Cleveland has the 20th pick.  As was the case with
the 12th pick, the Cavs are represented by:

  Steve Chapin

and the Cavs select:

  Ryan Minor, SF, 6-7, Oklahoma  

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I. Team Needs/History

Again this year, the Cavs overachieved enough in the regular season to
earn a chance at an early playoff exit.  Mike Fratello is a good
enough coach to get his guys to play some of the best team basketball
in the NBA, but they just don't have the firepower to match up with
the stars they face in the higher-intensity playoffs.  In effect, the
Cavs play the whole year as if it were the playoffs, and have nothing
left to give at the end.

Obligatory whine:  the best team defense in the NBA, and the highest
any Cav finishes is third-team all NBA on defense?  Man, that Mike
Fratello must be one hell of a coach.  Of course he never gets any
votes for CoTY, either.

Their needs this year are the same as last:  a true center and a
dynamic scorer for the 2/3 position.  I expect the Cavs to try and
fill at least one of these positions through the draft, and the other
through free agency.   The problem may be that there might well be
only 2nd-level big men available with the #12 pick, and 2nd-level
scorers with the #20.  Spending the #12 on a scorer might be an
option, but it would "overspend" that pick.

In particular, the picks I'd like to see them get both come from MSU:
Eric Dampier and Dantae Jones.  However, I'm sure Dampier will be gone
by #12, and I expect Jones will be gone by #20.  Jones could be picked
with the #12, but that seems a bit of a reach.

Oh, yeah, and Danny Ferry will be with this team forever.  Bleah.

   A. CENTER

Michael Cage is still an adequate backup, and John Amechi might reach
that level someday.  Neither they, nor any of the other PF the Cavs
have been playing as centers should ever be mistaken for a true NBA
starting center.  The Cavs will have to resign Cage as a FA, and I'm
sure they will.  Brad Daugherty has finally realized he won't be back
in the NBA any time soon (*), so the Cavs will have his salary slot
available this year.  If only he'd realized this more than a year ago,
when they could've used the money to sign someone.

Given that the Cavs are picking at #12, and that the true center
prospects will most likely be gone then, I expect them to pursue a FA
solution to their problem at center.  Shaq is right out, so that
leaves them looking at players like Brian Williams.  He would be
adequate (I hate to admit that about Brian Williams (*)) but not a
real long-term answer.  Dikembe Mutombo would give an inside presence,
and I can entertain dreams of Alonzo Mourning or Juwan Howard, but I
don't think any of them will actually be available.

(*) Never, actually, but Bad Brad can't bring himself to admit that,
    yet. 

(**) Brian Williams is a stiff.

   B. POWER FORWARD

No problems here, as long as Tyrone Hill fully recovers from his auto
accident last year.  He struggled when he first came back, but signs
late in the season lead me to believe that he'll be ok.  John Amechi,
Michael Cage, et al. can fill the backup, and this position is solid
enough that drafting here would only be an incremental improvement,
rather than the real push the Cavs need to become a threat to actually
win a first-round playoff series.

   C. SMALL FORWARD

Again, the Cavs have adequate SF in Chris Mills (and sometimes Danny
Ferry), but no star.  This is one of the positions they must be
examining for improvement.  I'd like to see John Wallace here, but I'm
a realist; he won't be available at #12.  Dantae Jones would be a
great fit, but again I'm concerned about overspending the #12 for him.

Dan Majerle did ok splitting time as a SF/SG, but his 3-pt percentage
is way down from prior years, and I don't expect the Cavs to go out of
their way to resign him.

   D. SHOOTING GUARD

Bobby Phills has improved his shooting touch so that rims no longer
cringe in anticpation of his thundering bricks.  He is still one of
the strongest 2-guards around, but he'll never have the range to
strike fear into opponents.  Bob Sura was an extremely pleasant
surprise, as he actually scored more often than he threw the ball into
the stands.  He could develop into a quality #2, although not
all-star caliber.  A dynamite #2 would be a good use of the #20 pick,
but we'll have to wait and see who's available.

   E. POINT GUARD

Terrell "I can block Dikembe Mutombo, and you can't!" Brandon finally
got out of Mark Price's shadow, and made the all-star team.  He will
give the Cavs fine leadership for several more years.  John Crotty was
a sometimes-adequate backup, and Sura spent some time backing up the
point as well.  I don't expect to see this happen much this year.
Crotty should be let go, and Sura moved to a #2 full time to challenge
Phills.  The Cavs should sign a backup PG off the free agent list (can
you say Mark Price?  I knew you could).

************************

To summarize, the Cavs are strong at PG, solid at PF, and may develop
a good shooting guard from the crop they have.  They lack any prospect
of a center, and could use a dynamic small forward.  I place higher
priority on the center position.

II. Your Selection (and explanation)

The Cavs select:  Ryan Minor, Oklahoma.

Minor is a better SF than anyone the Cavs have now.  Chris Mills seems
to have had a relapse since his good rookie season, and they already
have a prospect at SG in Sura.  What sealed this choice for me were
two lines in the scouting report on Craig's web site:

"Defense -- He can play defense.  We're not talking Grant Hill or
Stacey Augmon, but he's not Bob Sura." and "Quickness ... As with his
defense, he's no Grant Hill, but he's not Danny Ferry."

How could I not pick a player whose accolades include favorable
comparisons to two current Cavs?  :-)

III. Others considered (and why considered)

Jason Sasser, Texas Tech.  A slightly better defender than Minor, and
not quite as good on the offensive end.  The Cavs are looking for
offense, so I gave the nod to Minor.

Tony Delk, Kentucky.  Delk is a better pure scorer than Minor, but I
can't quite stomach the idea of having both the PG (Brandon) and the
SG being 6'1".  I know that Delk's quickness makes up some for his
lack of height, but having 2 short guards on the floor at the same
time is just asking for trouble.

Basically, this came down to a coin toss between Minor and Delk.
Either of these players is a good pick at this draft position.  Both
would represent an improvement on the offensive end over what is now
available.  On defense, though, Bobby Phills is one of the best
defensive SG in the league, and I'm still worried about Delk's size on
defense.  Their shooting percentages are about the same over their
careers, although Delk had a better senior season than did Minor.  I
attribute some of that to Minor trying to carry the load at Oklahoma.

IV.  Who the team will probably take

A darned good question.  I'm sure they'll go after some big body, but
I don't know which one.  Todd Fuller, perhaps, if he's still available
(he wasn't in the Usenet draft).

V.  Other moves that the team should make

1) Sign a backup PG (Mark Price?  Robert Pack?)
2) Pick up Brian Williams, or equivalent, as a FA.
3) Arrange a convenient back injury for Danny Ferry to get his salary
   slot back.
4) Pursue Jon Barry (yeah, like it'll happen).