When the draft started June 10th, Denver had the 10th pick.  Right after
making that pick, the Pacers and Nuggets pulled off a trade.  Denver
receive the 23rd pick along with Jalen Rose and Reggie Williams in exchange
for the 10th pick, Mark Jackson and Ricky Pierce.  Because the Usenet draft
was not much past the 10th pick, we retreated and put the trade into the
Usenet draft.  The GM is again:

  Chuck D'Ambra

and with the 23rd pick, the Nuggets select:

  Moochie Norris, PG, 6-0, West Florida

============================================================================
An analysis was completed and a pick made for the #10 overall selection just
hours before Denver traded it (plus Jalen Rose and Reggie Williams) to
Indiana for Mark Jackson, Ricky Pierce and the #23 spot.  I'm leaving the
analysis largely unchanged but have added some remarks on how that trade
(and a second which sent Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf to Sacramento for Sarunas
Marciulionis and a second round selection) changes things.

**********

I. Team Needs/History

Following several years of mediocrity, the Denver Nuggets began a rebuilding
plan in 1990 that appeared to be working.  The team's 1994 first round upset
of the top seeded Seattle Sonics and subsequent extension of the Utah Jazz
to a seventh game in the conference semi-finals are the franchise's high
points of the last decade.

High expectations created by this success were dashed the following season, as
the Nuggets struggled to gain the final playoff spot on the last day of the
regular season and were swept in the first round by the Spurs.  Notwithstanding
occasional high points, such as victories over the Bulls and Magic, the team
regressed further in the 1995-96 season, losing the first 6 contests and
finishing out of the playoffs at 35-47.

Team needs are many:

- Veteran leadership.  At least that's what the front office is saying.
  While still a young team overall, several on the current roster now have
  4-5 years experience.  Presumably then, management means one or more
  players with 6-10 years in the league and/or late round playoff experience.

- A new attitude.  Too many times responses by players and coaches to
  officiating resulted in technical fouls and ejections and took the
  team out of the game in the process.  Certain players seem concerned
  with individual stats and awards to the point of losing focus on team
  achievements.  The team oriented, hard working attitude of a few key
  players needs to spread to the rest of the roster, and everyone needs
  to concentrate on doing their own job and let the officials do theirs.

- One, if not two, "go to" guys.  When the game was on the line, time after
  time Denver had one option - Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf, who may not be in a
  Nuggets uniform next season..

- An offense that pushes the pace and moves the ball around.  In just
  two seasons the offense has been transformed from an uptempo passing
  game to a seemingly endless series of "feed it into the low post and
  create something."  Denver has the altitude on their side at home, and
  a running game is the best way to use it.

- Another scorer, especially from the perimeter.  Dale Ellis and MAR
  were the principal outside threats this past season.  Ellis, who can't
  contribute big minutes at his age, is a free agent who may not be back
  either.  Even with both these guys, at least one more offensive weapon
  is needed.

- Better defensive schemes.  Former Sonics assistant coach Bob Kloppenburg
  was brought in to teach aggressive trapping defense.  Things were
  simplified after the disastrous start in November.  I'm not sure
  how much of it was the players not picking up the system and how much
  of it was the system being unrealistic without personnel ideally suited
  to it.  Trademarks of the revised system were double teaming no matter
  who has the ball and switching on picks every time.  When that's all
  you do, better teams will find a way to exploit it.

- As far as personnel goes, a position by position analysis follows, but in
  short:
  -- A complete point guard who pushes the pace, finds his teammates, hits
     perimeter shots and plays D.
  -- A shooting guard who gives opponents problems at both ends of the floor.
  -- One more guy who contributes in the frontcourt, ideally a center
     with some size and skills.

A. Center:

Dikembe Mutombo, a 3 time all star, has anchored the pivot the past 5
seasons.  He's one of the best defensive players in the game, especially
as help when the ball is brought inside.  Offensively, he's shown some
improvement - in the past season improving his free throw percentage dramatically (to 69.5%) and adding an occasional mid range jump shot to
his arsenal - but he's not a major scoring threat and hasn't had a lot of
plays called for him since the ill-fated Paul Westhead years.  Deke is a
free agent who has made it clear that money will be the overriding concern
in which team will sign him to a new contract.  He says that in his native
Zaire the whole village is family, and he has a family of 5,000 to support
now.  Mutombo is represented by David Falk, and the numbers tossed around are
difficult to believe, even in light of current talk for new player contracts.

Having traded away Brian Williams to acquire Antonio McDyess, backup center
was handled primarily by McDyess and Tom Hammonds (see Forwards).  Both can
do an adequate job when smaller lineups are on the floor, but someone with size
and decent skills would give the team better options when Mutombo (if re-signed)
is on the bench.

Matt Fish was acquired late in the season.  His effort makes him a crowd
favorite, but the guy just has no skills.  The team also drafted Anthony
Pelle in the second round last year and signed Rastko Cvetkovic, who
had played well in Europe.  Both are big enough to play the position but
have not shown NBA games.

B. Power Forward:

Antonio McDyess was acquired on draft day last June after being selected second overall by the Clippers.  After his rookie season, it's clear why the team was
willing to give up Rodney Rogers, Brian Williams and draft pick Brent Barry
for McDyess and two stiffs who were released early in the season.  The rookie
first team selection has tremendous athletic ability, featuring an exceptional
vertical leap, and adequate size and strength to play the position.   He's
a powerful dunker and already has a nice post up game, with a sweet and
unstoppable turnaround jumper.  He also plays well on the defensive end.
Look for him to become the franchise player in just another season or two.

LaPhonso Ellis and Hammonds get most of the remaining minutes at the 4.
Ellis was the starting small forward during the last 1/3 or so of the
season, but PF is his natural position.  Hammonds is not the most gifted
player in the league, but he takes whatever minutes he gets without
complaining and occassionally makes a big contribution.  This position is
the most solid on the team.

C. Small Forward:

After missing about a season and a half due to a rare condition in which
holes developed in both knee caps, LaPhonso Ellis had to adjust to getting
most of his minutes at the 3.  Prior to a fracture that led to discovery
of the condition, Phonz was approaching all star level at power forward.
Flashes of the old form were evident in the 45 games he played this past
season, mainly in rebounding and defense, but his shot just wasn't there,
and he did not get back to his pre-injury level.  One of the hardest
working players in the game, don't be surprised to see a big improvement
next season.  Unfortunately, a repeat of the medical problem cannot be
ruled out, and a promising career may yet be abbreviated.

Don MacLean missed several games in '95-96 with a series of injuries. When
healthy, he often did a nice job providing offense from the bench.  Dale
Ellis also provided scoring and was one of the few outside threats.  Reggie
Williams, who formerly started at this position, took a huge dive in '95-96
and may well be gone.  Bryant Stith and Jalen Rose can also play the position.
MacLean and Dale Ellis are free agents.  Denver should make every reasonable
effort to re-sign both.

D. Shooting Guard:

Bryant Stith and Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf got the bulk of the minutes at the 2 this
past season.  Stith, the team captain, is an above average defender who really
plays hard at both ends.  He has never provided the scoring needed for the
position (13.6 ppg last season).

MAR is one of the best pure shooters in the game and often the go to guy at
crunch time.  He cannot defend other 2s, and teams love to exploit him no
matter who he guards.  He's just not going to be a big contributor to a
championship caliber team and has not been comfortable in a supporting role.
MAR's refusal to stand for the national anthem has severely eroded his
support in Denver, and a trade would probably be best for everyone concerned.

E. Point Guard:

Point guard duties were primarily handled by MAR and Jalen Rose.  MAR is
great at creating his own shot, average at best in finding his teammates
and a liability on defense.  Rose may yet develop into a pretty good point
guard, but his game is better suited for a team that relies on half court
offense, and the Nuggets should be running a lot more.

Doug Overton was acquired with MacLean in a trade for Robert Pack and got
significant minutes when MAR went out with a foot injury soon after the
anthem flap.  Overton did not earn a more prominent role.  If he's back,
it should be as the 3rd PG.

Greg Grant was re-acquired late in the season.  The only thing he brings
is a ball handler who pushes the pace, as Bernie Bickerstaff so desperately
wants.  That advantage is more than offset by his diminutive size, average
passing and miserable scoring ability.

In summary, the Nuggets are pretty well set at the forwards, provided
LaPhonso Ellis stays healthy.  If Mutombo is re-signed or a reasonable
replacement found, the frontcourt as a whole is one player short of
complete.  That one player is ideally a true center worthy of significant
minutes, although McDyess could continue to handle the backup duties if a
talented forward is acquired instead.  Help is needed in both backcourt
positions.

**********

After last weeks trades, Denver now has a committee of Stith, Marciulionis
and Pierce to handle shooting guard.  Stith is likely to remain the starter,
while Marciulionis is a capable backup, if healthy.  Ricky Pierce and Reggie
Williams were in the Indiana deal to make it work under the salary cap.
If Pierce, who will be 37 before the new season starts, can still provide
some scoring off the bench, he can fill the role provided the last two
seasons by Dale Ellis.  The team could then use the money that would have
gone to re-signing Ellis towards a younger, higher echelon free agent.  In
any event, the 2 spot is in somewhat better shape, and attention should be
directed to finding a backup and eventual successor to Mark Jackson, plus
another solid frontcourt player.

**********


II. Selection

At number 10 I had selected Todd Fuller of North Carolina State.  With the
#23 selection, my pick is Moochie Norris, PG from West Florida.  His strong
showing at the Portsmouth Invitational, ball handling skills and outside shot
make him a good choice to fill the opening at PG created with last week's trades.


III. Others considered

Had Houston not taken Steve Nash, I'd probably have taken him here.

Drew Barry, PG, Georgia Tech
Jeff McInnis, PG, North Carolina
  two other PG candidates from excellent programs

Tony Delk, G, Kentucky
  not too seriously considered though, as he could be another incarnation
  of MAR (shooting guard game in point guard's body)


IV.  Who the team will probably take

There are few players in this year's draft likely to become stars in the NBA
and possibly none who'll be available with the tenth pick.  Denver worked
out several possible selections at that spot and chose to trade the pick.  I
have to think Bernie Bickerstaff likes someone who should still be available
at #23 - thus, he gets the veteran PG he's wanted by trading for Jackson and
still gets a player with potential.

While the team still needs another big man, it's rare that one who can
contribute meaningfully is available at this point in the draft.  Players
who develop into solid PGs are sometimes available after the lottery picks
have been made, and I expect that's the direction Denver will go with the
23rd selection.  Norris and the others considered are the best candidates
who may be available.


V.  Other moves that the team should make

How the Mutombo situation is resolved will define what other moves the team
should and can afford to make.  Dikembe is a defensive force and one of the
top 10 centers in the game today. While his offensive game has gradually
improved, he has hands of stone and is still an (at best) average offensive
threat.  With McDyess and hopefully Phonz at the forwards, the Nuggets would
not be in bad shape in the frontcourt without him. Complimenting those two
with a more serious scoring threat, if average defender, is a viable
alternative.  Re-sign Mutombo, if the price is reasonable, say starting at
$6 million per year.  Most likely, that's not going to be nearly enough
(rumor is Falk will be after $10-12 million per).  If that's the case, let
him go and offer a contract to Brian Williams or Elden Campbell, possibly
leaving some cap room for another free agent.  Another rumor is that
Denver will re-sign Mutombo, whatever it takes, then trade him for another
all star caliber player.

With the MAR situation resolved and Bernie Bickerstaff getting the veteran
PG he's wanted in Mark Jackson, two needs have been addressed (though it's
debatable whether the new personnel are an improvement).  A backup and
eventual successor to Jackson at PG now becomes a priority.

I had suggested a reprise of last year's draft day trade that landed McDyess,
this time to get Ray Allen.  Having traded down in the draft and acquiring
two other true shooting guards, it's doubtful Denver will go in that direction.
Still, the personnel now on the roster largely consists of role players.
To become a serious contender, at least one standout needs to be acquired.
Signing an upper echelon free agent or making another trade remain options for
addressing this key need.

Some pundits have suggested keeping as few as 4-5 guys from last season's
roster. While a case can be made that that's about all who deserve to stay,
it's tough to build a cohesive team with 7-8 new faces.  Reversing those
numbers and including a couple stars among the 4-5 new Nuggets holds better
promise for recapturing the momentum of two years ago.