I. Team History

A Pat Riley team had never missed the playoffs. Even though the Heat had woefully underachieved in the postseason in recent years, they were still a model of stability in the regular season, even in the midst of severe turmoil. Riley has always had a way of rallying his players and getting the most out of them, thanks to his disciplinarian tactics. Given players with the right temperament, this had been a solid blueprint. But given the changing nature of the NBA along with considerably less success by Riley himself, the opportunity for meltdown was there. The seeds were planted in Miami's disgraceful 2001 playoff exit, a loss that was demoralizing for both players and coaches. What became clear after a season of overachieving without Alonzo Mourning is that Zo wasn't the same player anymore. And Riley had essentially bet the rent on Mourning being one of the best players in the league until his renal condition kicked in. Removing that one card brought down the rest of the deck. Riley certainly can't be blamed for not knowing about his condition, but depending so much on one player was risky business and he knew it.

The Heat started off 2-2 and then proceeded to lose their next 12 in a row. Half the team was injured, with only Eddie Jones providing a steady presence from night to night. The team was erratic inside and from the perimeter, with little leadership at the point guard spot. This was mostly a result of a disastrous offseason, with solid players from 2001 looking elsewhere after being brushed aside by the Heat, but with no good replacements coming in. Losing Tim Hardaway was a bigger blow than expected. His injury problems had plagued the team for years, but they immediately missed his playmaking, scoring and leadership. Losing Bruce Bowen's defense also hurt the team as much as any other player defection. And without the eclectic contributions of Anthony Mason, there was no one with the heart to pull the group together. The team lost toughness when Clarence Weatherspoon left. By the end of December, the Heat were 5-23 and going nowhere.

Then a funny thing happened: the team started to win. This was in part because Rod Strickland was healthy and had adjusted to running this particular team; Anthony Carter was now safely in a backup role where he belonged. Riley dug up veteran Jim Jackson, who provided some of the scoring punch the Heat desperately needed. During the long losing streak, the Heat failed to clear 80 points nine times, including the nadir at home against Utah where the Heat scored a measley 56 points. The Heat rattled off 6 straight wins and 9 of 12, beating the Lakers, Portland, and Indiana along the way. They were still just 14-26, but the playoffs were a real possibility in the mediocre Eastern Conference.

Miami slowly continued to rise in the standings as other teams started to collapse. By the end of February, the Heat were 24-32. A win over Phoenix brought them to within 4 games of .500, an amazing feat considering the way they opened the season. Even on March 20th, after beating Philadelphia, the Heat were 31-35 and just a game or two out of a playoff spot. But the team wore down once again, losing 7 of their next 8 against legitimate playoff teams. A disgraceful 70-65 loss to Boston pretty much put the last nail in their coffin. This was not a vintage year for Miami at either end of the floor. It took until January 16th before the Heat managed to crack 100 points in a game. At the same time, their opponents beat that mark 9 times and averaged nearly 90 ppg--unthinkable for most grinding Riley teams.

Riley had problems beyond the fact that his best player will never be the same again physically and the fact that he's locked in with two players who have yet to truly earn their big paydays. The team's owner, Mickey Arison, has no interest in being a free-spending Mark Cuban type. He doesn't want his team over the NBA luxury tax. That means Riley's hands are tied with regard to pulling in a big-name player to help fix his team's scoring problems. In a sense, going to the lottery was almost a favor, because there's little chance that the Heat would receive a potentially high-quality player otherwise. Still, at the 10th spot, one never knows what one's going to get. The Heat would love to move up a few spots and nab a Jay Williams or Caron Butler, but they just don't have a lot of leverage to make a deal. It remains to be seen if 2002 was just a blip or if the Miami Heat are on track to obtain dual citizenship in Lotteryland.

II. Team Roster/Contract Status:

Player/# Years Pos Signed Notable Stats/Accomplishments Through:

Alonzo Mourning/10   C	2003 	15.7 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 2.5 bpg, 51% FG (75 games)
Vladimir Stepania/4  C   FA	4.3 ppg, 4.0 rpg (67 games)
Ernest Brown/R       C   FA 	1 ppg, 2 rpg (3 games)
Sean Marks/4	    C/F  FA	4.6 ppg, 3.6 rpg (21 games)
Chris Gatling/11    C/F 2004	6.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg (54 games)
Brian Grant/8        PF	2007	9.3 ppg, 8.0 rpg (72 games)
Malik Allen/R	     PF  FA	4.3 ppg, 3.2 rpg (12 games)
LaPhonso Ellis/10    SF 2004	7.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg (66 games)
Jim Jackson/9	     SF  FA	10.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 2.5 apg, 47% 3FG (55 games)
Kendall Gill/12     F/G  FA	5.7 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.5 apg (65 games)
Eddie Jones/8        SG 2007	18.3 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 3.2 apg, 1.4 spg, 39% 3FG
				(81 games)
Eddie House/2        SG  FA	8.0 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 1.9 apg, 34% 3FG (64 games)
Anthony Carter/3     PG 2003	4.3 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 4.7 apg, 5% 3FG (46 games)
Rod Strickland/13    PG  FA 	10.4 ppg, 6.1 apg, 3.1 rpg, 2.1 spg (76 games)

III. Draft History: 

The Heat currently have exactly one player that they drafted: Eddie House. He was a second round pick, which speaks both to the draft position the Heat have been in in recent years as well as the number of first round picks they've surrendered. Rodney Buford got some quality minutes last year with Memphis while Spider Smith caught on with San Antonio, making for a decent track record in identifying talent in the latter rounds, at least.

* = Year with no first round pick

• 2001:* #49 Ken Johnson, Ohio State
• 2000:* #37 Eddie House, Arizona State
  #52 Ernest Brown, Indian Hills CC
• 1999: #25 Tim James, Miami
  #53 Rodney Buford, Creighton
• 1998:* #51 Corey Brewer, Oklahoma
• 1997: #26 Charles "Spider" Smith, New Mexico
  #31 Mark Sanford, Washington
• 1996:* None (though they did receive the rights for #25 pick Martin Muursepp)
• 1995: #10 Kurt Thomas, TCU
  #46 George Banks, UTEP
• 1994: #12 Khalid Reeves, Arizona
  #40 Jeff Webster, Oklahoma
• 1993:* #35 Ed Stokes, Arizona
• 1992: #12 Harold Miner, Southern Cal
  #37 Isaiah Morris, Arkansas
  #42 Matt Geiger, Georgia Tech
• 1991: #5 Steve Smith, Michigan State
  #29 George Ackles, UNLV
• 1990: #9 Willie Burton, Minnesota
  #15 Dave Jamerson, Ohio
  #40 Bimbo Coles, Virginia Tech
• 1989: #4 Glen Rice, Michigan
  #28 Sherman Douglas, Syracuse
  #45 Scott Haffner, Evansville
• 1988: #9 Rony Seikaly, Syracuse
  #20 Kevin Edwards, DePaul
  #33 Grant Long, Eastern Michigan
  #35 Sylvester Gray, Memphis State
  #40 Orlando Graham, Auburn-Montgomery

IV. Positional Analysis

CENTER:

Overall: Mourning bounced back from an awful showing late in 2001, though he went through periods where his illness was obviously affecting his performance. He got sick much easier and had to miss a few games because of complications. The Heat searched for good back-ups all year, with Vlad Stepania being the best. While Mourning isn't the dominant player he once was, the Heat are still in decent shape here.

When Mourning went out with his injury, he was one of the top 5 or 10 players in the league. He had added an unstoppable scoring ability to his already-formidable defensive and rebounding prowess. The current version is up and down. Zo was capable of huge scoring outbursts, but usually wound up up in the teens. Still, an athletic center who shoots over 50%, gets 8 boards every night and blocks 2.5 shots a game while still scoring 16 ppg is rare in the NBA. Zo is still one of the 10 best centers in the game, perhaps even higher on his good nights. How much longer he intends to stick around is a good question. 2003 is the last year of his contract, and it wouldn't shock me to see the Heat trade him at some point to a team that needs a big man for a title run. I don't think it'll happen this summer, but it could happen next year if the Heat aren't winning.

Vlad Stepania is a trusty, physical big man who is also a pretty good athlete. He's a bit light at 236 pounds but did a good job on the boards in limited minutes. Sean Marks also had his moments, even starting a game. During the Heat's darkest moments, he and Stepania got a lot of minutes. He's a better scorer than Stepania but less of a post presence. Chris Gatling also played a bit in the post. Ernest Brown was brought in late in the year and just had a couple of cameo appearances.

POWER FORWARD:

Overall: This proved to be a surprisingly troublesome position for the Heat. After a very solid 2001 season, Brian Grant fell prey to injury problems and overall ineffectiveness. LaPhonso Ellis was called upon to play out of position at times here and that didn't go all that well. Chris Gatling played most of his minutes here with mixed results. None of these players are getting any younger, but this isn't the team's biggest area of need. Grant can get the job done if healthy, and a half-decent free agent acquisition could fill in Miami's need for a backup.

Brian Grant was the Heat's most dependable player in 2001 and a borderline All-Star. He regressed in nearly every aspect of his game in 2002, but especially scoring, where he didn't even crack double figures. After years of not being The Man in Portland, he blew his chance when he really had the opportunity. Injuries were part of this, but one senses that he's reached the ceiling in his potential. The Heat are stuck with him for awhile, so hopefully he'll come closer to his 2001 output next year given the offseason to fully recover. Miami needs to rebound, play defense, and score in the low post and with short jumpers.

The Heat traded potential scoring machine Ricky Davis for retread Chris Gatling, and it's looking like one of the most dubious transactions of Riley's career. Gatling was nowhere near at his physical peak and packed little of his former scoring punch.

Ellis also played a bit in the PF slot but lacked the size to make a big difference. Young Malik Allen actually got a couple of starts when the Heat were being punished by injuries and had his moments, but in a better world for Miami he's be a 12th man at best.

SMALL FORWARD:

Overall: When I was reformatting this report, I accidentally deleted the small forward section. But considering the wing play in 2002, perhaps I should have left this space intentionally blank. The Kendall Gill experiment was a complete failure, and early season stopgaps like Sam Mack and Tang Hamilton weren't fooling anyone. Amazingly, Riley took a washed-up Jim Jackson (once part of the glorious "Three J's" in Dallas) and gave him a chance to shine. I'm not going to go overboard and say that Jackson had a great season, but what he did was pretty remarkable. Miami was heading for the worst record in the league before he came along, and he did just enough to help them fight for a playoff spot. But the reality is that the Heat are in big trouble at this position.

The fact that Jim Jackson was Miami's third leading scorer speaks to both how offensively challenged the Heat were in 2002 and how Jackson was able to revive his career from the critical list. The fact is, Jackson did everything well for Miami. He was an impressive 47% from three (though he shot just 81 times from long range), showed he could rebound and pass the ball. He hit a couple of game-winning shots. Jackson was eager to disprove the rumors about him being problematic for chemistry, and he did it well. Hopefully he'll be back for another stint, though ideally he'd be a top 6th man. This is not to say that he's the long-term answer at wing, but as stop-gaps go, he's a solid one.

Unfortunately, Gill didn't work out quite as well. He was also limited by injury, but he just didn't have the same snap to his step as he did early in his career. That led to his struggling, because he's always depended on his athleticism to make an impact. He played pretty good defense but really shouldn't have been able to crack the rotation of a good team.

LaPhonso Ellis was similarly limited for Miami. He's been dealing with injuries for years and this season was no exception. Never a great shooter, he took too many threes and didn't go hard enough to the basket. He sometimes played the four, which also didn't work out very well.

SHOOTING GUARD:

Overall: Eddie Jones had a terrific year in a tough position, being forced to carry the team. He had never really had to do that before, and at times it showed. While a fine slasher, decent shooter, excellent defender and all-around solid player, the one thing he isn't is a superstar level talent. The other problem was that the Heat didn't have many players on the bench to help him out with the scoring load. One of the few was Eddie House, who has steadily improved as he's gained confidence and experience, but still has a ways to go. Kendall Gill looked mostly washed up. Jim Jackson played a bit at 2 but was out of position when he did. The Heat needs another scorer and they need it badly.

Jones was easily the Heat's MVP in 2002. He played about as well as he could, given the circumstances. Healthy all year, Jones shot respectably from three, played great defense, distributed the ball well, went to the hole hard and got lots of foul shot attempts, and kept his turnovers down. As such, he's the Heat's only real trade bait other than Mourning, but I wouldn't deal him unless it was for a top-5 pick and a veteran. All of that said, no one is mistaking Jones for a superstar. He's nowhere near the Pierce/Kobe/Carter realm of elite guards and would more appropriately be the third scoring option on a good team.

House is an up-and-comer and it looks like Riley is going to give him a real chance to develop. Having him around means that the Heat can perhaps worry about concentrating on wings or a backup point guard. House hoisted the second-greatest number of threes for the Heat but connected on just 34% of them; this will have to improve. He did keep his turnovers to just 1.9 per game, which isn't bad for a young player. The summer leagues will see him get many more chances to improve, along with little- used guard Mike James.

POINT GUARD:

Overall: Prior to the season, this was an area of real concern. Miami's plans for obtaining a top-flight point guard like Gary Payton fell through, and so they had to take a chance on the much-travelled Rod Strickland. Few have doubted his ability to play, but he's never found a regular home because of chemistry issues. Fortunately for the Heat, he fit right in for a team that needed him. Backing him up is Anthony Carter, a serviceable young player who has proved that he's not ready for prime time and a starter's role and probably never will be. That's fine if he accepts coming off the bench.

Like Jackson, Strickland was an enormously pleasant surprise for Miami. His impressive assist/turnover ratio, his defense, and his leadership were all big plusses. The Heat were awful when Carter started early in the year and only turned it around when Strickland started to take over. And as far as it is known, he wasn't a chemistry or locker room problem for a moment. Barring getting a top-flight point guard in a trade, the Heat need to lock him up for 2003. About the only thing Strickland didn't bring to the table was effective long-range shooting. His game was all about dribble penetration and going to the hole, finishing or getting fouled. The fact that Miami only really has one player (Jones) who can create his own shot was a big reason why the season went as it did. Tim Hardaway was greatly missed.

Carter really struggled as the starting point. Granted, the team had other problems as he was pushed into a situation he perhaps wasn't ready for, but the fact remains that he didn't get it done. His inability to shoot made it easy to defend him, effectively shutting down a Heat offense that already struggled to score. He's hired "shot doctor" Chip Engelland for offseason training; this could make or break his career.

V. COACH/FRONT OFFICE:

Maximum Leader Riley had the worst year of his career in every way imaginable. As GM, he wasn't able to carry out any significant offseason moves, especially in terms of bringing in free agents. While he did bring in and successfully integrate Strickland and Jackson, it was more a matter of Riles getting lucky after rolling the dice than a brilliant master plan. The fact that these two were brought in at the 11th hour hurt the team's cohesion; having them in training camp might have made a difference down the line. Riley also pulled off the boneheaded Ricky Davis for Chris Gatling trade, a move that looked extra idiotic when Davis began lighting up the league late in the year. Riley thought Davis was "immature" and didn't want to deal with him. When Davis found some new scenery, he suddenly flourished. While Riley has always distrusted young players, it's clear that he doesn't have the makeup to work with young players and allow them to make mistakes. Davis could have been a huge boost to the Heat last year but instead Miami got a washed-up veteran.

Riley the GM did not have a vintage year. Neither did Riley the coach. He was unprepared for the beginning of the season, did a good job turning things around, and then wore his team into the ground down the stretch. With the majority of his team over 30 years old, Riley needed to back off. Riley has noted that he wants his draft choice this year to be someone who at least is in the rotation, preferably someone who can start. This at least shows some inclination of changing his ways. By all indications, he has no plans of retiring anytime soon. This means that he won't necessarily try and load up for one last run next season--he plans to be here for a few more years. If that's the case, then he needs to build for the future of the franchise and start to get younger. I'm not suggesting dynamiting the team the way they did in Chicago, but by integrating new players with old. The Riley era of thug basketball is over in the NBA; Riley himself needs to adapt to the more free-flowing style of basketball that is to come.

VI. DRAFT NEEDS:

The Heat need scoring and youth, especially at wing. The Heat could really use an upgrade at virtually every position, and need depth everywhere. Miami will likely draft a forward and would love to get a top-notch small forward, since that's their area of greatest need at this point. If an excellent point guard is available, especially a dynamic scoring point, that would also be a solid option.

VII. My Selection:

Nikoloz Tskitishvili, Georgia(not the college!). This young Russian barely played in a very good Italian league last year. The comparisons to Nowitzki and Gasol have been made, though at 6-11 he's considered to be a wing. No one knows how good he really is because he just hasn't played enough yet, but his workouts have apparently been through-the-roof. He can shoot the NBA three, handle the ball, penetrate and run. The big question is how he will handle the physical nature of the pro game. He's not a forward with guard skills like Gasol--he's not ready to bang inside. There's also some question as to whom he could guard in the NBA. But Gasol & Nowitzki were able to help sooner rather than later, and if you're drafting on potential alone, I'd take him over Qyntel Woods. To be completely honest, I'd be surprised if he was available at #10 when the real draft takes place.

VIII. Others Considered:

Jared Jeffries, Indiana. Jeffries has a lot of upside because he has a lot of growing into his body to do. He's already added 20 pounds of muscle since his season ended in the national championship game. At this point, I'm not sure what his NBA position is. He's way too skinny to be a PF but doesn't have the shot to be an everyday three. The extra weight will help, but developing a consistent jumper would help more. Still, you have to love his skills, his toughness, his rebounding ability and his starpower. He could be special given the right circumstances and some room to develop.

Qyntel Woods, NE Miss CC. Woods in some respects is a good fit for Miami. He's a versatile wing who has drawn some comparisons to Tracy McGrady. He scored and rebounded in huge numbers in his one CC season. There are a number of concerns about his past, his ability to handle the NBA lifestyle and his ability & willingness to play defense. Someone who doesn't play defense doesn't play for Pat Riley. There's also the matter of his team's poor record and not playing against decent competition. No one really knows how good he is, though he has apparently worked out well. He wouldn't be my first choice but it would be tough to turn him down.

Maybiner Hilario, Brazil. A big question mark. Some have compared him to Kenyon Martin in terms of his explosiveness and power, but you never know how a foreign player will stack up. This is a very strong possibility, though power forward is not a Heat priority, unless Brian Grant gets traded. I was surprised to see him picked so high in this draft.

Dajuan Wagner, Memphis. If Wagner had somehow fallen to 10th, I'd have snapped him up in an instant. Yes, there are some questions about his ability to run a team full-time. Yes, he's very young and his game is somewhat erratic. But this is a kid who is a freakish athlete who has proven that he can score against anyone. He has a body built for the pros and would command huge minutes right away. He's also a pretty good shooter who would make the Heat better right away.

Amare Stoudemire, Cypress Creek HS. I've seen him play a few times, and he has the body of an 8-year veteran, only with no injuries. He's simply amazing to look at, along with his stunning power and leaping ability. He loves to dunk and block shots. The only problem is that this about all he can do at this point. He simply doesn't know the game very well right now. The idea of Riley dealing with this kid, while amusing, doesn't bode well for the Heat. Not a pick I'd recommend, and I'm very surprised to see him go in the top ten here.

IX. What The Heat Should Do:

I hope by now it's sunk into Riley's head that not everything he touches turns to gold. The squad he assembled at the price of depth simply wasn't capable of making a real run. Riley is still a great tactician who gets the most out of his players, but his ultra-disciplinarian tactics only work with a small handful of players. In today's NBA, there are fewer players who want to deal with his ego and suicidal practices. Even his best teams were simply worn down by the end of the year because his practices were so demanding. He simply needs to ease off a bit, especially since he's still mostly working with veterans. The group he had cobbled together by the end of the season was playing pretty well, but once again wore down in the last 10-15 games of the year. Riley needs to give his veterans more rest as the season goes on instead of treating every practice like a death march.

In terms of defense, the core group is pretty decent. Mourning at 75% is still damn good, Jones is a great perimeter defender and Grant at his best is solid inside. Riley has indicated that he's likely to resign Stepania, and he's a serviceable backup big man. I would also resign Strickland, who actually behaved himself and had a fine season. While not a scoring demon, his 3:1 assist/turnover ratio was impressive. Outside of perhaps Jeff McInnis, there aren't any free agents out there who impress me enough to pursue, so getting Strickland back would be a good decision. Likewise, resigning Jackson seems to be a sound move. He was surprisingly versatile and one of the team's best shooters. His star days are over but I'd love to see him as part of the Heat's bench.

The only other free agent I'd resign is Eddie House. He's still a long way from being a great player but he made significant strides in '02. I'd like to see the Heat continue to nurture him, perhaps with a 2 year contract. Miami needs scoring like nobody's business, and his ability to fill up the hoop gives his future a great deal of potential. As he masters other aspects of the game (like passing), he could become a top 6th man or starter. The Heat currently have right of first refusal on any offer made to him by another team, and they intend to keep him. That's nine players right there, not including the first round draft pick. If the Heat could sign one or two other quality free agents to shore up the wing, they might be able to get back to the playoffs.

The most intriguing free agent is Rodney Rogers. He did some nice work coming off the bench for the Celtics, and can play inside and out. His three point shooting would be a valuable asset. His price tag might be too high. Another potential hard-working forward choice could be Matt Harpring. While not a spectacular player, he can rebound and shoot. Two intriguing young free agents include Troy Hudson and Trenton Hassell. Hudson made a name for himself in Orlando last year and may be hard to pry away from the Magic, but he's exactly the kind of guard the Heat could use to provide more long range shooting. Hassell came on strong for the Bulls and will probably re-up with them, but he has the potential to be a big-time scorer in the league.

Lastly, there are three economy-model players that I like: Raja Bell, Michael Redd, and Voshon Lenard. Bell is the athletic young forward who played well in the '01 finals but got limited minutes this year. He's a Miami native who could add some youth to the frontcourt. Redd is a sweet-shooting guard who could also help Miami's three point percentages, though I'm not sure he's tough enough to play Riley-style defense. Lenard got his start with the Heat but never panned out for Denver after he was traded. He's another guy who could help in that department. The Heat have two free agent exceptions: the 4.6 million mid-level and a 3.36 million trade exception that they got in the Tim Hardaway deal. If Riley spends wisely, he can get two guys to help right away. I wouldn't look for him to use either on Strickland or Jackson; they can probably be signed for much less. Riley must use the 3.36 million exception by August 22nd. The 4.6 would nudge the Heat into luxury tax territory, but Arison has said that if Riley can find a difference-maker, he'd swallow the money.

X. What The Heat Will Really Do:

It's clear that Riley is thinking that he wants his team to get better right now, and wants their draft pick to be someone who can come in and contribute right away, especially on offense. Riley has indicated that it's unlikely that the Heat will move up in the draft, mostly because they don't have players with contracts that appeal to other teams. There's always a chance that Mourning could go since he only has one year left on his contract, but I think Riles wants to see what he can do. Besides, it's unlikely that they're going to get anyone better, even if Zo isn't quite the same Zo as the 2000 model. Moreover, there's a feeling that the Heat should at least give this roster another chance and avoid the instability of the last couple of years. Riley also said that it's unlikely that the Heat will draft a foreign player--he simply doesn't trust Tskitishvili's age (19) or experience, despite his intriguing potential. If he wanted Hilario, he'd trade down. Riley didn't rule out draft a high schooler, namely Amare Stoudemire. But while Stoudemire is as complete an athlete who has ever come into the league, it's clear that he has a long way to go in learning the game. I would be stunned to see the Heat pick him. The Heat are likely to try to resign Vladimir Stepania, whom Riley likens to a young Scot Pollard, but won't retain Chris Gatling. The Heat reportedly are also interested in giving last year's second round pick Ken Johnson a shot at making the team, as well as Tang Hamilton, who had a cup of coffee with the Heat last fall. Players like Malik Allen, Mike James and Ernest Brown will all play in the Heat's summer league. All 3 were on the roster last year but played minimally. Right now, Brian Grant is being shopped around but there are no big deals imminent. The Heat would want a starting-caliber guard and a draft pick in return and might pick a power player like Hilario, Melvin Ely, Marcus Haislip or Curtis Borchardt at #10. The Heat are apparently working all of them out in case this happens.

X1. Post Draft Analysis

As I mentioned in my report, the Heat desperately needed an upgrade at the wing and point guard positions, both in terms of youth and ability. Getting Butler at the bargain rate a #10 earns immediately solves a huge problem for Miami. He is the slashing, creative forward the Heat needed so badly last year, a guy who can get to the basket and isn't afraid of having the ball when the game is on the line. Butler's also a ferocious defender and rebounder, averaging 7.6 rpg for his career. Butler is not a super-prolific shooter, but he did hit 40% of his threes as a senior and also shoots 77% from the foul line. With some work, he can become a big-time threat from outside. But in his rookie year, expect to see him go to the basket and open up some space for Eddie Jones. Butler's ability to handle the ball will also give him a big edge.

The best news is that Riley is also pretty ecstatic and plans to throw him into the mix right away as a probable starter, in much the same way Worthy and Scott were tossed in back when Riley actually ran an offense that didn't make people retch. President-For-Life Riley even uttered statements like "we need to get quicker and more athletic." Pinch me, I'm dreamin'!

Butler, Jones, Mourning and Grant will make a solid starting 4 of 5. This is especially true because Grant is staying in Miami this summer to work out with Mourning in an effort to become a better frontcourt tandem. If Grant regains his form of two years ago, the Heat suddenly look like they have a decent frontcourt. Miami is still trying to resign Rod Strickland and Jim Jackson, but those two said they would take their time.

What Riley needs to do first is take care of the point guard situation. Strickland would be OK, but a Jeff McInnis might be better if he's interested. After that, the Heat need to start building a capable bench. Signing Jackson would give the Heat an experienced sixth man. Getting another shooter to help Eddie Jones and Eddie House would complete the backcourt. The other big free agent priority at this point is getting another power forward/center to back up Mourning and Grant. Hint: Chris Gatling is not the answer. Neither is Ken Johnson, but he could make a good practice/spot player.

With a decent point guard, a solid backup power player, and a couple of judicious wing additions, the Heat could easily return to the playoffs in 2003. The Heat also drafted Rasaul Butler at #53, a high-scoring wing. I'm not sure if he has a chance to make the team, but he'll get every chance. Especially if free agent signings don't go the Heat's way. The last item on the list is for Riley to open up the offense a little, but perhaps that's asking for too much....