I. Introduction
A couple of years ago, I was the GM for the New Jersey Nets. I noted at the time that their new ownership (YankeesNets) had done the best thing they could do to help their fortunes: hire a top-notch executive to run the show. (I also said it would take some time for them to get good unless someone gave them a good deal on a great player...)
The Grizzlies, floundering under mediocre leadership during its brief existence, finally did the right thing and hired
Jerry West to run their basketball operations. As a bonus in the deal, they also got perhaps the shrewdest evaluator of basketball talent in the world on their payroll as well.
Yes, friends, Jerry West is that good.
West also enjoys an excellent reputation amongst players and agents in the league. This will certainly help the Grizzlies in the free agent market for years to come.
Will the Grizzlies find themselves in the NBA finals in two years? Probably not. However, West's ability to find good players and entice elite free agents to play in Memphis means that the next few years could be very good ones for Grizzlies fans.
The Grizzlies have talent at almost every position. The question is can the team extract the most out of each player? This, and finding more quality players via the draft and free agent market, are Jerry West's first tasks.
II. Current Team Roster/Status
NUM PLAYER POS HT WT DOB FROM YRS
25 Nick Anderson* F-G 6-6 228 1/20/68 Illinois '90 12
31 Shane Battier G-F 6-8 220 9/09/78 Duke '01 R
32 Rodney Buford F-G 6-5 189 11/02/77 Creighton '99 2
8 Michael Dickerson* G 6-5 190 6/25/75 Arizona '98 3
6 Antonis Fotsis* F 6-10 219 4/01/81 Greece R
16 Pau Gasol F 7-0 227 7/06/80 Spain R
7 Eddie Gill G 6-0 190 8/16/78 Weber State '00 1
22 Brevin Knight G 5-10 170 11/08/75 Stanford '97 4
43 Grant Long F 6-9 250 3/12/66 Eastern Michigan '88 13
44 Tony Massenburg C-F 6-9 250 7/13/67 Maryland '90 9
1 Willie Solomon G 6-1 185 7/20/78 Clemson '01 R
4 Stromile Swift C-F 6-9 225 11/21/79 Louisiana State '02 1
2 Jason Williams G 6-1 190 11/18/75 Florida '98 3
42 Lorenzen Wright C 6-11 240 11/04/75 Memphis '98 5
IR: Michael Dickerson (11/9 stress fracture near groin)
Nick Anderson (2/13 sprained left wrist)
Antonis Fotsis (3/3 right knee tendinitis)
2001-02 Grizzlies Regular Season Statistics
Memphis Grizzlies
Player G MIN FG FGA FT FTA 3P 3PA TRB AST STL BLK TO
Gasol, P 82 3007 551 1064 338 477 1 5 730 223 41 169 224
Williams, J 65 2236 376 985 80 101 127 430 195 519 111 7 214
Battier, S 78 3097 412 961 198 283 103 276 418 216 121 81 155
Wright, L 43 1252 223 486 70 123 0 2 405 44 30 23 72
Swift, S 68 1804 293 611 217 305 0 3 430 50 53 113 122
Dickerson, M 4 124 15 48 5 6 8 21 12 9 3 1 8
Buford, R 63 1769 258 593 58 80 17 70 272 71 42 12 63
Knight, B 53 1151 141 334 87 115 2 8 109 302 79 7 111
Long, G 66 1868 164 385 86 123 3 17 231 136 63 12 103
Massenburg 73 1247 159 349 84 117 1 1 324 26 30 31 65
Perry, E 2 48 5 10 1 2 0 0 4 7 3 0 7
Solomon, W 62 872 113 331 49 73 46 162 68 92 35 7 62
Gill, E 23 384 39 92 31 39 7 22 28 49 11 3 34
Anderson, N 15 219 21 76 5 9 13 48 33 14 6 6 14
Fotsis, A 28 320 42 104 17 20 7 23 62 10 9 11 21
Austin, I 21 307 36 92 4 4 0 3 71 13 9 5 11
Fontaine, I 6 75 3 14 4 6 1 5 5 4 0 0 4
G FG FGA FT FTA 3P 3PA TRB AST STL BLK TO
Team Totals 82 2851 6535 1334 1883 336 1096 3397 1785 646 488 1344
League Avg 82 2966 6664 1470 1953 428 1209 3477 1798 639 428 1186
Salaries
As usual, I'd like to give credit to Patricia Bender and her excellent NBA
resource site at http://www.dfw.net/~patricia
Memphis Grizzlies Date # of total
Player signed years salary misc FA
Buford ...... 11/19/01 1 minimum '02
Fotsis ...... 10/1/01 1 minimum '02
Gill ........ 2/23/02 1 minimum '02
Long ........ 9/16/99 3 $6.6 milion '02
Anderson .... 8/27/97 4+2 incentive $16 mill +32 mill '03
Massenburg .. 8/3/00 3 $7.425 million '03
Solomon ..... 10/1/01 1 minimum t-opt '03
Knight ...... 7/7/97,11/1/99 3+4 $3,275,000+$20,180,000 '04
Swift ....... 7/18/00 4 $14,797,338 rc t-opt '04
Battier ..... 8/24/01 4 $10,317,122 rc t-opt '05
Gasol ....... 9/18/01 4 $13,899,521 rc t-opt '05
Wright ...... 8/8/99 7 $42 million '06
Dickerson ... 1/21/99,10/30/01 4+6 $5,615,582+$45 mill '08
Williams .... 1/22/99,10/17/01 4+6 $8,193,832+$45 mill '08
- rc = rookie contract, 1st round picks from 1995 and on are signed to 3
year contracts at a set range, with for picks from 1998 and on with a
4th year at the team's option
- t-opt = team option year(s) (if team chooses, player will be under
contract for another year)
- FA = year player becomes a free agent (year = summer of) [Note: For
players who have less than 3 years of experience (most noteably,
rookies), the players are restricted free agents - their team can match
any offer made to the player. 1st round draft picks who have completed
the 4th year of their rookie contract are also restricted free agents.]
The NBA salary cap is 42.5 million dollars. The salary cap next season will probably be between 42.5 and 44.5 million. Any way you slice it, there is work to do with the Grizzlies salary cap situation. That the Griz signed two players to near maximum contracts after finally moving toward getting Bryant Reeves off the payroll is mind-boggling.
Future salary cap numbers
02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08
Memphis $52,152,784 $44,369,402 $20,900,000 $22,825,000 $16,500,000 $17,875,000
So if the Grizzlies want to make any FA moves in the next two years, they're going to have to move some of their high priced players with expiring contracts.
Memphis Grizzlies Total: $50,920,631
Bryant Reeves .............. $11,555,554
Isaac Austin ............... $5,695,715
Lorenzen Wright ............ $5,500,000
Nick Anderson .............. $5,401,906
Brevin Knight .............. $4,500,000
Stromile Swift ............. $3,401,640
Pau Gasol .................. $2,970,840
Jason Williams ............. $2,554,072
Grant Long ................. $2,400,000
Shane Battier .............. $2,203,080
Michael Dickerson .......... $1,940,702
Tony Massenburg ............ $1,650,000
Rodney Buford .............. $481,488
Antonis Fotsis ............. $332,817
Will Solomon ............... $332,817
III. Current Team/Player Breakdown
Guards
Jason Williams - one of the most talented yet most frustrating players in the NBA. He grew up about three miles from where Jerry West was born, so I think West will give Williams a chance to show what he can do. He's going to have to play really well to justify his max contract, though.
Brevin Knight - a good backup player and solid starter who is making more money than the Grizzlies would like to pay. I would think that the Grizzlies will try and package Knight with another player to try and clear cap space -- but this won't be an easy trade to make.
Will Soloman - a nice backup player making backup money. I expect that there is a good chance the Grizzlies will exercise their option on Soloman for one more year.
Michael Dickerson - a good player, but I'm still stunned that the Grizzlies have him with a near maxed out contract. Dickerson is another excellent option as a player to be traded. Miami perhaps?
Eddie Gill - another backup point guard who may or may not stick around after being signed for the season after a couple of 10-day stints.
Forwards/Swing Forwards
Pau Gasol - perhaps the surprise of the 2001 draft, Gasol impressed early and improved during the season -- a player not exactly like Dirk Nowitski but in his mold. With additional age, experience, and improvement, Pau could be a superstar in the league for years to come.
Shane Battier - I expected Battier to be a solid NBA player, but he is playing at a slightly higher level than I expected. Battier is another "glue" player who can also contribute more than normally expected from such a player. He has quickness to play 2 and 3 and the strength to play a little 4. He and Gasol provide a good building block for the Grizzlies.
Nick Anderson - not a bad veteran to have around, but at this point the Grizzlies would be much happier having the cap room at this point in time.
Rodney Buford - a FA whose market value I am unsure of. Unless there are wholesale roster changes, there's a good chance the Grizzlies will re-sign Buford -- if the price is right...and if the Grizzlies aren't too upset with his five-day substance abuse suspension.
Antonis Fotsis - a rookie with some size. Not sure what the Grizzlies or Fotsis' long-term plans are, but they may not coincide.
Centers/Post Players
Bryant Reeves - retired
Isaac Austin -- waived
Lorenzen Wright -- a Memphis-area guy who has to be happy he's back in Memphis. I liked Wright coming out of college but he hasn't been a consistent performer in the NBA. A big contract that means if someone is interested in Wright, he could be moved, though he might still have a future in Memphis.
Stromile Swift - another player I liked coming out of college. He's starting to come on and he will be a player I think Jerry West will be watching closely this season.
Tony Massenburg - a NBA veteran I remember well from his years at Maryland. He's providing solid minutes for the Grizzlies.
Grant Long - a solid NBA veteran whose time with the Grizzles (and the NBA?) is likely nearing an end.
IV. Future Direction
The main problem Jerry West has to solve is the simply terrible salary cap mess the Grizzlies are in right now. Bryant Reeves will be coming off the books, but the big contracts leave West with little room to work for two years.
I think West will give Jason Williams a year to show that he's going to become a basketball player instead of a novelty act. If things don't progress well, then he will look to move him.
In fact, if West can move any of his high salary players this year (outside of Gasol and Battier), he will likely do it. As well as properly using high draft picks, West will be eager to clear cap space to work the free agent market. My expectation is that West will look to pursue Tim Duncan as well as Elton Brand and any of the other Clippers he has interest in entering the free agent market in the near future. Outside of the Lakers, there is likely not a NBA team Jerry West has more information on than the Clippers.
The Grizzlies also have the Bird and mid-level exemptions to work with this year, too.
V. Draft Options
If the Grizzlies hold pick number 4, their draft options are likely:
- Yao Ming -- unlikely to be available at #4. Even if he is available, there's a chance West would pass on him (depending on the talks with the Chinese government and the Shanghai Sharks), continuing a slide to the mid-late part of the lottery. Yao is a very skilled big man -- in the European sense. He probably wouldn't help you against Shaq, but he'd probably help you a lot in the East. Will need to be paired with a big and/or strong power forward for optimum performance.
- Jason, er, Jay Williams -- unlikely to be available at #4. I think given Jason Williams' contract situation, West is unlikely to draft a point/lead guard unless he's exceptional. I don't think Jay Williams, though very good, meets this criterion.
- Mike Dunleavy -- it's a poorly kept secret that West really likes the 6'9" G/F from Duke. He should. If he can hold up defensively at the 2/3 spots, his offensive game can really help a NBA team. He's the type of heady, savvy player that often goes unappreciated in the NBA -- except for people like Jerry West. West understands that the glue is as important as the pieces.
- Chris Wilcox -- the Grizzlies can use some help inside. However great Wilcox's NBA potential is, I think West wants to make sure he doesn't end up with another Stromile Swift (up to this point) on his roster. I like Wilcox's NBA potential as a 4 and would not be at all surprised for Wilcox to be the Grizzlies' pick if Dunleavy isn't available.
- Caron Butler -- an interesting choice for the Grizzlies if he makes it this far in the draft. With Battier and Gasol, it would seem that there is a budding logjam at 2-3-4 and someone who was a good shooter would be a better fit. However, I like Butler's toughness and his chances in the NBA -- I'm just not sure how good of a fit he is in Memphis.
- Nikoloz Tskitishvili - an intriguing choice out of Georgia. Taking a flyer on a guy with height here (6'11" ish vs 6'9" ish) isn't the worst idea in the world. Like most European players, scouting is difficult, but if he can play center/power forward, he could be a great fit for the Grizzlies in a couple of years.
- Drew Gooden -- he is a Memphis choice in many mock drafts. However, I don't think he's a good fit with Battier/Gasol at this time. I think the Grizzlies can do better.
- Qyntel Woods -- another SF prospect who may do very well in the league, but there are a lot of question marks with this JC product and I have a feeling Memphis isn't strongly considering Woods.
- Dajuan Wagner -- how to best describe Wagner -- Iverson II? Wagner has a world of potential but is his game too much like Jason Williams for Memphis to seriously consider him? I wouldn't have Wagner listed as a possibility for Memphis except that he played his year of college ball in Memphis so the Grizzlies should have all the information they need about him. It's a long shot, but if the Grizzlies see something they like they might take him.
VII. Draft Pick
Yao Ming, C, Shanghai Sharks
It is unlikely Yao will be available at this position, however, if he is; it's a pick that I don't think the Grizzlies can pass up. In this mock draft, my choice came down to Yao, Wilcox, and Tskitishvili. The need for size, even if the player is a bit slight of build, is too great for the Grizzlies. Also, Yao could play alongside Duncan, Olowokandi, or Brand if Memphis is able to entice one of them to sign as a FA with the Grizzlies.
VIII. What will the Grizzlies do?
The Grizzlies will almost certainly take Dunleavy if he is available. I think that Jerry West likes a lineup with Dunleavy at 2, Battier at 3, and Gasol at 4.
I do wonder if Golden State is trying to convince Memphis they are going to take Dunleavy. This is a dangerous game to play with Jerry West. If the Grizzlies can't or don't take Dunleavy, then the most likely scenarios are:
1a) Draft Wilcox
1b) Draft Tskitishvili
3) Draft Butler
4) Trade down
|
