The first pick in the Usenet supplemental draft goes to the Houston Rockets.
The Rockets first round pick was traded to the Portland Trailblazers as
part of the Clyde Drexler/Otis Thorpe trade.  This was conditional upon
Houston making the NBA finals (which of course they did).  In reality, the 
Rockets will pick 41st.  They are represented by:

   John Carter .

John selects:

   Kurt Thomas, PF, 6-9.  Texas Christian.

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I.  Analysis of Current Team and Needs

Anybody who has been watching much of this year's playoffs should have a
pretty good feel for what the Rockets have (two superstars surrounded by a
hard working collection of role players) and what they need (front court
depth who can provide added rebounding punch and a backup for Hakeem).  As
reigning world champions until somebody knocks 'em off, the Rockets are
missing fewer pieces of the championship puzzle than most teams.  They
underperformed in the regular season, but seem to have come together as a
team in this year's playoffs, winning the Western Conference from their
sixth seed after knocking off the Jazz, Suns, and Spurs.  The Jazz and Suns
series were perfect examples of how much Houston has matured as a team
under coach Rudy Tomjanovich's mentoring.  They used to be a team that
would play great ball during the regular season, only to choke in the
playoffs.  Now the Rockets couldn't care less how adverse their position is
-- they just get serious, hunker down, and win.  No matter if they win or
lose in the championship series against the Magic or Pacers, they have done
an admirable job of defending their NBA title.  Hopefully their current
amazing run through the playoffs (they've already knocked off the teams
with the best, second best, and third best records in the regular season!)
will earn them some of the respect that seemed to be lacking after last
year's championship season.

Examining the team closely, it is clear that Rudy T has put together a
dangerous team by surrounding two future Hall of Famers (Hakeem "The Dream"
Olajuwon and Clyde "The Glide" Drexler) with journeyman players who know
their roles and play them to near perfection.  Starting from the top, any
team with Olajuwon in the center is a force with which to be reckoned.  A
mid-season trade brought in Hakeem's ex-Phi Slamma Jamma teammate, Drexler,
in return for one of the most underappreciated forwards in the league, Otis
Thorpe.  Although the trade has already paid dividends (e.g., Houston's
surprising march to the WCF), it aggravated Houston's long time weakness:
rebounding.  It is this weakness that Houston most needs to address this
offseason, either through the draft, a free agent signing, or a trade.
With that in mind, here's a detailed analysis of Houston's current roster
and its weaknesses.

One slight negative to Houston's victory over their arch-rivals, the Spurs,
is that they were forced to send their #1 pick (19th overall) to Portland
as a contingency of the Drexler-Thorpe trade.  With that pick, several
solid power forward prospects were still on the table (Henderson and
Burrough).  By the time the 37th pick rolls around, its a crap shoot.
Still, you only get so many chances to win a championship.


POINT GUARD
-----------
Starter: Kenny Smith
Backups: Sam Cassell

The point guard position is a mixed bag for the Rockets.  Looking at it in
a positive light, Houston has two good shooting point guards who could
start for many if not most NBA teams.  Taking a more pessimistic point of
view, both KENNY SMITH and SAM CASSELL have unnerving tendencies to
disappear for long stretches of time, make stupid turnovers when their
streaky shooting is off, and have serious trouble defensively (witness:
KJ's near destruction of the Rockets in the semi-finals and Avery Johnson's
almost 20 ppg performance in the Western Conference finals -- shiver).

KENNY SMITH is the starter, but he and Cassell get about equal minutes.
Kenny plays most of the first and third quarters while Sammy gets the
second and fourth.  Smith is an outstanding outside shooter -- he is
usually one of the top three point shooters in the league and has been the
top shooting point guard (FG%-wise) a number of times.  Given Hakeem's
presence in the middle, Smith gets plenty of open outside shots and his
three point shooting accuracy makes teams pay when they double down on
Dream.  Unfortunately, Smith is only an average playmaker, is awful on the
boards, and is a mediocre defender at best.  Only Hakeem's imposing
presence inside makes Smith's drawbacks palatable.

SAM ("I am") CASSELL was expected by many around the league and in the
media to become an impact player in his second year after his performance
in last year's NBA championship series.  season.  Most Rocket fans were
hoping he'd push Smith out of the starting role and become the star point
guard Houston's been trying to find for so many years.  Unfortunately, he
suffered something of a sophomore slump this year and only now (in the
playoffs) seems to be shaking it off.  Sammy is a much better playmaker
than Smith when he stays under control, but he has picked up a few of Mad
Max's bad habits when it comes to losing control and making stupid
turnovers when he isn't scoring, not to mention Smith's ole' defensive
moves.  Cassell has a nasty crossover move and he has a knack for hitting
the big shot at the end of games.  Teamed with Glide and Elie, he is deadly
on the break and plays best when he drives aggressively.  Given how long it
takes for most point guards to come into their own, it's possible that
someday Sammy may rank among the best in the league (he has the raw tools,
for sure), but he certainly isn't there yet.

Grade: B


OFF GUARD
---------
Starter: Clyde Drexler
Backups: Mario Elie, Tim Breaux, (Vernon Maxwell)

CLYDE DREXLER would have been the top guard in the NBA over the last ten
years if not for a certain well known ex-Chicago White Sox minor leaguer.
Once a serious weak spot, shooting guard is now Houston's second strongest
position.  Never a great outside shooter, Glide has consistently averaged
well over 20 ppg for the past decade, while improving his rebounding and
defense to exploit his 6'7" frame.  Amazingly, his rebounding has been good
enough to make up for most of the board work that Houston gave up when they
sent OT to the Blazers!  I was one of the many doubters when the trade was
made, but Clyde brings something to the Rockets that they've lacked since
Ralph Sampson's knees gave out -- a consistent second scoring option who
draws the defense's attention away from Hakeem.  That more than anything is
why Houston has gone so far in this year's playoffs and why Hakeem is the
leading scorer in the postseason at over 32ppg.  His only real weakness is
his tendency to settle for outside shots too often instead of posting up
the normally much smaller man defending him -- Glide is a decent but not
great outside shooter, but a deadly driver and open court player.

MARIO ELIE fills the sixth man role to near perfection, making him the most
important piece of Houston's underrated bench in my opinion.  Most people
would never think of Elie when they're listing the league's top sixth men,
but in my opinion that's ignorance.  Elie does all the dirty work you want
>from your sixth man: scoring, defense, rebounding, and a little ball
handling.  What makes him particularly effective is his consistency --
while he won't give you 20 points very often, he almost always hits about
half of his shots and he doesn't make many stupid mistakes.  His nerves of
steel, developed from years of play on the New York playgrounds and his
years in the CBA, were best illustrated when he stepped up and hit the
three pointer than sent the Suns home this year with seven seconds left in
game seven.  I'm sure that the Blazers wish they could have him back!

TIM BREAUX has shown flashes of excellence, but will require some serious
work.  That said, I expect Houston to protect him in the expansion draft
while leaving Mad Max open for scarfing.

VERNON MAXWELL has probably played his last game as a Rocket.  He does not
fit into Rudy's mold of a team of egoless players willing to play as a team
without regard for who gets the minutes.  I expect him to be made available
in the expansion draft, shopped to other teams, or waived.

Grade: A-


SMALL FORWARD
-------------
Starter: Robert Horry
Backups: Mario Elie, Chucky Brown, Clyde Drexler

ROBERT HORRY is something of an enigma.  Touted by many two years ago as
the next Scottie Pippen (question: has the "next" anybody ever played up to
their protege?), he clearly isn't that.  The player he most resembles is
another perennial "budding star" - Derrick McKey.  After playing center at
Alabama, Horry's offense now mostly consists of three pointers and the
occasional slashing slam dunk.  If anything, Horry is too unselfish -- he
prefers to pass off rather than take his man to the hole.  The result is
that he often disappears at the offensive end, finishing with 8 points on
2-7 shooting.  Already a solid outside threat, he could be much more.
Other than his erratic offense, Horry is your quintessential small forward.
He boards reasonably well, gets a handful of blocks per game, and plays
better than advertised defense.

Behind Horry it's bench by platoon.  Elie fills in, as does Chucky Brown
(see below) and Clyde Drexler depending on the matchup and what Rudy is
trying to do.  Not great, but not bad either.

Grade: B


POWER FORWARD
-------------
Starter: Carl Herrera
Backups: Pete Chilcutt, Chucky Brown

CARL HERRERA would be a solid starting power forward if he weren't so
fragile.  His shoulder seems to pop out of joint every time he sneezes.
When healthy, Herrera provides the dirty work that Houston wants from its
power forward -- decent boardwork, solid offense inside, and workman
defense.  Houston went on a tear early in the season when Thorpe was
injured, so Herrera is capable of holding his own.  Unfortunately, it isn't
clear if he'll ever be healthy long enough to be counted upon.  Due to
Herrera's injury problems and the lack of a dependable reserve, power
forward is clearly Houston's weakest link.

Behind Carl are a couple of CBA-quality retreads.  PETE CHILCUTT is a good
outside shooter for somebody his size, but he's not the kind of guy you
want banging against the likes of Karl Malone and Charles Barkley on a day
to day basis.  He needs to bulk up a *lot* if he ever wants to become a
good rebounder, and he has hands of stone.  I expect Houston will attempt
to resign Petey, but he'll never be more than a journeyman off of the
bench.  The other option Rudy has is CHUCKY BROWN, a true CBA retread.
Most people, including Barkley, hadn't heard of Chucky before this year's
playoffs, but after the well documented trash talking tourney between him
and Barkley in the second round, people are starting to appreciate what he
brings to a team.  No ego, just hard work, solid defense, ok boards, and ok
offense.  That pretty much defines Houston's team concept.  He's nothing to
write home about, but Chucky is the kind of down and dirty blue collar
player that every team needs on their bench.  I hope they resign him -- he
brings a lot to the team.

Grade: C-


CENTER
------
Starter: Hakeem Olajuwon
Backups: Charles Jones, Zan Tabek, Carl Herrera

HAKEEM OLAJUWON...  what can you say about Dream that hasn't been said?
His stats are up from last year's MVP season, and if not for Houston's
terrible regular season play, he likely would've been right in the hunt
again this year.  He had some problems with anemia in midseason, but his
total schooling of Robinson and the destruction of the centerless Jazz and
Suns demonstrates what a healthy Hakeem is capable of doing.  Quite simply,
he is the best center to play since Kareem, and probably the most dominant
player in the league.  He finished in the top ten in four major statistical
categories this year (scoring, rebounding, blocks, and steals (!)), and
despite all of Mutumbo's woofing, Hakeem is the league's best defensive
player.  All in all, you don't get much better than Dream...  all time.

Unfortunately, as rosy as things look at the starting position, things look
pathetic behind Hakeem.  Houston keeps picking up journeyman centers and
second round draft picks hoping that one will pan out, but Hakeem still has
to play 40+ minutes per game without a quality backup.  Houston's current
pine warmers are ZAN TABAK, the Croation wonder who you can't stop -- you
can only hope to contain (HA!), and 38-year old CHARLES JONES, a defensive
pickup for the playoffs.  Add both together and you don't get enough of a
player to carry bags, let alone give Houston quality minutes while Hakeem
is on the bench.  Whoever Houston picks up in the offseason to boost up
the power forward situation should be capable of playing 8-10 minutes at
center as well.

Grade: A (A+ if there was any depth)


COACH
-----

Some people will probably think that I'm nuts, but RUDY TOMJANOVICH is
among the top three coaches in the league after only three seasons.  The
only other coaches I would put in Rudy's league are Pat Riley, Larry Brown,
and Lenny Wilkens.  Rudy has shown himself to be a good evaluator of
talent, picking up Horry and Cassell late in the first round to end
Houston's eight year drought of wasted first round picks.  He is your
consummate player's coach -- other than the soon to be dearly departed
Maxwell, his players love him.  He communicates their roles, gives them
predictable playing time, and doesn't get down on them when they screw up.
He has done a masterful job of mixing a bunch of journeyman together with
two stars and coming up with something that is better than the sum of its
parts.  One thing that Rudy really wants from his players is somebody who
will play as part of a TEAM rather than as an individual.  Hakeem's famous
line about the Rockets needing to stay "Humble and Hungry" is a perfect tag
line of a Rudy T coached team.

Grade: A


SUMMARY OF NEEDS: Interior depth and rebounding.  More consistent point
guard play, especially defensively.


II.  My selection (and why)

KURT THOMAS from TCU.  This late in the draft, I am pretty much making a
stab in the dark trying to find a sleeper who can fill a hole in Houston's
lineup.  Although I'm concerned about Thomas's general lack of athleticism,
he has the potential to bring Houston the rebounding and interior defense
(2.4 bpg) that they need so badly.  I can't ignore 14.6 rebounds per game!
Thomas led the NCAA in scoring and rebounding last year, but the SWC isn't
exactly brimming with good big men to challenge him.  Having watched both
during my days at Rice, I would say that Thomas is a better inside scorer
and rebounder than Herrera, but Carl is a much better athlete.  I'm hoping
that Thomas can come in and provide Houston with 15-20 minutes of time off
the bench, grabbing 5-8 rebounds and scoring 6-10 points.  If he could do
that, I would consider the pick to be a success.  I wouldn't be surprised
if he does even better than that eventually, but then again, I wouldn't be
surprised if he totally flopped.  Such is the second round.


III.  Others considered (in order of preference)

The pickings are a bit slim, but a couple of other players I would consider
are:

JASON CAFFEY from Alabama.  I was *very* tempted by Caffey (and Amechi).
Houston has had some success with Alabama players in the past (Buck Johnson
and Robert Horry), and Caffey has the size to be a good rebounder in the
NBA.

JOHN AMECHI from Penn State has an NBA body and has developed nicely during
his years at PSU.  He's also a heady player with a great work ethic, which
means he would probably fit nicely into Rudy T's team concept.  He's a bit
bigger than Thomas, which would be a definite plus when it comes to
spelling Hakeem off the bench.

Going a bit deeper into my list, I would also be interested in finding a
point guard who can play some defense (Smith and Cassell's ole' defense
drive me nuts).  Two possibilities to fill that role are JEROME ALLEN of
Penn and COREY BECK of Arkansas.  I don't know if Houston really wants to
bring in a third point guard, especially given Smith's fragile ego, but if
there's no decent big man available.  Finally, one other option is LAWRENCE
MOTEN from Syracuse, who is large enough to play swing guard and might be
a real sleeper.


IV.  Who the team will probably take?

Rudy seems to have a pension for picking up solid players deep in the
draft, so I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them pick up a sleeper
who's the "best player available" if their favorite power forwards are
gone.  One option is a defensive minded guard who can play both the point
and a little bit of 2-guard.

Given the depth of this year's power forward crop, an interesting option
that Houston might well pursue is trading up into the middle of the first
round to pick one of Bennett, Vaughn, Burrough, or Henderson.  It's too bad
that they let Portland write the draft choice contingency into the trade,
or else they'd already be in a position to pick up one of those players.


V.  Other moves the team should make

Clearly Houston's most serious off season need is to bring in at least one
more capable front line player.  There are not many available as free
agents, and Tomjanovich has been quoted as being uninterested in the best
of the bunch, Anthony Mason.  Apparently Rudy doesn't like Mason's me-first
attitude, which (like Riley) runs completely against Rudy's philosophy.  If
neither the free agent market nor the draft give Houston the PF they need,
don't be surprised to see Houston make a trade to bring in a big man.  They
have been good at bringing in bench role players for #2 picks lately (Scott
Brooks, Mario Elie).

Other than bolstering the front line, Houston needs to move Mad Max -- he's
pretty much burned all of his bridges in Houston (blown them up, pissed on
the remains, etc. etc.) and won't play in the Rocket red again.  If they
can get something for him, all the better.

Of course, the move I'd most like to see them make is down Main Street in a
parade after winning their second straight NBA championship!

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