Orlando won a coin flip and got the 25th pick in the draft (with
Seattle taking the 26th).  The Magic are represented by co-GM's:

   Tom McGuian 
   Uncle Vasya 

Orlando's selection is:

   Lou Roe, SF, 6-7, Massachusetts

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Current Team Status, and Possible Off-season Moves.

Center:

Not much has changed since last season - Shaq continues to dominate
and back-up center continues to be a problem area.  Geert Hammink
looked like a fine choice as Shaq's back-up two years ago.  This season
he spent the whole year on IR with tendinitis in his left knee.  He has
only recently been healthy enough to practice with the team.  Tree
Rollins, meanwhile, suffered back problems for most of the season. Aside
>from a few outings he might as well have been on IR for the whole year.
There have to be some changes.

Tree gave it his best shot, but I have to believe that this was his
final season.  John Gabriel might be willing to sign him to a ten-day
contract if he really gets pushed, but I don't see a full-season
contract in Tree's future.  Hammink will only be back if the Magic are
convinced there won't be a repetition of this season's tendinitis
problem, which was so severe that Hammink could not even practice most
of the year.  Even if he does return, I don't know whether the team 
will have enough faith in his health to make him the primary back-up
to O'Neal.

I look for Orlando to sign a free-agent center, unless there is a very
good back-up available in the draft.  Jon Koncak has been mentioned as one
possibility.

Power forward:

AAAAAUUUUUUUGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
became AAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! with the signing of Horace Grant.  No 
more void!!!

Like back-up center, however, back-up PF is a major problem.  Anthony
Avent looked good early in the season.  But then, all of a sudden, his 
aggressiveness vanished.  A repeat of his first half-season with the 
team :(  He could survive at the end of the bench, especially because
he's never had a serious injury problem.  The Magic need more from their
primary back-up, however.

Jeff Turner tried hard, but his ACL injury cost him a half-step he
couldn't afford to lose.  He spent most of the season charting plays for
BHill.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him keep the clip-board and lose
the uniform next season.

Look for Rodney Dent to step up next season.  His knee and foot
apparently are 100% recovered, and comments from John Gabriel and Richie
Adubato indicate he is doing well in team practices.  An added plus: 
Dent is big enough and physical enough that he is expected to play both
the 4 and 5 spots.

The Magic usually have 5 players on the roster who can play 4 and/or 5.
I anticipate at least one, and possibly two new faces among the five.

Small Forward:

Donald Royal inherited the starter's job when Dennis Scott was slowed
by back problems during the pre-season.  Although Royal said he liked
the starting job, I am not convinced that that is his best spot.
Royal was effective early on, but he seemed to tire towards the end of
the season.  He was noticeably slower with his first step, and wasn't
getting to the free-throw line nearly as often in April as he was in 
November.  I like him better coming off the bench.  In that situation
he can play full-tilt without worrying about pacing himself.  Also, 
with his quick first step, I see Royal being more effective coming in
late - where he will either be matched up against a tired starter or
a less-talented back-up.  

The major question facing Orlando in the off-season is what to do about
Dennis Scott.  On the plus side, when his shot is on, he can help to
spread defenses, freeing up room for Shaq.  His inside game has become 
better, and he's showing more energy on defense.  In addition, he's a
good presence in the clubhouse and has stepped up as one of the players
who keeps the team focused.  On the minus side, I have a vague fear
that he will revert to the his "I just want to enjoy the game" mindset
once he signs his new contract, abandoning the competitive fire he's
shown in the playoffs.  If only he had Horace Grant's killer instinct
(sighhhhh).  There are several clubs (NJ, and Cleveland were two of the
first) who have expressed interest in Dennis.  One has to wonder how
far Orlando will be willing to go in a bidding war.  Scott has played
very well in the playoffs, so if the Magic can sign him to a new
contract at a reasonable salary, they probably will.  Team chemistry is
strong, and John Gabriel will try to avoid any changes that might
disturb it.  But, I can't see Orlando making Scott the next Jon Koncak.

Shooting Guard:

This has been an excellent season for Nick Anderson.  He developed a
reliable shot from beyond the arc, and his movement away from the ball
improved to give him a lot of wide-open looks.  He displayed more
commitment to defense too. Although he missed an All-Star berth, he
didn't miss by much.

Anthony Bowie continues to provide a strong energy boost when he is
inserted in the line-up.  He is a strong defender with an adequate
offensive game.  His outside shot is strong enough to keep people
honest.  Unless another team gives him an offer that includes a big
raise, I expect to see Bowie back in Magic pinstripes next season.

During his rookie season, Brooks Thompson showed flashes of the
outside shooting touch that convinced Orlando to take him in the
draft.  He also showed that he's not ready yet to take on PG
responsibilities.  He'll need a lot of work on that aspect of his game
before anyone would confuse him with Jeff Hornacek.  Fortunately,
Brooks has a good work ethic, and, as he proved in his last season at
Oklahoma State, he has the skills.  He'll  be back next season to show
what he learned over the summer.

Point Guard:

The voters said it all when they named Penny to the first-team all-NBA
squad.  And, things are only going to get better.  

Backing up Penny was new acquisition Brian Shaw.  Despite nagging 
injuries that kept him out for most of the pre-season, he adjusted to 
his new team quickly.  His defense is more than adequate for a back-up,
IMO.  His assist/turnover ratio, at 2.2, is acceptable.  His biggest 
problem continues to be his shot. I cringe every time he sets up beyond
the arc, and most times he sets up inside.  Shaw is an unrestricted 
free-agent, who is expected to re-sign with the team.  

Late signee Darrell Armstrong is the latest small quick PG to join the
roster.  The Magic never seem to use such players much though.  Their
game is built on post-up play from the PG position, so players like
Armstrong spend most of their time getting the regulars ready to play
the Muggsy Bogues's of the league.  Armstrong may be back next season,
but I would not expect Orlando to expend any significant energy to make
it happen.

Expansion Draft:

The expansion draft will be interesting for Orlando.  Anthony Bowie,
Tree Rollins, and Brian Shaw are unrestricted free-agents, and so are 
not a consideration.  The team will protect Shaq, Penny, Grant,
Anderson and (almost certainly) Royal.  Who gets the last three slots 
is the interesting question.

Dennis Scott is the biggest question. Financially, protecting him
makes sense only if the Magic want to retain their rights to him as a
RFA - and to do that they would also have to offer him a minimum raise.
Although Dennis has had a decent season, I don't see Orlando being
willing to pay him $4M+. In addition, Scott has made it clear that he
wants to stay in Orlando, so I don't see him bolting without giving
the Magic a chance to match any offer he might receive, even to be a
starter on an expansion team.  Thus, financially, I don't think the
Magic gain anything by protecting him.  However, I still think that
there is a very good chance that Scott will be in a Magic uniform
next season, with a major role on the club.  I'm not sure how he'd
respond to knowing we left him open in the expansion draft.  Thus, I
see a strong psychological reason for protecting him - to avoid
disturbing team chemistry.  In my mind the arguments for and
against protecting Dennis are equally strong.  Since I have to make
a choice, I'll protect him.  

I doubt Orlando will protect Jeff Turner.  So the choices boil down
to two of Darrell Armstrong, Anthony Avent, Rodney Dent, Geert
Hammink, and Brooks Thompson.  I think that the Magic will protect
Thompson and Dent, as the two players with the greatest potential.

If Orlando does leave Scott open, who replaces him on the protected
list? Avent may be a disappointment (he could be so much better if he
played with intensity), but at least he's healthy - whereas Hammink's
knees have always given him problems.  As noted before, IMO Armstrong
has little chance of earning any significant time unless our
offensive scheme changes.  I'll give Avent the nod, but I think
there's a very good chance that the team actually may go with Hammink.

So:

IMO, Orlando protects:

O'Neal
Hardaway
Grant
Anderson
Royal
Scott (or Avent)
Thompson
Dent

They will make available:

Armstrong
Avent (or Scott)
Hammink
Turner

Summary:

The Magic will have to be on the prepared to go after a quality SF to 
replace Dennis Scott should he be offered a contract Orlando can't
justify matching.  I hope it doesn't happen, but Gabriel will be doing
his homework just in case.  Beyond that, Orlando will be looking to
upgrade their back-ups at both the 4 and 5 spots, most likely by
signing one or two free-agents.  The team's draft pick will, like
Thompson this year, get very little playing time unless a unexpected
injury occurs..  So I expect the team to take the best player
available, regardless of position.  
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Orlando's selection:

	Lou Roe, SF, 6-7, University of Massachusetts.

Lou Roe, although somewhat of a tweener (likely 6-6 tops), has great
athletic ability and a terrific work ethic:  both traits that the Magic
weigh very heavily.  He has proven himself against the toughest NCAA
competition and at the Desert Classic, where he was named to the
All-Tournament team.

Since the Magic are picking 25th, they're looking to pick up someone
who can play in this league, regardless of position. Roe definitely
fits this description.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Others considered:

With Lou Roe still available, my choice was clear.  I doubt very much
that John Gabriel will be that lucky.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Who the team will probably take:

As noted in my summary, I expect the Magic to draft the best player
available regardless of position.  I think that there is at a 50% chance
that at least one of the following will be available when Orlando makes
its pick (and I would be happy with any of them):

PF - Alan Henderson
SF - Lou Roe, Eric Williams
G  - Bob Sura, Brent Barry, Lawrence Moten

some comments:

Lou Roe: see above

Henderson: Uncle Vasya expressed some concerns about Henderson's being
somewhat of a "tweener".  I like him for just that reason:  There are a
lot of BIG threes, especially in the Eastern Conference.  Donald Royal
and Dennis Scott tend to have match-up problems when face with a player
like that (for instance, Derrick McKey ).  So I think that we could user
a tweener 3/4.

Williams:  I was somewhat concerned about his drop if FG% from 51 to 41%
during his senior year.  Uncle Vasya likes him more than Roe.

Sura (Danny Ainge Jr.) and Brent Barry (you have to respect any guard who
can shoot over 50%, and Barry did it as the primary threat on his team):
Both have the passing ability and the savvy to be true 1/2's - which is
something the Magic tend to look for.  Sura's 41% from the field may
cause him to drop.

Moten:  The Usenet Scouting report mentioned a concern about Moten's
defense.  Then he averaged 3.5 st/g at Phoenix.  Usually when I see big
steals numbers, I wonder if a player might be "grandstanding.  But, he
also was named to the All-Tournament team - and that doesn't happen
unless your overall game is strong and solid.

IF all are taken before the 25th pick, I think Orlando will look at
Loren Meyer, Junior Burrough, and possibly Kurt Thomas (I wish I knew 
more about how Burrough and Thomas did at Phoenix).

And, I have a hunch that Jason Caffey may surprise some people.
Although he did not make the All-tournament team at Phoenix, he did
post averages of 11.5 pts and 9.0 rebounds (Ostertag was the only 
other player over 8 rpg).  He is an incredible athlete and a defensive
terror.  

Finally, although Orlando does not tend to use smaller PG's, there are
a lot of teams who do.  If Best or Edney is still out there when
Orlando picks, John Gabriel could trade this pick for future
considerations.

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