As happens every year, the Bullets miss out on the top
players.  As seems to happen every year, the Bullets are
represented by:

  Jim Nagle .

With the 4th pick, the Bullets select:

  Ed O'Bannon, SF, 6-8.  UCLA

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Bad luck strikes again as Bullets fall 2 places in lotto.
If they had fallen even only 1 spot I would have a much
easier time and have taken either Smith, Wallace or Stack,
whoever was available. as is I select Ed OBannon. Bullets
will probably trade this pick in the "real world".

Others considered: Big Country, Cherokee Parks and at the
top of others considered Mcdyess.

Bullets team analysis

My 3rd consecutive year of writing this. Much of
this seems uncomfortably familiar now.

	The Bullets finished tied with MIN for the 2nd worst 
record in the league. This is a situation which I would not have 
predicted at the outset of the season. I thought they at least
had a chance to compete for a playoff spot.  I was seriously
delusional in that prediction. I got worse after they started
the season by beating ORL and CHI, going 4-1 with the loss
coming on a (IMHO) controversial no call in PHL. Things
looked pretty good. Howard was not yet signed and we were
still winning. Things would change, dramatically.
Tom Gugliotta, a very promising and popular player
was traded for Chris Webber and 3 #1s; Juwan Howard signed
a contract; all in the space of 90 minutes. Things were really
looking up now, or were they? They lost a home game vs BOS
when Chapman fouled Dee Brown at midcourt with virtually
no time left just after Cheaney had made a  basket to give WAS
a late lead. WAS lost, lost some more, then lost some more. The losing
streak began when Muresan went out for a short stretch. He had
been backing up Duckworth and doing a good job by providing
a reliable scorer for the 2nd unit. Things went from bad to worse.

Position by position analysis

Center

Duckworth began the season  completely *UN*like the
player that had finished the previous season looking like a
sorry excuse for a pro wrestler. Not that he was doing great
or anything but at least he was providing some competitive
minutes in the middle. His conditioning initially appeared to be
pretty decent. But it didn't last. Duck has definitely worn out his
welcome in WAS. He was suspended 2x for being out of shape
although I think team management used that as an excuse
during periods when they had a roster crunch to deal with.
I don't blame them for doing so though as Duckworth has
been totally worthless for the last 3/4 of this season and
for the majority of his tenure here. WAS
desparately hopes an expansion team will pick him up.
Pretty unlikely. WAS may even offer incentives for 1 of
them to do so. The only reason it's even conceivable he could
be back is to maintain a large salary slot. This of course depends
on what the new rules in the CBA allow. I think he has 1 more
year on his contract at between 2.5 and 3 M.
	Muresan became the starter by midseason and did a fine
job. As most people know he is: HUGE 7-7, >300lb; slow; tall;
has a fine shooting touch (actually has pretty good hand-eye
coordination); young; inexperienced; enthusiastic; popular.
Oh, did I mention that he is tall. And slow. And improving
pretty rapidly. He is definitely an intriguing player for WAS.
Being very slow, most teams tried to exploit that weakness
by running their centers out or (in the 1/2 court) moving their
C outside. It worked pretty effectively in many instances.
However, it should also be stated that few, if any teams had an
answer for Ghitza in the low post. He ended up shooting 56%
for the season, his 2nd year over 55%. Chris Webber was quoted
as saying he likes playing with Ghitza, probably because he knows
he won't play C with #77 on the floor. One fascinating thing to
watch is even relatively big  opposing Cs having to make adjustments
due to being so much *smaller* than Ghitza. Muresan could be
the Bullets C for a long time to come barring injury. Bullet Fs
(especially Howard and Webber) will need to learn to cover for 
Ghitza in transition defense.
	Jim McIlvaine, a rookie C out of Marquette, started the
year hurt with an ankle injury. When he finally was activated
he showed pretty good defensive instincts, blocking shots and taking
charges but like many rookies, was foul prone. He has a limited
offensive game but generally played within himself on O. If he
can learn to stay out of foul trouble, he could be an effective
backup at least.

Forwards:
	The Bullets appear to be in very good shape here. This of course
is assuming they retain Webber. All current indications are that
they will although Rick Bru's reminder of last year's similar 
scenario are some cause for concern. I personally don't feel CW's PR
could withstand a repeat of last year's  story in GS.  My analysis
will assume that CW is here for the duration. CW had a pretty
good year, improving on his ROY numbers in most categories
except notably FG% where he dropped from 55->49%. This 
is probably due to shot selection and WAS' need for Chris to
put up big numbers. Hopefully, in the years to come Chris's
FG% will return to somewhere closer to his rook numbers
and not continue towards DC type PF numbers. He is only
22 (as is Howard) and many feel his potential is as great as
any other young player with the  exception of Shaq. I actually
liken him to a PF version of Shaq but he is a considerably better
passer and had a couple of triple doubles. The last 20 or so 
games of the season Chris was an absolute monster. If WAS
can resign Webber, they will be set at the PF position for the 
duration. Chris's biggest weakness is FT shooting at <50%. He 
has vowed to work to improve those numbers.
	Juwan Howard joined the team after holding out for
the first 7 or so games. Juwan eventually had to accept Adams'
old salary slot of 1.3M after the moratorium on renegotiation
took affect. This was considerably less than the players selected
near him in the draft. He can become a RFA after next year.
Juwan came in already in very good shape, got a dbl-dbl his first
game, was just a little inconsistent for his first 5-10 games
then became Mr Consistency scoring in double figures for nearly
40 consecutive games, a streak only broken by injury.
His low post game is *very* polished (moreso than CW) and he 
has  decent range on his jumper to around 18 ft or so. He also
handles the ball reasonably well in both the open and half court.
The teamwork between Howard and Webber was truly a thing
of beauty on a number of occaisons. He also rebounded  well 8+/gm.
After starting poorly from the ft line got steadily better as
the season progressed finishing at 65+%. For a significant portion
of the season while Webber was out with a sep shoulder, Juwan
was pretty clearly the Bullet's best player. He is also an excelent
role model, community philanthropist and now a graduate of
UMich after taking correspondance courses while playing his
rookie years.  I was a little surprised by his not making 1st team
all rookie rather than BGrant but no big deal. It'll just motivate
Juwan all the more. He and BGrant had very similar stats with
Juwan having a slight edge via tendex.
	The only "problem" is that CW and Juwan have similar
games and physical size. Against some teams with smaller, quicker
SFs, this could be exploited but WAS should be able to exploit it
at their end as well. I do not see this as a major problem having
seen how well they play together on the floor.
	Other forwards for WAS were Calbert Cheaney (also a SG)
Mitchell Butler (also a SG), Don MacLean, Larry Stewert,
rookie Anthony Tucker and vet Kenny Walker. MacLean
missed a large number of games with tendinitus in the knees
followed by a broken hand suffered in a New Years Eve altercation 
at a local resturant/bar. When he returned late in the season he
was ineffective shooting (and if MacLean can't shoot, he isn't
too valuable). Stewert hardly played and will be exposed in the
expansion draft. Stewert is the classic PF in a sf body.
Walker is an UFA and could end up who knows 
where next year. Tucker was a valuable pickup, started for a
good portion of the season and was especially effective defensively.
He was released late in the season as management prepared for
the expansion draft. It would be nice to retain Tucker for next
season if that is possible. He did an especially good job guarding
GRob and similar SFs.

Guards
	The situation here is considerably murkier. Skiles and
Chapman began the year as starters and both ended the year
injured. I left Chapman exposed in the expansion draft. I like
his abilities and think he has finally "come of age" although
his shooting slumped badly this year as did some other quality
guards around the league (ie Starks). I personally don't feel
his defense is quite as bad as some do but I don't mean to leave
the impression that I think he is anything more than average
in that dept. The biggest reason I left him exposed was his
lack of durability. I would like to retain him as a backup for
Cheaney if possible but if he goes, so be it.  His relatively high
salary also was a consideration (2M+).
	Cheaney finished the year as the starter or would have
but for an illness. He improved somewhat over his rookie year,
showed flashes of greatness a bit more often but still needs to
work on consistency. He gives the appearence of a lackadaisical
attitude on occaison but some might appreciate what could
alternatively be described as emotional stability. Improvements in
consistency and aggressiveness on both the offensive and defensive 
ends could elevate Calbert to AllStar or near allstar status. But
that could be said about alot of other players too. CC benefitted as
much as any player in the league from the closer 3 pt line.
As a rookie he went nearly the entire season before hitting his only 1
and he took a significant number. This year he had a long stretch
of games where he made at least one every game.
	Mitchell Butler also made improvements on his rookie
performance. Last year he lamost never hit an open jumper.
This season hit shot and made alot more including a surprising
number of 3 pointers. He is one of the Bullets best defensive players
and can handle players a bit bigger than he (6-5). He is very
athletic and had a number of spectacular dunks, second in this
dept on WAS to CW. He needs to work a little harder on finishing
near the basket especially now that his outside shot has improved.
If Chapman departs which is very possible, Mitch will be the primary
backup 2 guard.
	At the point WAS figured to have Skiles and some combination
of Price and/or Overton. Skiles seemed to be a good pickup
partly because the price was so right. They got him *and* a
1st round pick from ORL for a 2nd round pick. Such was the cost
of a salary slot under the old CBA. He is now a free agent and
will not be back in WAS. He brought some fire, some 3 pt shooting
but did not fit in well after the changes with CW's arrival.
If he had been able to defend at least a little bit better he would
still be a very effective player. Unfortunately for WAS he was
routinely abused off the dribble forcing defensive rotations leading
to open shots. More than anything else, I would like to see WAS
obtain a ball hawking PG to set the pace for their entire defense
and create more easy baskets and running opportunities. Rumors
have WAS pursueing a number of PGs around the league including
UFAs Barros, Elliot Perry or Workman. IMHO, Barros might be good but
they would probably have to overpay to get him. Plus WAS fans
might not react to yet another 5-10 3 pt shooting PG from BC.
Perry might be better yet, especially defensively. Other rumors
I consider less feasible have players including Mark Price, KAnderson
and Rod Strickland coming here. Depending on what they have to
give up to get them, any of these could turn WAS into a real
contender and probably sooner rather than later. Rod Strickland
is probably the most likely of these if Portland is interested in
the 4th overall pick for him. 
	Brent Price spent the entire year rehabbing after a blown
ACL during the summer league play. He was released near the
end of the season for reasons related to the expansion draft. 
	Doug Overton struggled mightily for much of the season
but became a starter late when Skiles went down with a wrist
injury. He seemed totally out of sync until that time. As a starter
he was still somewhat erractic but put up OK numbers overall.
He has pretty good quickness as you would hope to see in a PG.
This was much more obvious on the offensive end. In particular
there was a game vs MIA late in the season where Khalid Reeves
singlehandedly beat WAS driving the middle repeatedly in the
4th Q. If Overton wants to be anything more than a marginal
player, he needs to put his quickness to use on both ends of the
floor. In the mock expansion draft he was protected only because
I did not wish to have none of the current PGs at least possibly
available should management be completely thwarted in getting
a FA PG or trading for one. That and his salary was much lower
than Chapman's who was the alternative player considered for
the 8th spot on the protected list. Butler, MacLean or McIlvaine
are other possibilities for being left unprotected. Contrary to what
has been repeated on RSPB, WAS has 11 roster players and hence 
will expose 3: Duckworth(less), Stewert and ?????.

Overall analysis
	Why was this team so bad? Well Brooks Robinson on Orioles
broadcasts used to explain things by saying '...it's a combination
of factors'. No one thing could account in my mind anyway for
WAS dismal performance at the bottom line of wins. Youth
and injuries explain alot but all teams have injuries and some
manage to still do well ie CLE. Dallas is the only younger team
but they did much better. Some have questioned Lynam's abilities
as a coach. He may not be Slick (Pat Riley) but he's not Allan Bristow
or Kevin Loughery either. They may just be cursed, who knows.
After yesterday's continuation of lottery BAD luck I can think of
no other explanation. WAS and MIN have been shafted worse
than any other teams in the lottery, have never moved up, only down.
	As bad as they have been for the last 8-10 years, Bullet fans 
can still reminisce about a Championship. Only 7 teams have won a
title more recently. WAS has had consistently bad luck in the
lottery. It would have been ironic if they won the lottery this year
when there are no real franchise type player available. Several
pretty good players but the apparently more promising ones
are coming out prematurely IMO. Although WAS does not
need PF type players, I could see them taking Wallace or Smith.
The advantage to doing this is that they could have more time
to develop physically as they would not play much behind 
Howard/Webber. This would give WAS tremendous depth at
the size positions in future years.  The player WAS would most
like is probably Stackhouse. Trading down to get a Stoudamire
or some other PG is another possibility should WAS was feel
less than  enthusiastic about who is available where they wind
up picking. Alan Sepinwall suggested to me that Jerome Allen
might be a good 2nd round pick if available. I like him if what
I hear about his defensive abilities is true. He also has good size
which is definitely an asset at the NBA level. I spoke with Micheal
Wilbon on a radio call in show and he does not like Stoudamire 
because of his FG%. The question in my mind there is whether
he would be another Lindsey Hunter or NVE, both of whom shot
low percentages as collegians. I have no idea which is closer to the
truth. I hope John Nash does. From reports in the media, it seems
that WAS will probably draft the BPA and look to solve their
PG problems through trade or free agency.

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