John selects:
Ed Gray

 



Team Needs/History

    The Rockets are at a bit of a crossroads as a franchise.  Their key
players (Olajuwon, Barkley, and Drexler) are all nearing the end of their
careers (especially Barkley and Drexler), so one could argue that the team
needs to start looking towards rebuilding for the future.  On the other
hand, the assembled talent is clearly still a serious competitor for the
title, which would argue for trying to pick up one or two more players for
a last title run or two, and then rebuild from scratch.  Personally, I
favor the latter approach, since in this new age of free agency and
three-year rookie contracts, it would be possible to recreate an excellent
team from near scratch once the big contract's of some of Houston's
veterans are gone.

    Although the Rockets failed to achieve their goal of bringing home
another title, I would still rate their season a success.  I believe that
they had the third best team in the playoffs, and were not very far off the
pace set by the Bulls or Jazz.  The Rockets-Jazz series was essentially a
toss-up, but in the end, Stockton made the plays in games five and six to
win it for Utah.  If Houston had made the Finals, I am confident that they
could have given Chicago at least as much of a series as Utah, which is to
say, they very well could have won it with a favorable bounce here and
there.

    Before deciding who they should pick, let's first evaluate what they
already have, starting at the top.


    A. CENTER: What can I say?  Although he doesn't receive the hype of
Shaquille, or even David Robinson, HAKEEM OLAJUWON is hands down the best
big man in the league.  In my opinion, he is the second best player in the
game today, behind his Airness.  You certainly never see Hakeem fail to
step up to bat in crucial games, like Malone did throughout the Finals.
Hakeem dominates both ends of the court, even when matched up against the
other elite centers.  Basically, he does it all: low post scoring, mid
range jumpers, passing out of the double/triple team, rebounding, man to
man defense, "team" defense -- you name it, he dominates it.  It seems
pointless to continue to extol his virtues.  Even his passing has greatly
improved -- it's not safe to double team him any more and assume that he
will turn the ball over or make a poor pass.  Houston is set at starting
center until Hakeem decides to hang up his jock strap and become a Muslim
missionary or something.

Behind Hakeem, Houston is much deeper and more talented than they have been
in years.  KEVIN WILLIS has been an All Star in the past, and although
nobody would attempt to claim that he still plays at that level, he played
quite well behind Hakeem throughout the regular season, and stepped in and
played admirably whenever Hakeem or Barkley were injured.  On the other
hand, how can I put this, he sucked big time in the playoffs, which
certainly hurt Houston's drive for the title.  Frankly, I was surprised to
see Kevin struggle so much, given his excellent regular season play, and as
a result, I would add "backup big man" to Houston's list of possible needs.
I doubt it's one that they'll actively work to improve, though, what with
Kevin having a fairly hefty free agent contract, and there being a young
turk in the wings in the form of OTHELLA HARRINGTON.  More on Othella
below.

    B. POWER FORWARD: This is the position where Houston made the most
change in the last off season, bringing in CHARLES BARKLEY and Willis, and
drafting Othella Harrington at the beginning of the second round.  Like
Hakeem, Barkley is one of the truly elite NBA players of all time.  The
years are starting to take their toll on the Chuckster, but for the first
time in several years, he avoided serious injury.  Combining that with the
lack of back problems, and my concern about his health has abated somewhat.
Chucky is not the one man wrecking crew that he was several years ago, but
he still demands a frequent double team and can take over the boards.  His
scoring average was well down this year, but that's not surprising given
that he is now surrounded by other players who can pick up the slack.  Like
Willis, he really struggled in the Utah series, and there were certainly
times where I wished Rudy would quit calling Barkley's number, given that
his "backin' it in, backin' it in..." low post moves were totally useless
against Malone, who is one of the few forwards who is bigger, stronger,
*and* quicker than Charles.  If he'd given up a few of his shots for Hakeem,
Houston would have been better off (IMNSHO).

Willis is the first big man off the bench for Houston, behind both Hakeem
and Chuck, but first year player OTHELLA HARRINGTON got a decent amount of
quality playing time.  In last year's USENET draft, I mentioned that I
considered taking Othella with Houston's first round pick (an idea quickly
squelched when I saw that Steve Nash was still available).  I was worried
that he didn't have the size and strength to take the day in, day out
beating dished out inside in the NBA, and while I'm still not convinced,
Othella did better than I anticipated.  He definitely needs a few years of
refinement, and he definitely has rookie-foul-itis, but he is a talented
rebounder and at times demonstrated an ability to score in the low post.
Given his presence, I doubt Houston will pick up another big man in the
draft, since there just won't be enough playing time to develop two
youngsters.

    C. SMALL FORWARD:  Houston is fairly well off at small forward, with
MARIO ELIE starting and CLYDE DREXLER sliding over to give Elie a rest from
time to time.  Elie is a stereotypical Tomjanovich role player.  He plays
his heart out, never stops hustling, knows his role, and contributes a hell
of a lot to the team.  Although he's usually the third or fourth option on
offense, Elie is capable of hitting the open 3 or creating his own shot
(often a driving finger roll from about three feet out).  His dagger in
the heart, kiss them goodbye shot against Phoenix two years ago is still
one of my all time favorite sequences.  Although he's not particularly tall
or quick, Elie is quite strong and hustles like made, making him a good
defender.  He can be outquicked, but it's hard to out smart or out hustle
Super Mario.

    Prior to the playoffs, SAM MACK got a decent amount of time at the
swing position.  Sam played fairly well, and was able to score enough to
warrant keeping around at the position, but given Elie and Drexler's age,
and the general abundance of swing type players in the late stages, I 
would expect them to draft for that position, unless a great point guard
slips really deep.

    D. SHOOTING GUARD: Although he only has a couple of years left in
him (I'd guesstimate two), CLYDE DREXLER is still one of the league's
elite 2-guards.  Never a spectacular outside shooter, which sets him
apart from most of Houston's backcourt, Clyde excels as the second
offensive option behind Hakeem.  He usually defers to Hakeem, Charles,
or an open three point shooter, but when Houston needs a bucket, Clyde
can and does usually create.  He's most dangerous going to the hole,
since at 6'7"+, he towers over most other shooting guards.  Drexler is
also an excellent rebounder (something Houston desperately needs) and a
decent defender, which is pretty much why he is consistently an NBA
All Star.  His primary deficiencies are his age, and thus his injury
problems, and the fact that he's not fast enough to keep up with some
of the mighty mites of the NBA.  Luckily, with Hakeem behind him, he
can afford to take risks on defense without giving up a definite layup.
Also, he seemed to be willing to toss up the three's too often in the
playoffs this year, which I take as a sign that he's tiring.  While
Clyde's outside shot has improved over the years, he is not the guy you
want shooting threes with inside threats like Hakeem, Barkley, and Willis
able to get easier shots.

Clyde's first backup is Mario Elie (see above).  During the rash of
injuries, Tomjanovich always manages to find a couple of diamonds in the
rough from the CBA or retreads from past glories.  This year's cast of
thousands is led by EDDIE JOHNSON, who is a consummate shooter.  Eddie
is the kind of guy who is *never* afraid to take the last shot (or the
first shot, or *any* shot, for that matter).  While he doesn't play
defense worth a damn, his ability to come off the bench and score in
bunches is a very nice addition to any bench.  Who can forget his 31 pts
and last second three pointer against Utah?  However, if Eddie misses
his first three or four shots, you'd better sit him down for the rest of
the game, because he won't stop shooting.  As I said above, the general
age and lack of young depth at the swing positions would lead me to pick
the best swing man available at the 22nd pick.

    E. POINT GUARD: This is the position where Houston made a complete
overhaul last offseason.  Out went Kenny Smith, Sam Cassell, and
Eldridge Recaster.  In came BRENT PRICE, MATT MALONEY, RANDY LIVINGSTONE,
and SEDALE THREATT (for the playoffs).  Price was signed to a fairly
hefty free agent contract after having an exceptionally good year for
the Bullets two years back, but he was snakebit all year.  After he spent
most of the early season on the bench with a broken arm (?), he only
returned for a couple of weeks before blowing out his knee.  At this
point, he's a complete unknown.  As a Bullet, he was a dead-eye gunner
from the 3-point arc, which is the most important skill required of a
Rocket point guard.  He displayed none of his shooting touch while a
Rocket, but presumably much of that was due to him not being healthy.
I guess we'll see.

    With Price out for the season, unsigned free agent pickup Matt
Maloney was given the starting position, and became the only rookie to
start all 82 games last year.  He averaged almost 10ppg and 3.5apg, and
shot over 40% from behind the arc.  What by all rights should have been
a disastrously weak position for the Rockets, turned out to be quite
adequate, thank you.  After Price was injured, Rudy planned to shop
around for another veteran point guard, but several of the Rocket vets,
led by Barkley, told Rudy to "give the kid a chance -- he can do it."
And do it he did... at least until game four of the Western Conference
SemiFinals against Seattle.  Until then, Houston had thrived off of their
inside-out offense, with Hakeem or Charles drawing the double team, and
then kicking it out for the open three pointer.  Part way through the
Seattle series, however, George Karl figured out that it was a good idea
to *not* leave Maloney wide open, and in fact to pressure him with 
everything you've got.  After that point, Matt was essentially a non-
-factor, and his poor play against John Stockton certainly helped doom
Houston's playoff chances.  Then again, he *was* a rookie, and rookie
point guards usually suck.  I'll be curious to see how he grows as a
player.   T

They really need to resign Maloney, and then they should be looking
to trade one of the three point young point guards (Maloney,
Livingstone, or Price) for a young swingman or young power
forward (or draft pick).


    Behind Maloney for much of the regular season was Randy Livingstone,
the once-heralded PG from LSU.  By all accounts, it was a medical miracle
that Livingstone played at all last year.  He'd suffered a series of
horrible knee injuries at LSU, and had slipped from one of the top five
high school recruits to a late second rounder as a result.  Houston
picked him with the intention of leaving him on injured reserve for a
year while he recuperated and worked on his game, but Randy would have
nothing of it.  In fact, he played damned well!  He isn't (yet) a great
outside shooter, but he's far and away a better ballhandler and passer
than Maloney.  I was really annoyed with Tomjanovich's decision to leave
Livingstone languishing on the bench in the playoffs after Maloney, and
then Threatt, proved incapable of playing with either Gary Payton or
John Stockton.  Although Randy is not a threat to score 20 points, like
Maloney or Threatt, he also isn't nearly as likely to get rattled by the
tough in-your-face defense of Payton or the push-n-grab defense of
Stockton.  Personally, I'd like to see more of Livingstone in the future.

    Finally, the last Rocket at the overstocked point guard position is
Sedale Threatt, another late season pickup (like Eddie Johnson) picked
to give Houston more veteran experience in the playoffs.  Sedale played 
quite well in that role, and definitely caused Seattle and Utah some
fits when he was in there.  However, Sedale is certainly not a long term 
option, and I'm not sure if he'll even be with the Rockets come next year
when Price is back from his injuries.

    F. COACHING/FRONT OFFICE: A few years ago I would have never
thought I could say this, but Houston has one of the best front office
and coaching staffs in the league.  RUDY TOMJANOVICH is probably the
most underrated coach in the league, turning a team that had very
little chemistry and guts and turning them into a well-oiled machine
that won two straight championships.  He is a player's coach, and his
players know exactly what their role is, something that you cannot say
about most teams.  Sometimes the players cannot adapt to Rudy's plans
for them (witness bad boy Vernon Maxwell), but in general Rudy gets
the most out of each player possible.  A master of evaluating talent,
Rudy has amazed most observers, including yours truly, at his ability
to find diamonds in the rough with low draft choices (Horry and
Cassell), languishing on the bench of other teams (Elie and Johnson),
and in the CBA (Maloney, Mack, Chucky Brown). 

    G. SUMMARY: Houston has a lot of talent at key positions (C, PF,
SG), good players at others (SF, PG), ok depth (Willis, Harrington,
and a collection of vets), excellent coaching, and great team chemistry.
What they really lack is youth, and enough depth to compete with the
likes of Utah.  Look for them to work to remedy these problems in the
offseason to ready themselves for one of their last serious runs at
the title before Barkley, Drexler, and Olajuwon retire.


II. My Selection (and an explanation)

ED GRAY - The best Swing man left on the board

III. Others considered (and why considered)

1. ANTHONY PARKER
2. DEREK ANDERSON
3. OLIVIER SAINT-JEAN
4. REGGIE FREEMAN

IV. Who the team will probably take

    To tell you the truth, I expect to see the Rockets repeat last
year's trick of trading out of the first round.  All first rounders must
be offered guaranteed three year deals, while you can choose to waive
second rounders at your leisure, or sign them to one year deals.  Last
year's trade worked great, as Houston managed to pick up both Harrington
and Livingstone with their second round picks, while at the same time not
being forced to spend first round money on anybody.  In fact, there's
talk of Houston combining a player and their #1 pick for a couple of
#2's from an expansion team with cap money to burn.  Alternatively,
they might try to trade up, although they do not have much to offer,
given salary cap considerations.

    If they do not trade their pick, I expect them to take the best
player available, with a bias towards players who can play swingman
(SF/SG).  My considerations above are biased on that belief.  If a
really solid inside or point guard prospects slips down to their level,
I would not be at all surprised to see them pounce.  One thing that
has characterized Rudy's tenure as head coach has been his ability to
find solid players with low picks.

    Late Info They have had five players visit so far:

    Big men: Serge Zwikker (yes, really), Pat Burke (Auburn),
	    and Paul Grant (Wisconsin)

    Swingmen: Keith Booth (Maryland), Anthony Parker (Bradley)

I note that only Parker is rated highly by most sources, but
Tomjanovich seemed to like what he saw from Booth.  The
scoop on Booth is that he played PG in high school, but was
forced to switch to PF at Maryland.  They expect him to switch
back to PG/SG in the pros, which would make him a BIG guard.


V. Other moves the team should make

    They really need to resign Maloney, and then they should be looking
to trade one of the three point young point guards (Maloney,
Livingstone, or Price) for a young swingman or young power
forward (or draft pick).
    
    The only other major "move" that they need to make is to convince Barkley
that he wants to return for another year and make another run at a title.
From everything that I have heard, Chucky is leaning strongly towards
coming back.  He hasn't felt better physically in years, and he must be
frustrated to have once again come close to the title he's long sought,
only to be turned away with a couple of close losses.

    Houston's other major off season need is to improve their bench.
At one point during the last season, I was quite content with Houston's
bench trio of Willis, Mack, and Livingstone, but the playoffs proved just
how thin Houston's bench was.  Johnson was just about the only player
off the bench who produced on a regular basis, while Willis, Threatt,
and the rest could not keep the team afloat until the starters returned.
Besides that, those three are all old enough to have played in the first
basketball game with Naismith!  So, the trick is to find some young
talent that can develop and give them solid minutes come playoff time
(e.g., like Anderson and company for Utah).  Price, Maloney, and Randy
probably have what it takes at the point guard position, and Harrington
might develop at power forward, but that still leaves a lot of positions
with no young talent being developed.  The trade for Barkley decimated
Houston's bench, and they need to work to rebuild it ASAP to give the
aging vets more rest.  The Rockets don't have much space under the cap,
but you can always get creative and find somebody.  I haven't a clue
how they will do it, but this must be their focus.