Houston has the 22nd pick and

  John Carter

is their GM.  Every year that I have done the Usenet draft, John
has been the Rockets GM and every year he has a low pick.  Every
year John steals a player that has slipped further in the Usenet
draft then they should (who can forget Eddie Jones two years ago).

This year John steals, I'm selects:

  Steve Nash, PG, 6-3, Santa Clara

======================================================================
I. Team Needs/History

    In the mania following Chicago's awesome regular season and
blitzkrieg through the playoffs, people are quick to forget that the
previous two NBA titles went to the Rockets.  Houston's less than
stellar bout with the Sonics in the second round (a 4-0 sweep) did not
help.  However, when the 96-97 season gets rolling, anybody who
doesn't consider Houston to be one of the top contenders for the title
is a fool.  Any team built around future Hall of Famers Hakeem
Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler is deadly.  Toss in Tomjanovich's uncanny
ability to mix and match role players, and the team's amazing
chemistry, and you have a recipe for success.  Note that three of the
four losses to Seattle came down to the final minute, including the
20-point 4th-qtr comeback in Game 4 to take it to overtime...
Although 0-4 sucks, they were amazingly close given how poorly they
match up with Seattle.  Natchups, man, it's all about matchups.  I
sincerely believe that the only team that could have stopped Chicago
was the Rockets, who match up very well with the Bulls when healthy.

Houston's 95-96 season can be summed up succinctly: injury problems.
I don't think any team suffered as many serious and varied injuries to
its top seven players as Houston.  If the season had ended two weeks
later, Houston might have done a lot better in the playoffs, as
several of their top performers (Drexler, Cassell, and Horry) were
less than 100% throughout the playoffs.  Olajuwon fought through a
series of niggling problems.  Horry's chronic knee problems flared up
several times.  Drexler succumbed to aging joints.  Elie broke his
wrist severely in a nasty "take down" by Jalen Rose (I think it was
Rose).  Cassell had problems with his elbows.  Hell, at one point,
Houston's injured reserve looked like an NBA championship team with
Olajuwon, Drexler, Cassell, Horry, and Elie sitting out at the same
time!  The question is, how much of the injury trouble was due to bad
luck, and how much of it is endemic due to the fact that Houston's
superstars are aging, and their young studs are injury prone?  I think
a little of both, which is why Houston will need to draft and sign
free agents with an eye towards depth and physical condition.

Ok, enough whining about the last injury-riddled year.  After two
straight awesome seasons, it's easy to get spoiled.  Before I move on
to the position by position analysis, let me just say that it's been
amazing to watch the Rocket franchise transform itself from the days
when everybody in Houston *knew* they would choke into the well-oiled
*team* that they are today.  Tomjanovich is a god...


    A. CENTER: What can I say.  Although some people prefer the
flashier Shaquille O'Neal or Mr. Regular Season (Robinson), if I had
to go to war (aka the playoffs), I would take HAKEEM over any other
center in the NBA with no hesitation.  He regularly dominates both
ends of the court, even when matched up against the other elite
centers.  Basically, he does it all: low post scoring, mid range
jumpers, passing out of the double/triple team, rebounding, man to man
defense, "team" defense -- you name it, he dominates it.  It seems
pointless to continue to extol his virtues, since they're pretty well
known, so I'll speak for a moment about his few weaknesses.  As was
made abundantly clear in the Seattle series, and was known to most
Houston fans for much longer, Hakeem's biggest problems on offense
come when he is defended by one or two *fast* players strong enough to
keep him from completely bullying them around, such as Kemp, Rodman,
or Mason.  That combined with a well executed rotating trap is just
about the only way to slow him down.  This pretty much explains why
Houston has done so poorly against Seattle over the last two years --
their defense is perfect against Houston's offense.

Behind Hakeem, Houston doesn't have much, but since Hakeem can play
36-40 minutes per night, they don't need much.  The two backup center
options are MARK BRYANT, who is really a power forward, and Charles
Jones, who's 100% defense, 0% offense.  Bryant is big body, which
makes him an adequate sub for Hakeem.  He has a decent low post
offensive game (to go with absolutely no outside game), and can
outmuscle your average NBA reserve.  He's overmatched against the
elite centers and power forwards, but is a solid backup at both power
positions.  Jones has helped in pinches, but should be gone next year.


    B. POWER FORWARD: Here lies Houston's weakest link.  As a team,
Houston's most glaring problem is their lack of rebounding.  A lot of
that has to do with the way they play aggressive trapping/switching
defense, and the fact that Hakeem usually concentrates on blocking the
weak side shooter's shot rather than setting up for the defensive
board.  However, it would help if the power forward were somebody
other than CHUCKY BROWN or Mark Bryant (see above).  Brown is better
than most people assume (Chucky Who?), but he's not good enough to
force his man to stay at home on offense or sweep the offensive boards
if they do.  He's also not big/strong enough to control the better
opposing PFs, which leaves Houston with a matchup problem.  He has
games when he gets hot on offense, mostly by sneaking in for put backs
when his man slides over to double Hakeem, but he isn't the answer.
The fact that he has filled in so admirably is a sign of how good
Tomjanovich is at finding nuggets of talent in the CBA and other
unlikely spots.  He'd be fine off the bench, but not who you want to
have starting for your championship contender.

Houston is at its best when ROBERT HORRY slides over to the power
forward position, but Horry doesn't have the size or stamina to play
PF for extended periods of time, especially during the regular season.
More on Robert below.


    C. SMALL FORWARD: Houston is fairly set at the small forward
position, what with ROBERT HORRY and MARIO ELIE both being above
average contributors.  While immensely talented, Horry is inconsistent
and injury prone, so I can't say they're completely set.  Watching and
rooting for Horry can be really frustrating.  In many ways, he is the
prototypical small forward, a poor man's Scottie Pippen.  He is an
excellent, if streaky, 3-point shooter, can take the ball to the
basket with authority, is a solid rebounder, and an excellent shot
blocker.  On the other hand, he has far too many 1-6, 2-8, or 3-10
games to be somebody that you can really count on.  What he really
lacks is an in between game.  If he gets the ball open behind the arc,
he usually drains it.  If he takes the ball all the way to the hole,
or is hit while slashing to the hoop, he is a great finisher (he
generates the most highlight film jams on the team).  However, he
cannot take the ball outside, make a few moves, create his own shot,
and pull up for the eight foot jumper.  This lets the defensive player
jam him behind the line and then once he makes a move to the hoop,
slide all the way back to the hole knowing he won't pull up.  Houston
fans say it all the time, but Robert needs to be more agressive on
offense, and look to create more shots for himself.  When he's
hitting, Houston is hard to beat.  On defense, Horry can pretty much
play any small forward one-on-one, as well as most shooting guards and
non-brute power forwards.  He's tall, has really long arms, and is
quick, which is enough to stop most offensive players.

Behind Robert are Houston's swing players, Mario Elie and Clyde
Drexler.  Elie is a stereotypical Tomjanovich role player.  He plays
his heart out, never stops hustling, knows his role, and contributes a
hell of a lot to the team.  Although he's usually the third or fourth
option on offense, Elie is capable of hitting the open 3 or creating
his own shot (often a driving finger roll from about three feet out).
His dagger-in-the-heart, kiss-them-goodbye shot against Phoenix last
year is still one of my all time favorite sequences.  Although he's
not particularly tall or quick, Elie is quite strong and hustles like
made, making him a good defender.  He can be outquicked, but it's hard
to out smart or out hustle Super Mario.


    D. SHOOTING GUARD: Although he only has a couple of years left in
him (I'd guesstimate two), CLYDE DREXLER is still one of the league's
elite 2-guards.  Never a spectacular outside shooter, which sets him
apart from most of Houston's backcourt, Clyde excels as the second
offensive option behind Hakeem.  He usually defers to Hakeem or the
three point bombers (Horry, Elie, Cassell, and Smith), but when
Houston needs a bucket, Clyde can and does usually create.  He's most
dangerous going to the hole, since at 6'7"+, he towers over most other
shooting guards.  With only Olajuwon, Drexler, and Cassell being able
to create their own shots, this is a critical skill.  Drexler is also
an excellent rebounder (something Houston desperately needs) and a
decent defender, which is pretty much why he is consistently an NBA
All Star.  His primary deficiencies are his age, and thus his injury
problems, and the fact that he's not fast enough to keep up with some
of the mighty mites of the NBA.  Luckily, with Hakeem behind him, he
can afford to take risks on defense without giving up a definite
layup.

Clyde's first backup is Mario Elie (see above).  During the rash of
injuries, Tomjanovich managed to find a couple of additional diamonds
in the rough from the CBA and Europe: ELDRIDGE (Eldridge?) RECASNER
and SAM MACK (who?).  Although hardly household names, I've liked what
little I've seen of both.  Mack is the better offensive player, who
seems to be able to score in bunches and has the shooting mentality of
a veteran.  Recasner is the better ballhandler.  Neither is a great
defender, but as 8th and 9th men, they are above average, since they
really can contribute (as seen by how well they performed during the
injury riddled portions of last season).


    E. POINT GUARD: This is the one position on the Rockets that is
almost guaranteed to see a shake up in the offseason.  KENNY SMITH has
been Houston's starting point guard for most of the last five years,
but his contract expired and nobody expects him to be resigned.  Kenny
was the brunt of frustration for many Rocket fans, but I had a lot of
respect for the way that he handled getting benched last year.  He
didn't complain, played his ass off in practice, eventually won his
starting job back, and in general was a real team player and class
act.  Although I can't say I'm sorry to see Kenny (and his huge
contract) go, he did himself proud.

The heir apparent at the point is everybody's favorite clown prince of
hoops, Sam "Sam, I am" Cassell.  Personality-wise, you could not ask
for a better player -- Sam always seems to be having a good time,
firing up his fellow players, and making sure the Rockets maintain a
mental edge.  He is a deadly three point shooter when left open, and
has the speed and moves to get by basically any defender.  He can
defintely create his own shot, some of which are amazing, and he is
not afraid to take it inside right at the other team's shot blocker.
On the downside, he has an unnerving tendency to miss the layup/finger
roll after faking his man's jock into the second row.  He also has a
bad tendency to call his own number on offense too often, especially
when Houston has been struggling and really need to reestablish its
offense through Hakeem or Clyde.  It will be interesting to see how
Cassell reacts to his new starting position.  He could easily become
as good as Kevin Johnson or Rod Strickland, the solid second tier of
star point guards who also tend to call their own number too often.
Sam can use some work on defense -- despite his speed, he tends to get
caught leaning the wrong way too often, and has trouble with quicker
guards.

Behind Cassell it'll be point guard by committee.  Recasner took over
the starting job from Smith for a while in the second half of the
season, and actually looked pretty good.  However, until he develops
more, he's at best a part time fill in.  Look for Houston to try to
bring in a veteran guard who can backup Cassell some time during the
offseason.


    F. COACHING/FRONT OFFICE: A few years ago I would have never
thought I could say this, but Houston has one of the best front office
and coaching staffs in the league.  RUDY TOMJANOVICH is probably the
most underrated coach in the league, turning a team that had very
little chemistry and guts and turning them into a well-oiled machine
that won two straight championships.  He is a player's coach, and his
players know exactly what their role is, something that you cannot say
about most teams.  Sometimes the players cannot adapt to Rudy's plans
for them (witness bad boy Vernon Maxwell), but in general Rudy gets
the most out of each player possible.  A master of evaluating talent,
Rudy has amazed most observers, including yours truly, at his ability
to find diamonds in the rough with low draft choices (Horry and
Cassell), languishing on the bench of other teams (Elie and Bryant),
and in the CBA (Brown, Recasner, and Mack).  The only real mistake
that he has made is trading away Popeye Jones for a second round pick,
after sending him to Europe for a year for conditioning -- Houston
could use him.


    G. SUMMARY: Houston has a lot of talent at key positions (C, SG),
good young players at others (SF, PG), decent depth (Elie, Bryant,
Mack/Recasner), excellent coaching, and amazing team chemistry.  What
they really lack is youth, a bit of depth, and a high quality power
forward.  Look for them to work to remedy these problems in the
offseason to ready themselves for one of their last serious runs at
the title before Drexler and Olajuwon retire.


II. My Selection (and an explanation)

    STEVE NASH, Point guard, Santa Clara (6'3" -> 6'1", 175#)

    If Nash slips this far, Houston will scoop him up in a flash.
Given Houston's need for depth at point guard and power forward, there
were quite a few talented players left on the board to choose amongst.
I expect Houston to sign the best player available in the draft, and
look to fill their other needs via free agency.  Given their luck with
finding Cassell deep in the draft a couple of years ago, I'm going to
hope that lightning strikes twice and they can steal another talented
point guard late in the first round.

    Although you can't really expect a point guard to come in and
contribute in a big way in their rookie season, Nash should provide a
nice counterpoint to Cassell's slashing, scoring, high energy style.
Nash is more of a pure point guard, looking to pass first, but able to
drain the outside shot if you don't respect his offense.  He looked
very good in the predraft camps, other than measuring in at only 6'1"
instead of the claimed 6'3".  He should be effective at running
Houston's half court offense, which sometimes bogs down with Cassell
running the show, and in general looks like a no-brainer pick to me.
On the Rockets, you need to be able to hit the outside shot if your
name isn't Olajuwon, and Nash's 40%+ 3PT-FG% and almost 90% FT% are
perfect fits.  His major weakness is his slow foot speed, which means
that he won't be any better than Smith or Cassell at stopping the
Kevin Johnson's of the league.  Lucky for Nash, you can afford to make
a few defensive mistakes with Hakeem and Horry behind you to clean up.


III. Others considered (and why considered)

    Other than Nash, the best prospects still available are big men,
which fits perfectly with Houston's other major need going in to the
draft.

    VITALY POTAPENKO, Center, Wright State (6'10", 285#) is probably
the best of the big men still on the board.  He had a great showing in
Chicago, and should have been picked by now.  He could step in and get
minutes right away, but not be pressured to contribute big minutes
while he gets used to the NBA game.

    EFTHIMIAS REDZIAS (various spellings), Center, Greece (6'11",
240#) is another intriguing foreign option, but he's under contract
with a team back in Greece for another year, so it'd be more of a long
term investment.  Houston might consider him, since they need to groom
a replacement for Olajuwon long term, but I don't think he'd go with
their #1.

    OTHELLA HARRINGTON, Power Forward, Georgetown (6'9", 240#) was an
intriguing option, but I don't think he'll be able to play power
forward in the NBA, and Houston doesn't really need another SF.

    MOOCHIE NORRIS, Point Guard, Auburn/West Florida (6'0", 175#) is
the second best point guard still available, and he reminds me a lot
of Cassell in terms of his game.  He's fast and can create his own
shot, but since Houston has that already in Cassell, I think Nash
would be a better option.

    ERIC GINGOLD, Center, Williams College (7'4", 300#) is the wild
card of the draft.  He could easily turn into the Mark Eaton or George
Muresan of this year's draft.  He's incredibly raw and inexperienced,
which means Houston wouldn't waste their first round pick on him, but
he's the kind of flier you take with second round picks in the hopes
that maybe, just maybe, the kid'll pan out.  As they say, you can't
teach size, and 7'4" is pretty intimidating.


IV. Who the team will probably take

    The analyses I've seen on nba.com, espnet, and in the papers are
all pretty accurate, which tells me that Houston's needs are fairly
obvious.  They are still good enough overall that they can afford to
draft the best player available, even if that means another swingman,
but given the choice, they'd prefer a power forward or backup center
or point guard.  I look for them to take the best player available
with their draft choice, and work to fill the positional needs through
the free agent market.  Given that, I really haven't a clue who
they'll take, since it'll be completely dependent on who is left on
the board and who has slipped the farthest.  Given the tendency of
guards to slip farther in the draft than big men, I would expect
Houston will end up drafting the best guard who's stock drops
unexpectedly (ala Nash in the USENET draft), or a surprise player that
Rudy likes (i.e., a Cassell or Horry).


V. Other moves the team should make

    Houston's free agents are: Tim Breaux, Mario Elie, Charles Jones,
Eldridge Recasner, and Kenny Smith.  Of these, only Elie could be
considered a "must sign" player, although I expect Houston to resign
at least one of Breaux or Recasner (probably Recasner).  Elie is
asking for a lot of money, so they need to put off signing him until
after they've done their best to sign one of the quality free agents
out there, using the money that not signing Kenny Smith ($2+ million
per year) plus the growth in the cap gives them.  Ideally they'll sign
a good young power player, and in my wet dreams that player would be
JUWAN HOWARD.  I expect Howard will demand a lot more than Houston can
afford to pay without exceeding the cap, even using Kenny's salary
money, but I can dream can't I?  I'm pretty sure Drexler is going into
the "bubble" year of his contract that pays something like $12 million
(payback from Portland for all those years of service at low pay),
which probably limits what they can do.  Then again, I haven't done my
homework enough to know what Houston's cap specifics are, and how much
of Clyde's salary is considered base level, so who knows.

Other than Howard, the only other free agents I would pursue if I were
Houston would be Indiana's power forward duo of Antonio and Dale
Davis, or Felton Spencer (all big men).  If they could sign one of the
elite free agents (Jordan, Payton, O'Neal, Grant), then of course
that'd be great, but let's get real.

Regarding the rumors that Houston is interested in Barkley, I'd only
trade for Chucky if the price were really cheap, at most one #1 pick,
and even that *I* wouldn't pay.  I don't see Barkley as sticking
around the league long enough, or being healthy enough, to help.

In summary, I expect them to pick the best draftee available, probably
a guard, sign a veteran forward/center, and resign Mario Elie.  If
they have a little bit more luck with injuries, that's all they really
need to do.  Certainly no major shakeups are in order.  With a little
better health, that would be more than enough to give them another
serious run at the title.