TEAM OVERVIEW

To put last season in a better light, however, this is a team that did an admiral job. They finished 12 games above their per 82 game mark last year from the previous year. Put in perspective that represented a 110% improvement in wins while suffering a heavy loss with the ACL injury to number 3 overall pick Raef LaFrentz. As bad as thier win total may have seemed, the team showed much progress. As they are moving into a new arena, showing promise over the next two years will be essential in keeping a fan base that is sure to increase with the excittement of a new arena.

The Nuggets had made some major moves last year, and were one of the busiest teams around. Some moves worked out, some didn't. Notably, the signing of McDyess cannot be understated. He had a monster year silencing his critics (including me) with a year deserving of his praise. He did well enough on a horrible team to merit consideration as an all-nba player (albeit 3rd team IMO because of the strength of the PF position in the NBA). He was the one player and hope that Denver can hang their hat on for the next decade.

The drafting of Raef LaFrentz also turned out to be a solid move. Certainly some questions were raised about this move, but LaFrentz easily held his own. No, he may not be as good as a few players drafted after him, but that is usually the case. The addition of Nick Van Exel helped as well, but if Denver fans were expecting an AS caliber PG, then they were sadly mistaken. Nick Van Exel, however, played fairly well and won some games for the team. Denver could have been worse at the PG spot. They probably now realize, however, that Nick Van Exel knees are not up to playing a running game for 30 minutes a game (much less 40).

The one haunting move was to bring in Billups. Essentially Denver traded away their first round pick for Billups. The trade was questioned at the time, and does not seem to make much sense unless the Nuggets do not expect to resign Nick Van Exel. While Billups had his moments, his overall play was reminscent of his rookie year when he shot poorly and didn't prove he was a capable PG at the pro level (and is just too short to play SG). The first round pick they gave away could have easily brought them a much needed SG in Hamilton, or a solid scoring SF like Szerzbiak. Billups is young and has upside, but is too reminicent of many too short SG's from college. At best he may be as good as Mamoud Abdul Rauf.

DRAFT HISTORY

Denver also seemed to be enamoured with raw undeveloped talent (Battie, McDyess) until last year when they went safe and drafted LaFrentz. I expect this trend would continue (if possible) as management is trying to gain credibility for the team. They have said as much to the press saying claiming they want to take a player who can contribute immediately.

POSITION ANALYSIS

Center

At the center position, LaFrentz starting with Fortson backing up is a very solid combination, even if LaFrentz is better suited to the PF position. LaFrentz got lost in the early season glitter of Jason Williams, the press Pierce got and the ESPN highlights of Carter. LaFrentz, however, turned in a very solid performance night in and out doing the job the Nuggets wanted him to do; Play on the run. While the numbers on LaFrentz were not particularily impressive, they were consistant with no real weaknesses in his game. Discounting his 4 minute injury game, he averaged 15.1 points, 8.3 boards 1.5 blocks and only .8 turnovers. While his 45.7 fg% was unimpressive for a center, his did shoot 39% from three point land giving him an effective fg% of 50.4% while shooting 75% from the line. This certainly is in line with many of the better C's in the league. His numbers, especially per minute (35 mpg) matched up with any rookie in the league. Fortson came in to play center after LaFrentz went down, and performed admirally as well given his undersized nature. He averaged 11.6 rpg in 28 mpg and would have won the rebounding title if he would have had the minutes throughout the year. 11 ppg of 49.5% shooting was acceptable. Basically, the Nuggets have no need to look big. LaFrentz's knee will of course be questioned, but the team is lacking in so many areas they would be better off to address the known deficiences and evaluate LaFrentz's physical health next year.

Power Forward

PF is set with McDyess and Fortson. Keon Clark also will bring some rebounding and shotblocking to the center and PF positions.

Small Forward

SF is a big hole. The Nuggets were hoping Eric Williams would return from injury to be a solid scoring threat last year, but it just did not happen. Williams only made it into 38 games barely averaging 20 minutes. His 36.5% fg% was dismal. All other aspects of his game were never good to begin with, and went as far downhill as was possible. If Denver cannot pick up a player for the SF position, it is possible they may start a front line of Fortson, LaFrentz and McDyess, but that leaves them very thin on the bench while severly hampering thier team speed and Issel has repeatably claimed he's trying to build a team for the break.

Shooting Guard

SG is another area where the Nuggets are weak. Brian Stith did not have a good year, and throughout his career has not been very effective with Denver. While he has few weaknesses, he is below average in many phases of the game. Denver experimented with Billups at SG, and are likely to keep starting him if only to try to justify trading away such a high pick for him. Its always a risk drafting a short SG from college. They are hard to convert to a PG, and just don't have the physical tools to play SG. Billups shot at a 38.6% clip, although his 35% three points percentage and 91.3 ft% helped. His boards were poor (~2 rpg), although his assists (~4 apg) were solid. Billups may yet become a solid SG, but with his third team in two years and only 6'3, he has many deficiencies to overcome.

Point Guard

The dismall shooting at SF and SG also extended to the PG position. Nick Van Exel was never known for his shot selection, and his 39.8% fg% certainly reflected that. His three point game really suffered without a big C to draw the double teams. Nick Van Exel, however, did contribute 7.2 apg and kept his his turnovers quite low (2.4 tpg). Nick Van Exel is a FA, howver, and Denver plans on playing a running game and Nick Van Exel knees just do not hold up. Its likely Denver envisions Billups as the PG of the future and Nick Van Exel will be allowed to walk without much protest. Rumors are the new owners line Nick Van Exel though, so a big play may be made to keep him around.

For these reasons I believe Denver will look at a SG or SF, which seems to be the best stocked position in this draft. Where Denver drafts, however, the landscape is dominated by the bigger players.

TEAM NEEDS

Denver wasn't bad at the boards being -1.6 boards per game. Given that Denver missed more shots than their opponents and defensive boards are easier to come by, this isn't much of a concern. Their turnovers were low and assists acceptable (considering their woeful offense).

What it comes down to was Denver was not scoring efficiently enough, and wasn't holding opponents down. They need a SF/SG who can score efficiently and can at least keep opposing players honest. Indeed, if they bring back Nick Van Exel to go with McDyess, Billups and LaFrentz, there are few shots to go around after those 4. Hence a defensive stopper at SF would be ideal, especially one that does not make a lot of mistakes on the offensive end. Rebounding and passing are not big problems, but defensive ability and taking high percentage shots are.

PLAYERS CONSIDERED

I considered the following players before the draft started (in order)

Shawn Marion - A 2/3 who is athletic, can run and play D. While Marion seems ideal, its unlikely he will drop this low. There has been questions about his attitude, but that may just be because he went to UNLV.

Ron Artest - Not likely to fall his low, Artest still is an intriguing prospect. Supposedly a better shooter than build, he can pass and board and seems to have a strong intangible rating.

James Posey - A SG/SF type who is just starting to develop. A risky pick, but seems strong defensively.

Quincey Lewis - Solid SG/SF who picked it up at the end of his career, notably offensively.

Lee Nailon - Depending upon whose list you are looking at, Nailon's position is all over the board. Rumors are however he's showing an outside touch and ball handling abilities coveted at the SF position. He may be just the player to take some offensive load off McDyess.

Kris Klack - Athletic defender who has no offensive skills.

Jonathon Bender - High School player could be a solid SF in the pro's. Would certainly generate fan interest.

Tim James - Too much a PF for Denvers needs.

Denver is interested in Posey (See http://www.denverpost.com/nuggets/nugs0617.htm) and also worked out Evan Eschmeyer although he's expected to go closer to 12th than 18th. They worked out Langdon but apparently were not that impressed although if he hangs around to the second round (not likely) Denver will gladly take him.

As well, looking at http://www.denverpost.com/nuggets/nba0619d.htm its obvious that Denver is interested in a SF type and certainly one of Artest, Posey or Lewsi should be available at 18.

SELECTION

James Posey is a player the Denevr fans would likely boo when chosen, but should make them happy in the future. He's not a big name and likely many Denver fans wouldn't know him, but he's a legitimate SF prospect. He's a decent three point shooter with excellent defensive skills. He has good shot selection, can rebound and seemed to be liked by the Nuggets during workouts.

THE TEAM WILL TAKE ...

Given that they are moving into a new arena, however, they may wish to keep the pick to signal to thier fans that they are ready to compete. While they could not get much with the pick, they may wish to try and trade down. For commodities (that they could trade) they have Fortson and the possibility of a sign and trade with Nick Van Exel. The Raptors are supposedly interested in Nick Van Exel, and may give their 12th pick for the 18 pick + Nick Van Exel on a sign and trade deal (the interest is coming out of the Toronto media) which would allow Denver a shot at Marion. Assuming Toronto wants Nick Van Exel (and they won't if they get Francis), they would probably want a big guy, and Denvers #18 position seems as good as #12.

I'll go out on a limb and say they will either forfeit the pick or trade down. Denver does not have the commodity needed to vault them into a top 7 position (pretty much the drop off level in sure talent in this draft), and hence I'd be mildly suprised if they moved up unless they could get a player they wanted (hence the deal would be done during the draft).

OTHER MOVES

While Denver could resign Nick Van Exel (don't expect a lot of interest in him on the FA market), I believe they would be better off letting him go and instead chasing some of the FA PG's that may be available, or at worst simply instilling Billups at the point.

As I said in the draft analysis, Denver needs a defensive oriented SF who doesn't make a lot of offensive mistakes. If someone is not available in the draft, then they have enough money available in the FA market to persue someone (although not a big name). Bo Outlaw and Micheal Curry are two free agents that could easily fill Denvers need for a team oriented defensive player. Denver should have about 5 - 7 million this year for FA's and that much next year as well. Players of a those two caliber can be had for about that amount (nad hopefully less). Instill a player with a hard working defensive attitude and it may parlay into enthusiasm for the other players. The chance of Bo resigning with Orlando seems slim (with Hardaway and Daly gone) and Curry may be interested in the playing time he would get with another team (as opposed to being behind Allen in Milwakee).