Orlando won a coin flip and got the 25th pick in the draft (with Seattle taking the 26th). The Magic are represented by co-GM's: Tom McGuianUncle Vasya Orlando's selection is: Lou Roe, SF, 6-7, Massachusetts ====================================================================== Current Team Status, and Possible Off-season Moves. Center: Not much has changed since last season - Shaq continues to dominate and back-up center continues to be a problem area. Geert Hammink looked like a fine choice as Shaq's back-up two years ago. This season he spent the whole year on IR with tendinitis in his left knee. He has only recently been healthy enough to practice with the team. Tree Rollins, meanwhile, suffered back problems for most of the season. Aside >from a few outings he might as well have been on IR for the whole year. There have to be some changes. Tree gave it his best shot, but I have to believe that this was his final season. John Gabriel might be willing to sign him to a ten-day contract if he really gets pushed, but I don't see a full-season contract in Tree's future. Hammink will only be back if the Magic are convinced there won't be a repetition of this season's tendinitis problem, which was so severe that Hammink could not even practice most of the year. Even if he does return, I don't know whether the team will have enough faith in his health to make him the primary back-up to O'Neal. I look for Orlando to sign a free-agent center, unless there is a very good back-up available in the draft. Jon Koncak has been mentioned as one possibility. Power forward: AAAAAUUUUUUUGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! became AAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! with the signing of Horace Grant. No more void!!! Like back-up center, however, back-up PF is a major problem. Anthony Avent looked good early in the season. But then, all of a sudden, his aggressiveness vanished. A repeat of his first half-season with the team :( He could survive at the end of the bench, especially because he's never had a serious injury problem. The Magic need more from their primary back-up, however. Jeff Turner tried hard, but his ACL injury cost him a half-step he couldn't afford to lose. He spent most of the season charting plays for BHill. I wouldn't be surprised to see him keep the clip-board and lose the uniform next season. Look for Rodney Dent to step up next season. His knee and foot apparently are 100% recovered, and comments from John Gabriel and Richie Adubato indicate he is doing well in team practices. An added plus: Dent is big enough and physical enough that he is expected to play both the 4 and 5 spots. The Magic usually have 5 players on the roster who can play 4 and/or 5. I anticipate at least one, and possibly two new faces among the five. Small Forward: Donald Royal inherited the starter's job when Dennis Scott was slowed by back problems during the pre-season. Although Royal said he liked the starting job, I am not convinced that that is his best spot. Royal was effective early on, but he seemed to tire towards the end of the season. He was noticeably slower with his first step, and wasn't getting to the free-throw line nearly as often in April as he was in November. I like him better coming off the bench. In that situation he can play full-tilt without worrying about pacing himself. Also, with his quick first step, I see Royal being more effective coming in late - where he will either be matched up against a tired starter or a less-talented back-up. The major question facing Orlando in the off-season is what to do about Dennis Scott. On the plus side, when his shot is on, he can help to spread defenses, freeing up room for Shaq. His inside game has become better, and he's showing more energy on defense. In addition, he's a good presence in the clubhouse and has stepped up as one of the players who keeps the team focused. On the minus side, I have a vague fear that he will revert to the his "I just want to enjoy the game" mindset once he signs his new contract, abandoning the competitive fire he's shown in the playoffs. If only he had Horace Grant's killer instinct (sighhhhh). There are several clubs (NJ, and Cleveland were two of the first) who have expressed interest in Dennis. One has to wonder how far Orlando will be willing to go in a bidding war. Scott has played very well in the playoffs, so if the Magic can sign him to a new contract at a reasonable salary, they probably will. Team chemistry is strong, and John Gabriel will try to avoid any changes that might disturb it. But, I can't see Orlando making Scott the next Jon Koncak. Shooting Guard: This has been an excellent season for Nick Anderson. He developed a reliable shot from beyond the arc, and his movement away from the ball improved to give him a lot of wide-open looks. He displayed more commitment to defense too. Although he missed an All-Star berth, he didn't miss by much. Anthony Bowie continues to provide a strong energy boost when he is inserted in the line-up. He is a strong defender with an adequate offensive game. His outside shot is strong enough to keep people honest. Unless another team gives him an offer that includes a big raise, I expect to see Bowie back in Magic pinstripes next season. During his rookie season, Brooks Thompson showed flashes of the outside shooting touch that convinced Orlando to take him in the draft. He also showed that he's not ready yet to take on PG responsibilities. He'll need a lot of work on that aspect of his game before anyone would confuse him with Jeff Hornacek. Fortunately, Brooks has a good work ethic, and, as he proved in his last season at Oklahoma State, he has the skills. He'll be back next season to show what he learned over the summer. Point Guard: The voters said it all when they named Penny to the first-team all-NBA squad. And, things are only going to get better. Backing up Penny was new acquisition Brian Shaw. Despite nagging injuries that kept him out for most of the pre-season, he adjusted to his new team quickly. His defense is more than adequate for a back-up, IMO. His assist/turnover ratio, at 2.2, is acceptable. His biggest problem continues to be his shot. I cringe every time he sets up beyond the arc, and most times he sets up inside. Shaw is an unrestricted free-agent, who is expected to re-sign with the team. Late signee Darrell Armstrong is the latest small quick PG to join the roster. The Magic never seem to use such players much though. Their game is built on post-up play from the PG position, so players like Armstrong spend most of their time getting the regulars ready to play the Muggsy Bogues's of the league. Armstrong may be back next season, but I would not expect Orlando to expend any significant energy to make it happen. Expansion Draft: The expansion draft will be interesting for Orlando. Anthony Bowie, Tree Rollins, and Brian Shaw are unrestricted free-agents, and so are not a consideration. The team will protect Shaq, Penny, Grant, Anderson and (almost certainly) Royal. Who gets the last three slots is the interesting question. Dennis Scott is the biggest question. Financially, protecting him makes sense only if the Magic want to retain their rights to him as a RFA - and to do that they would also have to offer him a minimum raise. Although Dennis has had a decent season, I don't see Orlando being willing to pay him $4M+. In addition, Scott has made it clear that he wants to stay in Orlando, so I don't see him bolting without giving the Magic a chance to match any offer he might receive, even to be a starter on an expansion team. Thus, financially, I don't think the Magic gain anything by protecting him. However, I still think that there is a very good chance that Scott will be in a Magic uniform next season, with a major role on the club. I'm not sure how he'd respond to knowing we left him open in the expansion draft. Thus, I see a strong psychological reason for protecting him - to avoid disturbing team chemistry. In my mind the arguments for and against protecting Dennis are equally strong. Since I have to make a choice, I'll protect him. I doubt Orlando will protect Jeff Turner. So the choices boil down to two of Darrell Armstrong, Anthony Avent, Rodney Dent, Geert Hammink, and Brooks Thompson. I think that the Magic will protect Thompson and Dent, as the two players with the greatest potential. If Orlando does leave Scott open, who replaces him on the protected list? Avent may be a disappointment (he could be so much better if he played with intensity), but at least he's healthy - whereas Hammink's knees have always given him problems. As noted before, IMO Armstrong has little chance of earning any significant time unless our offensive scheme changes. I'll give Avent the nod, but I think there's a very good chance that the team actually may go with Hammink. So: IMO, Orlando protects: O'Neal Hardaway Grant Anderson Royal Scott (or Avent) Thompson Dent They will make available: Armstrong Avent (or Scott) Hammink Turner Summary: The Magic will have to be on the prepared to go after a quality SF to replace Dennis Scott should he be offered a contract Orlando can't justify matching. I hope it doesn't happen, but Gabriel will be doing his homework just in case. Beyond that, Orlando will be looking to upgrade their back-ups at both the 4 and 5 spots, most likely by signing one or two free-agents. The team's draft pick will, like Thompson this year, get very little playing time unless a unexpected injury occurs.. So I expect the team to take the best player available, regardless of position. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Orlando's selection: Lou Roe, SF, 6-7, University of Massachusetts. Lou Roe, although somewhat of a tweener (likely 6-6 tops), has great athletic ability and a terrific work ethic: both traits that the Magic weigh very heavily. He has proven himself against the toughest NCAA competition and at the Desert Classic, where he was named to the All-Tournament team. Since the Magic are picking 25th, they're looking to pick up someone who can play in this league, regardless of position. Roe definitely fits this description. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Others considered: With Lou Roe still available, my choice was clear. I doubt very much that John Gabriel will be that lucky. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Who the team will probably take: As noted in my summary, I expect the Magic to draft the best player available regardless of position. I think that there is at a 50% chance that at least one of the following will be available when Orlando makes its pick (and I would be happy with any of them): PF - Alan Henderson SF - Lou Roe, Eric Williams G - Bob Sura, Brent Barry, Lawrence Moten some comments: Lou Roe: see above Henderson: Uncle Vasya expressed some concerns about Henderson's being somewhat of a "tweener". I like him for just that reason: There are a lot of BIG threes, especially in the Eastern Conference. Donald Royal and Dennis Scott tend to have match-up problems when face with a player like that (for instance, Derrick McKey ). So I think that we could user a tweener 3/4. Williams: I was somewhat concerned about his drop if FG% from 51 to 41% during his senior year. Uncle Vasya likes him more than Roe. Sura (Danny Ainge Jr.) and Brent Barry (you have to respect any guard who can shoot over 50%, and Barry did it as the primary threat on his team): Both have the passing ability and the savvy to be true 1/2's - which is something the Magic tend to look for. Sura's 41% from the field may cause him to drop. Moten: The Usenet Scouting report mentioned a concern about Moten's defense. Then he averaged 3.5 st/g at Phoenix. Usually when I see big steals numbers, I wonder if a player might be "grandstanding. But, he also was named to the All-Tournament team - and that doesn't happen unless your overall game is strong and solid. IF all are taken before the 25th pick, I think Orlando will look at Loren Meyer, Junior Burrough, and possibly Kurt Thomas (I wish I knew more about how Burrough and Thomas did at Phoenix). And, I have a hunch that Jason Caffey may surprise some people. Although he did not make the All-tournament team at Phoenix, he did post averages of 11.5 pts and 9.0 rebounds (Ostertag was the only other player over 8 rpg). He is an incredible athlete and a defensive terror. Finally, although Orlando does not tend to use smaller PG's, there are a lot of teams who do. If Best or Edney is still out there when Orlando picks, John Gabriel could trade this pick for future considerations. =======================================================================