I. Personnel and Changes

For years with the Jazz it has been the case of the more things change, the more they stay the same. This year could finally see the shakeup of the team. But as long as Stockton and Malone are here, and it looks like they will be for one more year, the new will have to take a back seat to the familiar. Here's an idea, why don't they retire the oxymoronic team name "Utah Jazz" when the duo finally walks away and give it back to N'Orleans and become "Utah Saints"? Or become the Grizzlies and have Memphis become the "Blues"? I digress, but anyway, it will be the end of an era.

II. Previous Season Recap

As Jazz owner Larry Miller said at the end of the season, the Jazz "left a lot on the table." The team seemed to lack the confidence and cohesion to win close games or put other teams away, and while there were predictable growing pains that came with incorporating new players into the roster (most notably Andrei Kirilenko), several players underachieved. The only player who was as solid as a rock from start to finish was 40-year-old point guard John Stockton, who averaged 13 points (on 52% FG shooting), 8 assists, and 2 steals a game in only 31 minutes.

Karl Malone never really got into a groove after missing the preseason, and had a tough time adjusting to the league's new zone defenses, which tempted him into spending even more time on the perimeter and less on the low blocks. Still he averaged 22 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 2 steals per game. But his field goal percentage dropped to 45% from a career average of 52% and 50% the previous year. Nonetheless, like the postal service the Mailman wants to raise his rates. For now, Larry Miller ain't buying it. Sometimes Karl plays better when he's mad. We'll see.

Donyell Marshall and Bryon Russell battled injuries all year and neither was really productive. Veterans John Starks and John Amaechi were complete busts. Greg Ostertag was as frustratingly inconsistent as ever. Rookie second rounder Jarron Collins overachieved. Scott Padgett finally found a place in the rotation. DeShawn Stevenson and Quincy Lewis showed flashes, but struggled with their confidence. John Crotty and Rusty LaRue made the two-headed backup point guard monster. More detailed analysis follows in the Positional Analysis. Overall the Jazz never got the divergent pieces to fit together, finishing with a disappointing 44-38 record, their worst in 15 years, and making the Kings sweat (a little) before being eliminated by them in the first round of the Western Conference Playoffs. Oh, to be in the East ...

III. Roster/Positional Analysis

Point Guard -" Don't it always seem to go that you don't know what you've got 'til it's gone?" said Joni Mitchell. Jazz fans have truly been spoiled over the past 18 years by the privilege of watching John Stockton play. It looks like he's going to come back for one more year, but please don't bother him with the farewell tributes and golf clubs.

Raul Lopez of Spain is speculated to be close to negotiating a buyout with his team so he can join the Jazz for a year of Little John's tutelage. The Jazz liked him better than Tony Parker last year, and generally they scout pretty well, so hopes are high. His game is said to be more like that of Steve Nash than Stockton's, so we shall see. One downer: he is coming off of ACL surgery. In a few games back with Real Madrid of Spain, he averaged 11 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists and shot over 50%.

Believe it or not, John Crotty was playing some of the best basketball of his career (7 points and 3.5 assists in limited minutes; 45% on 3-pointers) before he, too, was felled by knee problems. Sloan likes him, so he may be stashed on the injury list to be a practice player, or a 2nd tutor for Lopez. From the U. of Virginia, he's a smart guy.

Rusty LaRue is more athletic than you might realize, being a three-sport athlete at Wake Forest and all. Unfortunately, he does not have the tools to play point guard for a contending team, and will probably not be brought back. Good luck, Rusty!

Shooting Guard - Since the departure of trick-shot artist Jeff Hornacek, this position has been a real weakness for the Jazz. Bryon Russell is not a 2-guard, and it showed. Playing out of position (and returning from injury), he shot a career-low 38% from the field and failed to average in double figures for the first time in four years. While he can defend 2-guards (with the exception of MJ), he lacks the handles and passing ability to get it done on the offensive end. Perhaps he would be better off on a team needing a defensive spark or a veteran in the locker room (he is entering his ninth year).

Quincy Lewis has the opposite problem: he can play two-guard offensively but has trouble with 2s on the defensive end, getting into foul trouble. I hope the Jazz don't give up on him because he has a sweet stroke. People forget that he led the nation in scoring while at the University of Minnesota. The Jazz used a #19 on him, the same as they have this year. If he can stay confident and out of the doghouse, look out.

Speaking of Jerry Sloan's doghouse, John Starks was sadly only a shadow of his former self after joining the Jazz. He only shot 37% from the field, mostly on ill-advised shots, in limited minutes. He will definitely not be brought back.

DeShawn Stevenson is a great athlete drafted straight out of high school who has struggled with his shot after the Jazz coaches had him change his mechanics. He is actually capable of handling the point if the Jazz ever decided to get a small scoring 1. If he can stay out of trouble, he could be a big part of the Jazz's future. If he can't stay away from the jailbait, he could be trade bait, but this could be his breakout year.

Small Forward - This is one position at which the Jazz is truly loaded. Donyell Marshall is too fragile to play the four, as his injuries last year indicate. But he is perfect to play the three, as he can use his long arms to post-up crash the boards, and harass the opponent on defense. He averaged 15 points and 8 rebounds (and tore up the Kings in the playoffs). If he could play full time, he should be able to average a double double.

The most exciting Jazz player to watch, bar none, was rookie Andrei Kirilenko, who almost single-handedly dispelled the myth that European players are "soft." His enthusiasm and toughness were infectious; he was a wonder to watch on the boards or in transition, in what was easily the most exciting rookie performance since Karl Malone's (in 1985-86). AK-47 made first-team all-rookie team, averaging 11 points and 5 rebounds and being a terror on defense in only 26 minutes per game. If he can bulk up a little and develop a consistent perimeter shot, he could be an all-star. The enduring image of the playoffs is 'Drei running down Hedo Turkoglu on the break and jumping, turning, and shoving his shot attempt back at him with his south paw.

Last year it seemed like Scott Padgett was a goner. But to his credit, he retooled his body so he could be a 3 instead of a 4 and finally cracked the Jazz's rotation. He's an excellent shooter, and usually makes good decisions (I'm still trying to figure out why he interfered with Stockton's last-second 3 attempt in game 1 vs. Sacto). Despite bad blood between his agent Dan Fegan (who also represented Shandon Anderson and Howard Eisley) and the Jazz, Padgett has said that he likes Utah and hopes to return.

Power Forward - For years Karl Malone was the power forward. While his skills have declined, he is still one of the best in the business. One thing that hasn't lessened is his ability to raise a stink every summer, as he and Larry Miller are firing salvos back and forth again. Let me dispel some rumors: Karl will not be going to New Jersey. He has feuded in the past with Byron Scott, Kenyon Martin, and Rod Thorn. Karl will not be going to Dallas, at least not this year, as the Mavs couldn't match his salary without gutting their roster. Karl will not be going anywhere he doesn't want to go, as he holds a no-trade clause. So stay tuned for Stockton-to-Malone XVII. Here's hoping that Miller doesn't offer him an extension. I'd like if being in a contract year brought back the vintage Mailman, you know, the banger in the low post, swinging elbows.

Jarron Collins impressed the coaches with his work ethic, and made the team despite being a second round pick. Face it, he's not a center, even though he started there much of the year, but he should be a good backup power forward for a long time.

Center - The good news is that Greg Ostertag switched back to his original number of 00. The bad news is he played like a double zero most of the time. About five years ago he played a decent series against Shaq (remember the days when the Jazz actually had the Lakers' number?) and Scott Layden decided to reward him with a long-term contract almost as big as he is. The following year Shaq bitchslapped him to the ground and he hasn't been the same since. Greg's a nice guy, perhaps too nice. He's giving a kidney to his sister this summer. He should still be able to play, but if he reports as Osterfat as he has in the past, look for another season in Sloan's doghouse.

Speaking of reporting to camp overweight, John Amaechi was very disappointing in his first year in Utah. He may be able to brew a cup of tea, but last year he played like a soggy biscuit. I've only listed him as a center to emphasize how weak the position is for the Jazz. I wouldn't be surprised if the Jazz eats his contract (pun). Or perhaps a slow, clumsy oaf with poor hands could be shipped back to the Eastern Conference.

IV. Coaching/Management

Jerry Sloan is really underrated as a coach. One thing that has always rubbed off on his players is his businesslike, no-nonsense approach. And the Jazz has a reputation for being one of the best-executing teams in the league. However, at times he has lacked patience with younger players, and I would be shocked if he stuck around after Stockton and/or Malone leaves. The only thing that Sloan wants to rebuild is his barn or tractor engine on his farm in Southern Illinois. Assistant Phil Johnson is a former head coach who would make an excellent replacement during the rebuilding years.

Allow me to go on a rant about the Laydens. Formerly-fat Frank Layden had the gall to retire a jersey with his name on it and the number one, yet he won't retire the jersey of one of the three greatest players in Utah Jazz history, Adrian Dantley, because of some bad blood between them. Plus he won't go away. Despite working as a "consultant" for the Knicks, he still is all over the local television and radio. Enough already! Scott Layden is a conservative loser who hides things from the press. What a perfect fit New York is for him ... NOT! All I can say is a Jazz fan is good riddance and thank you for never making any moves during all those years when the Jazz were only one player away. You deserve your fate, and new GM Kevin O'Connor is a huge improvement over you, loser. Sorry about that; I feel better now.

Owner Larry Miller cries in public, and often makes decisions from his (ample) gut, but he was largely responsible for keeping the Jazz in Utah, and I respect that. Never should have allowed them to tear down the Acord Arena at the Salt Palace, though.

V. Recent Drafts

VI. Team Needs

The team needs a shooter, and size inside, and time for the young players to develop. Looking at the last three drafts, the Jazz have acquired six players who may have staying power, and one who may be a star (Kirilenko). If they can do the same over the next three years, they could be competitive again, or at least never sink to the level of groveling for krumbs or fortune cookies like their former nemeses the Bulls (Ha!) and Rockets. A year of going in the tank (perhaps 2003-2004?) and getting their first-ever high lottery pick would be nice, too.

VII. My Selection

Melvin Ely, PF, 6'9", Fresno State

I was delighted that Melvin Ely slipped down to me at #19. Ever since Antoine "the Original Big Dog" departed, the Jazz have lacked a dude with 'tude. Ely is the most-polished post player in the draft, and his 23 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 blocks don't lie even if it was in the WAC. I am very intrigued by his 7'4" wingspan being added to a roster featuring the long-limbed Marshall and Kirilenko. There have been questions about his motor, but who better to mentor him the Karl Malone, the workout king?

VIII. Others Considered

I'd thought that Marcus He'll Slip would be available instead of Ely, with not-quite-as-long arms, but greater leaping ability.

Carlos Boozer was very tempting, as I believe he will be a solid pro. Ely's only advantage over him is shot-blocking ability. The thought of him sliding as far as the Lakers to replace those jokes Madsen and Walker makes me sick. Also the thought of a "Boozer" jersey in Utah is amusing, but he can't have #4; we're saving that one for the aforementioned Adrian Dantley.

Everybody and their dog thinks that the Jazz should take Dan Dickau because, like Stockton, he is a short sharpshooting white dude who went to Gonzaga. But then again, so was Bing Crosby. THE JAZZ WILL NOT TAKE DAN DICKAU! Of course he wasn't available in this mock, but expecting Dickau to replace Stockton would be like expecting Harold Miner to replace MJ (fairly old-school reference). If I were to take a point guard, I'd favor Frank Williams (for his toughness) anyway.

Speaking of sharpshooting white dudes, there was a rumor that the Jazz had made a promise to draft Casey Jacobsen. I'm not buying it, and neither should you.

There are numerous Euro players that I had to consider if available: Jiri Welsch, Bostjan Nachbar (although the Jazz don't need a 3), Zaur Pachulia, Nenad Kristic; someone sent me an e-mail from France stating that they would take Boris Diaw, so you never know. In last year's team report, as an afterthought, I said "Perhaps they'll take the point guard from Spain" without mentioning Raul Lopez by name. So you never know. I doubt they'll take a Euro this year as they could use help immediately.

IX. Other Moves to Consider

I would love to see the Jazz work out a sign and trade with B-Russ as the principal for a free agent who can fill it up: Eric Piatkowski, Travis Best, and former Jazzman Troy Hudson come to mind. If for some reason they don't resign Lewis and Padgett, a shooter who could be had on the cheap and would fit their system is Trajan Langdon. It would be cool if they acquired him and drafted Boozer. They would corner the Alaskan market. It would also be funny if someone would take Osterfat or Meech off of their hands (with a forklift) or if a former Jazz exile (e.g. Howard Eisley, Shandon Anderson, Jacque Vaughn, or even Dell Curry [now that's old school!]) came home to roost. They have to keep Stockton, Malone, and Marshall for one more year. If Stockton retires, Malone or Marshall sulks or demands a trade, hell will break loose.