I. Personnel Changes

Key Losses:

• Arvydas Sabonis: (Age as of June 19, 2002: 37)
• Steve Smith: (32)
• Greg Anthony: (34)
• Stacey Augmon: (33)
• Tim Grgurich [Assistant Coach]

Key Gains:

• Derek Anderson: (27)
• Ruben Patterson: (26)
• Zach Randolph: (20)
• Ruben Boumtje-Boumtje: (24)
• Steve Kerr: (36)
• Mo Cheeks [Head Coach]

Record: 49-33, 3rd in Pacific, 6th in Western Conference

II. Season Overview

Slow Start (15-19)

The Blazers' season got off to an inauspicious start in a 98-87 opening night loss at the Lakers. Ruben Patterson, the FA acquisition from Seattle, was serving a league-imposed suspension and Derek Anderson, acquired in a sign-and-trade deal with San Antonio that cost Portland Steve Smith, sprained his ankle midway through the third and didn't return.

In fact, Anderson didn't return until over a week later, and Portland sputtered out of the gate. National media were calling Portland a "horrible" team and were questioning whether Portland's remarkable streak of playoff entries was going to be extended.

Things started looking up, though, shortly after the New Year when Portland beat Philly at home and pounded the Cavs by 26 in Cleveland.

Excellent Middle (26-6)

For the middle portion of the season, Portland looked like the team all Portland fans hope with baited breath that they can be: a deep, talented team that can, alternatively, outrun or outgrind opponents. Portland won at an impressive 81% for this stretch of games, crowned by a 26 point home win over Dallas on March 14 where Portland led by 46 at one point, 41 after three and had one of the best 2 minute stretches of basketball that I have ever seen in the second quarter (4 or 5 breakaway dunks in a row; it lived on my TiVo for the rest of the season).

This great victory was followed up by 2 more wins (over Washington and at Boston), but after that things started to get ugly again.

Slow Finish & Another Sweep (8-8 & 0-3)

Before their game against Memphis at home on March 25, Portland was living right: they were 16-2 in their last 18 games, the hottest team in the NBA. After 3 quarters, Portland led by 19 in spite of Rasheed Wallace sitting out. At the end of the fourth quarter, however (one that saw Portland commit 3 offensive fouls and a T by Bonzi), Portland took a 3 point loss and somehow saw their season come unraveled.

Including that game and the playoff sweep to LA, Portland finished 6-10. Damon Stoudamire was confronted with felony drug possession charges. The Lakers won a third title in a row. Not a good set of events since that fourth quarter started.

III. Draft History

• 1993: James Robinson (21) Alabama (Traded in JR Rider deal)
• 1993: Kevin Thompson (48) NC State (Waived)
• 1994: Aaron McKie (17) Temple (Traded in Stacey Augmon deal)
• 1994: Shawnelle Scott (43) St. John's (Waived)
• 1995: Shawn Respert (8) Michigan State (Traded for Gary Trant)
• 1996: Jermaine O'Neal (17) Eau Claire HS (S.C.) (Traded for Dale Davis)
• 1996: Marcus Brown (46) Murray State (Waived)
• 1997: Chris Anstey (18) SE Melbourne (Australia) (Traded for Kelvin Cato)
• 1997: Alvin Williams (48) Villanova (Traded in Stoudamire deal)
• 1998: No selection (Traded in Stoudamire deal)
• 1999: No selection (Traded for Bonzi Wells)
• 2000: Erick Barkley (28) St. John's (Still on Blazers)
• 2001: Zach Randolph (18) Michigan State (Still on Blazers)
• 2001: Ruben Boumtje Boumtje (44)Georgetown (Still on Blazers)

IV. Management and Coaching

Paul Allen

Paul Allen is, in my mind, the best owner in team sports. He's a long-time Blazers fan, he spends money like water, he isn't serving ice cream for Dairy Queen, and he's brought a consistent winner to Portland... one that is on the verge of winning it all every 5 years or so. Oh, yeah: he built an excellent arena for Portland, too. But, he doesn't call the Rose City home, and that opens him up to blame whenever the team fails to make much of an impact in the playoffs (i.e., whenever they play the Lakers in the first round) and/or when players get into legal and/or PR problems (which, unfortunately, happens more often than anyone would prefer).

Allen should keep doing what he's doing: try his hardest to bring championships to Portland. If he isolates some fans in Portland: big deal. They'll be back, or they'll be missing out on all the fun.

Bob Whitsitt

"Trader Bob" has been presented as THE decision-maker in Blazer basketball for the better part of a decade. As recent Portland draft history shows, he's not afraid to move talent to get talent, and as Allen's checkbook remains open to him, he's not afraid to continue to spend money on talent (Patterson as a FA and Derek Anderson to a long-term deal in the Steve Smith deal last year).

He's made some great moves, but he's made some that make many scratch their heads; that's the nature of the business. The Jermaine O'Neal-for-Dale Davis deal looks like a horrible one for Portland at this point, and it's not likely to get better. The Brian Grant-for-Shawn Kemp one, though, has a strong possibility of turning around - either Kemp could bounce back on the floor and be a force, or Miami (or some team) will be spending cap space on Grant long after Kemp's contract expires.

These questionable decisions are just the tip of the Public Relations iceberg for Whitsitt, though. For he, too, has committed the horrible sin of living in Seattle.

Much like Allen, Whitsitt should continue on, trying to build a team that can beat the Lakers in the playoffs.

Maurice Cheeks

Under the best of circumstances, it's tough to tell how much impact a coach has... obviously Larry Brown and Phil Jackson are very good and effective coaches, but are they great? Is Gregg Popovich great, or is he even good? There are so many variables that while going by wins and losses is simplistic, it's probably the best gauge of a coach.

By this standard, Cheeks is a pretty good coach. Of course, by this standard Mike Dunleavy, PJ Carlisimo and Rick Adelman were pretty good coaches when they were relieved of Portland coaching responsibilities. A difference, in my mind, is that both Dunleavy and PJ had pretty established track records, in the NBA and/or college, and no improvement was really foreseeable (Adelman is a different story, and it's not surprising to me that he's gone on to success in Sacramento)... with Cheeks, he admitted (almost too often) that he has a lot to learn, and was learning with every game. He learned in Summer League, he learned in close losses, he learned in blowouts, and he learned in the locker room. How much this learning will translate into wins next season is debatable, but for once in a decade it's easy to be upbeat about Portland's coaching situation. For every Portland fan. Because (drum roll, please) he lives in Portland!

Assistant Coaches

• Jim Lynam (College - St. Joseph's (PA) '63) :
• Neal Meyer (College - San Diego '94)
• Dan Panaggio (College - SUNY Brockport '74)
• Herb Brown (College - Vermont '57)

V. Players

Roster

 

NUM	PLAYER	POS	HT	WT	DOB	FROM	YRS
1	Derek Anderson	G	6-5	195	7/18/74	Kentucky '97	4
12	Erick Barkley	G	6-1	177	2/21/78	St. John's '02	1
44	Ruben Boumtje-Boumtje	C	7-0	245	5/20/78	Georgetown '01	R
9	Rick Brunson	G	6-4	190	6/14/72	Temple '94	4
23	Mitchell Butler	G	6-5	216	12/15/70	UCLA '93	6
34	Dale Davis	C-F	6-11	252	3/25/69	Clemson '91	10
14	Chris Dudley	C	6-11	260	2/22/65	Yale '87	14
40	Shawn Kemp	F	6-10	280	11/26/69	Concord HS (IN)	12
25	Steve Kerr	G	6-3	180	9/27/65	Arizona '88	13
21	Ruben Patterson	F-G	6-5	224	7/31/75	Cincinnati '98	3
33	Scottie Pippen	F-G	6-7	228	9/25/65	Central Arkansas '87	14
50	Zach Randolph	F	6-9	270	7/16/81	Michigan State '04	R
3	Damon Stoudamire	G	5-10	171	9/03/73	Arizona '95	6
30	Rasheed Wallace	F-C	6-11	225	9/17/74	North Carolina '97	6
6	Bonzi Wells	G-F	6-5	213	9/20/76	Ball State '98	3

Contract Status

PLAYER	Salary (2001-02)	Years Left
Derek Anderson	6,495,000	5
Erick Barkley	638,000	2
Ruben Boumtje-Boumtje	332,817	RFA
Rick Brunson	590,850	FA
Mitchell Butler	715,850	FA
Dale Davis	7,010,000	3
Chris Dudley	1,000,000	FA
Shawn Kemp	12,660,000	2
Steve Kerr	2,406,250	1
Ruben Patterson	4,538,000	4
Scottie Pippen	18,083,564	1
Zach Randolph	1,019,280	3
Damon Stoudamire	12,375,000	3
Rasheed Wallace	14,400,000	2
Bonzi Wells	2,028,239	RFA

VI. Positional Analysis:

Centers

Dale Davis: A great center? No. As good as Jermaine O'Neal, for whom he was trade 2 summers ago? No. But a serviceable player, that's capable of outplaying 80% of starting centers? Absolutely. He does the dirty work (including, unfortunately, some dirty/cheap plays) that the Blazers need from their 5: rebounding, interior defense and shotblocking.

Shawn Kemp: People regard the Kemp/Brian Grant deal as a horrible one for Portland. While it wasn't a great move at this point, I don't think it's been terrible, either. Kemp's contract length is shorter than BGrant's, and when Kemp's on the floor he actually fits in better than Grant would. Brian was great in the strike-shortened season, but that saw Rasheed at the 3 and when Wallace wanted/had to move to the 4, Grant didn't fit in... Kemp has the size to play minutes at the 5 spot, he's a good perimeter shooter and he's great at getting to the foul line. If he were only able to get a portion (or, rather, a larger portion) of his previous jumping ability back, Kemp might be worth more than a 10th of what's due to him in the next few years of his contract.

Ruben Boumtje- Boumtje: Second round picks rarely stick around on their original team long, and even fewer make much of an impact. RBB looks like he's going to be one of the few that makes a difference. He's a very bright guy (in the chess club at Gtown), and while he's a bit skinny he's a 7 footer with athleticism and a good attitude. There were a couple of points last season where he'd really impressed Mo Cheeks with his play, and in a couple of years he should log a decent number of minutes at the 5 spot... hopefully in Portland.

Chris Dudley: He was better than Will Perdue, but he wasn't as good as he was the first time he was in Portland. And that's not saying much. I doubt he'll be back, and if he's back he won't play much.

Forwards

Rasheed Wallace: Wallace is the best player on the Blazers. He's shown flexibility in his time with Portland, playing the 3 in the aforementioned strike season, 4 most of the time, and a bit of 5 this year when it was really needed. He had an off shooting year all season last year, but I expect him to bounce back in a big way this season. There have been some rumblings for a couple years that Wallace is going to be moved, but I think that Whitsitt knows 'Sheed is the closest thing to a franchise player they have, and with a bit more maturity he can continue to improve and put his stamp on the franchise.

Scottie Pippen: He's taken some heat since leaving Chicago, but the dude played hard this year. He played the point and played great defense for most of the year. By playoff time, he was exhausted, and in order to keep the Blazers at their best they need a PG that's capable of giving Pippen a break from the heavy duties at both ends. He's on his last legs, but if he's able to duplicate last year's efforts the Blazers and I will be happy.

Ruben Patterson: Personal issues aside, the guy is great on the floor. He hustles, he finishes, he defends. He needs to continue to work on his ball handling and have the confidence to let others get him the ball in a position to score, so he can cut down on his turnovers. At 26, he was the sixth youngest Blazer (behind ZR, RBB, Erick and Bonzi), so while it's easy to think of him as a grizzled veteran (this being his third team and all), he's got a lot of growth to do as a player, and I am excited Portland locked him into a long-term deal.

Zach Randolph: He was a prep monster. He showed flashes at Michigan State. Amidst rumors of a weight problem and personal/juvenile issues he dropped to Portland's pick in last year's draft. He dominated the two summer leagues he played in with Portland. And he rode the bench all season. Assuming he's in Portland next year, he can expect more of the same. He's a good scorer, with soft hands around the basket and a great assortment of moves (he reminds me a bit of a left handed Adrian Dantley). But he's a bit short and doesn't demonstrate the type of athleticism that most great players have. I'm hopeful that he'll just keep dominating whenever he gets the chance, but we'll have to wait and see.

Mitchell Butler: He pops up with the Blazers every few years... he originally came over with Rasheed in the Rod Strickland trade... he always looks good enough that I wonder why he hasn't stuck anywhere else. He's athletic and a smart player. I doubt there'll be room for him next year in Portland, though.

Guards

Bonzi Wells: The Blazers' second-best player. Plain and simple. After Portland stole him from Detroit (for a future number one pick) before he even got a chance to play as a Piston, Bonzi didn't get a chance to do much as a rookie... well, he got to dance, in his street clothes, with Rider and Jackson at mid-court after they knocked out the Jazz, but that's not what most fans have in mind from a lottery pick in his rookie season. He played more in his second season, and took the starting 2 job away from Steve Smith before blowing out his knee late last year. This season brought Derek Anderson and the pressure of being a starter. Wells took his game to the perimeter, with mixed results, this past year. He shot much better that anticipated, particularly early in the season, but never was able to establish the low-post game that was his trademark earlier in his career. Hopefully he can blend the two facets of his game in 02-03. There have been some rumors of a sign-and-trade that will move Bonzi, but I expect that unless it's part of a big deal, he's not going anywhere.

Derek Anderson: I don't think he planned on hurting his ankle in the first game and then riding the pines for so much of the rest of the year. He showed flashes in the playoffs, and he provides depth at the 2 spot, but I don't know how DA and Wells are going to coexist in the long run. DA's presence, in fact, is the main reason I think that there's ANY chance that Wells could be moved.

Damon Stoudamire: He can look great in stretches, and when he's hitting hit shots he IS effective. Unfortunately, this has not been the norm in his career, either with Portland or generally. With Pippen running the offense, Damon was given a huge chance to show that he deserves to be running off of screens and have shots his way. For whatever reason, he showed that he's not capable of that role. If Portland is going to keep Damon as a key cog (which might be necessary, considering his contract), he will either need to step into the playmaking role that he has chafed under in the past or Portland will have to pursue another player capable of handling the load as the point when Pippen's no longer capable. Portland fans WANT to love Damon... there's so much to like in terms of work ethic and his public persona. The current version of Stoudamire just doesn't fit.

Erick Barkley: His first year was much like Wells's... except the dancing at half-court part (Rider and Jackson were gone, after all!). He got a chance to play when Damon was on the DL with a bruised ego, but he only managed to secure more playing time for Rick Brunson the rest of the year. I don't know if Barkley's in the Blazers' plans, but unfortunately I don't know if he'd have any value anywhere else, either, so moving him might not be an option.

Steve Kerr: A fan favorite (what? a white guy is a fan favorite? what a shocker!) who got WAY, WAY too many minutes this season because of injuries and poor depth at the point guard spot. He is a great shooter and a good overall offensive player, but he's a total nonentity on the boards and a huge liability defensively (while steals are not the sole indicator of defensive presence, his 13 in 775 minutes shows you how poorly he plays the passing lanes and creates easy opportunities on turnovers). He fills a nice niche off the bench, in terms of leadership, Public Relations and perimeter shooting, but if he plays another 775 minutes this upcoming season, the Blazers are going to be in trouble.

Rick Brunson: The closest thing to a pure PG on the roster, he earned a lot of minutes. He appeared in 59 games in 2001-02, after appearing in 59 games the previous three years combined. Ouch.

VII. Team Needs/Potential Offseason Moves

Someone to stop Shaq: some might say this is impossible. I won't go that far, but I will say that this player is not available in the draft. Dikembe Mutombo has been a rumor for Portland for some time now, but each year that passes makes Mutombo a bit less appealing. While I still think that he can contribute in the areas that the Blazers currently rely upon their center (rebounding, interior defense, shot-blocking), and might be superior to Dale Davis in these areas, giving up two starters (as the rumored Davis + Wells would require) seems a bit excessive.

A PG that can make shots or will pass the basketball: as I outlined above, Damon's game is a problem. If Barkley emerges: great. If a veteran (Penny? McInnis?) or a rookie can step in: great. If Damon can improve his game and his attitude: even better.

More youth: Portland added Zach Randolph next year, and is a good piece to have either as trade bait or a long-term piece of the puzzle. With the key components in place (for better or worse) Portland will probably look to add a younger free agent via the mid-level exception much like they did last year with Patterson (Larry Hughes or Jeff McInnis are possibilities).

VIII. My Selection:

Frank Williams, PG, 6'3", Illinois

A point guard with pretty good size that will think pass first. That sounds like a good idea. Williams reportedly had a rough junior season; last year he wouldn't have slipped to this spot. Portland does have Erick Barkley, but considering he was stuck behind Rick Brunson for most of last season, I don't think Cheeks thinks very highly of him. Williams has been criticized for his leadership, but most of what I've read is positive in this regard: he was extremely successful in high school, winning 4 Illinois state titles, and he's interested in getting his teammates involved, even if it adversely affects his stats. Considering the weapons Portland has, that's all they need out of their PG.

IX. Other Players Considered

(italics denotes player previously taken in UseNet draft, but perhaps available in actual draft)

Kareem Rush: does Portland need a 2 guard, with Wells almost certainly coming back and DA signed to a long-term deal? Well, no. But Rush is too good to pass up. In the worst case, Rush would ride the pines like Wells did behind Rider and Jimmy Jackson at the beginning of his career.

Bostjan Nachbar: sounds like he'd be a good pickup. Good size, good skills. But sounds like he's going to be gone.

Jiri Welsch: a big point guard that likes to play defense. Welsch would seem to be a great fit, but he might not slip to Portland in the real draft, either.

Melvin Ely: if he slipped, Portland would think hard about him in spite of being deeper at the 4 spot than any other position; the guy's a legit 4 with a 7'4" wingspan.

Dan Dickau: a local boy that can really shoot from the 1 spot. Sounds good, right? Well, he's small and doesn't play defense. Doesn't sound so good all of a sudden. I'd prefer Frank Williams and maybe even Juan Dixon over Dan.

Chris Jefferies: good size, good athleticism, coming off a knee injury. And he plays defense. If Portland didn't already have Pippen, with Patterson as a long-term player at the 3, this would sound like their kind of player.

Rod Grizzard: good size, good athleticism, coming off a knee injury. Doesn't sound like he has any sort of perimeter game, though, and he's reportedly not the defender that Jefferies is. He still could be a guy that Portland would bit on, though.

Tayshaun Prince: Is he a 3 or a 4? I don't think anyone's convinced that he can play at the NBA level, but he does so many things well (shoot, pass, handle the ball) that if he only could gain some body strength/weight I think that he could make an impact. Portland can always use more perimeter shooting, so he'd have to be considered here.

Roger Mason: If he can play the point for stretches in the NBA, he could be worth having around. Sounds like he's at least a year early, though Portland could afford to stash him if they really liked him.

Jamal Sampson: A young guy with a lot of upside. Could be a Jermaine O'Neal-type investment for Portland.

John Salmons: Good size from the 1 spot. Would love to see him slip to Portland in the second round.

David Andersen: I haven't seen him play, but in spite of his ~7 feet, he sounds more like a 4 than a 5... and Portland isn't going to take a 4 unless they're blown away by him.

Smush Parker/Tito Maddox: More big PGs... see a pattern? At least a year away from contributing, but Portland could wait. One of these guys might slip to one of Portland's second round picks.

Jason Jennings: a 7'7" wingspan and good work ethic sound like a good idea. But he's not used to playing a high level of competition and I wonder if he has the athleticism to do much.

Likely Blazers Selection

This is so tough to say. If Williams slips to Portland, I hope they take him. If Rush slips to them but Frank doesn't, I hope they take Rush. Otherwise, Portland should just take the best available player and let them earn their money in practice this year.

There are any number of rumors surrounding Portland trading up, and I would love to see it happen, depending on the cost, of course. I think there are 18 or so really exciting prospects in the draft, and if Portland could move up to get Amare Stoudemire without giving up Wells (or, obviously, Wallace) I'd be all for it.