTPHAL was a victim of his early success, because the
Suns reached the NBA Finals in his rookie year as head coach. I think
it was expected, even assumed, by most Suns fans that Westphal would
lead Phoenix to several more trips to the finals after what happened
two years ago. But that hardly excuses his deficiencies as a leader.
After all, both Pat Riley and Phil Jackson (who are considered among
the top coaches) won titles within their first two seasons as coach.
Maybe his relative youth makes it difficult for players to take his
attempts at motivation seriously. In any case, he does seem way too
laid back on the sidelines to be an effective coach. Another serious
weakness in his coaching IMO is his inability to make the appropriate
halftime adjustments that others can do quite effectively. Westphal
needs to address these problems within the next few seasons, or else
he will be broadcasting for TNT or NBC.


II. Team needs

The Suns have depth at all positions except center. If Barkley retires,
they will need a solid power forward to complement A.C. Green. If they
cannot re-sign Elliot Perry, KJ will need a backup (especially with his
vulnerability to injuries).

I would address the center problem first. Given the mixed reviews I've
read about Claxton, he is hardly the savior for the Suns' needs. I know
nothing about Rusconi (sp?) so he is an X-factor.

Finally -- defense, Defense, DEFENSE!!!


III. Whom to Draft?

GREG OSTERTAG, Kansas. Since the Suns probably need defensive help more
than anything else, he is IMO the best pick among the players available.
Provides great shotblocking, which was nonexistent on the Suns this past
year. Had excellent rebounding numbers, especially if you consider that
he played less than 20 minutes a game for the Jayhawks. His limitations
on offense are less of a concern, especially since anyone can develop an
outside shot once they're in the pros. I'm a bit more worried about his
attitude and reputation for laziness. Westphal isn't the kind of coach
who will push his players very much, so someone else on the team (KJ or
Barkley if he is around) will have to do so. Also needs to turn some of
that flab into muscle, if he wants to bang with SHAQ! and the big boys.

I'm not sure whom the Suns will draft, since a lot of it depends on the
future of Barkley (and even Elliot Perry). If the Suns are more worried
about depth, they will draft a power forward and/or sign a veteran PG.
But if they want to address the weaknesses at center, perhaps they will
draft another project (since Ostertag is unlikely to be on the board at
#21 in the real draft).


IV. Other players considered

ALAN HENDERSON, Indiana. Nice offensive moves, has good rebounding and
fundamental defensive skills. But the knee injury he suffered in college
will scare a lot of teams into drafting someone else. Also needs to bulk
up if he wants to play power forward in the NBA.

DAVID VAUGHN, Memphis. Like Henderson, the knee injury is a concern. But
has the body to bang, and would make a good power forward (especially if
Barkley retires).

KURT THOMAS, TCU. I've never seen him play, but his numbers are quite
impressive -- even if they are a bit inflated by the Billy Tubbs-style
of basketball. If he were still around when the Suns make their second
1st-round pick, I would definitely consider drafting him.

JUNIOR BURROUGH, Virginia. Probably not tall enough to play PF, but has
the skills and bulk to do so. One of my favorite college players.


V. Other moves the team should make

1. CONVINCE BARKLEY TO COME BACK!!! This is obviously the most important
need if the Suns wish to contend next year. Maybe they'll get Ainge to
bug Barkley about playing one more year (again). Whatever it takes, this
is paramount to everything else.

2. Re-sign Elliot Perry. I'm not sure how badly he wants to stay with the
Suns, given that he could probably start for some other teams. I'm also
not clear on what his asking price will be. If KJ is on the injured list
again, the Suns cannot afford not to have an adequate backup.

3. Re-sign Danny Manning. Did a lot for the Suns while he was healthy. If
the price is right, he would make Phoenix into a contender.

4. Send Claxton to Europe. From what I've heard, he is still unpolished
and green as a big man. The Italian guy seems like he can step in right
now and contribute, which leaves very little PT for Claxton if the Suns
keep Kleine.

There is always the option of rebuilding, which is unlikely -- although
if Barkley retires, trying to start from scratch would be a possibility.
This might entail trading players like Majerle, not resigning the center
duo, and dumping A.C. Green/his salary. I don't like this approach very
much, though the prospect of perpetual second-round playoff exits is not
too nice either.

In any case, the Suns are still an exciting team to watch, and I would
say that they are in a better situation than most teams in the NBA.

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