The Rockets really only have two choices: (a) use their huge pool of money under the salary cap to sign a couple of elite free agents to three-year contracts that coincide with Hakeem's likely retirement or (b) unload and start over. Strategy (a) would call for signing Scottie Pippen and Rod Strickland, along with internal free agents Charles Barkley, Mario Elie, and Othella Harrington, to form a true Geritol patrol. Strategy (b) would involve dumping the high contracts, collecting lots of #1 picks, and picking up a young superstar-to-be or two (e.g., Gugliotta and Stoudamire). The trade of Kevin Willis for two mid-first round picks and Roy Rogers makes me hopeful that they'll go with option (b) - unload and start over. If that's the case, don't be surprised to hear that Hakeem gets traded before next season, despite the fact that he's a demigod in Houston.

Ok, first let's look back at last season. The Rockets had what could only be called a mediocre year that ended with a 3-2 first round playoff loss to the Jazz. I was not surprised to see them go only 42-40 in the regular season, since Rudy doesn't really care much about the regular season record and prefers to rest his aging stars for the real season - the playoffs. Unlike their previous championship runs, and even last year's trip to the Western Conference Finals, the Rockets didn't go on a late season mini-tear that seems to signal their "preseason" warmup. I started to get a bit optimistic when they had the superior Jazz down 2-1 in the first round, the only time Utah was challenged in the playoffs before the Bulls in the Finals. But, after Barkley's tendon popped, it was pretty much sayonara. Drexler's last game was a definite downer -- if he'd shown up that game, he would have been able to play at least one more series. Oh well - time to plan for the future.

META-COMMENT: The fact that Houston has only four players under contract is symptomatic of what has happened to the NBA in recent years, as the salary cap and rookie salary structure basically guarantee that teams have 1-3 key players and 1-3 recent first round picks under contract, and everybody else is vying for free agency or league minimum contracts. This means that the player composition of teams can change dramatically over any three year period (witness the Rockets right now!), which I bet will tend to cause fan loyalty problems down the road. But, given the current rules, the Rockets are well situated with few cap-eating contracts and lots of draft picks. Only Price's contract is out of line, and it's not awful.

HAKEEM OLAJUWON has been the best big man in the league for a while, but his age and injuries are taking a toll. He does not dominate games on his own like he did even two years ago, and was unable to carry a fairly talented team very far into the playoffs, something he used to do on a regular basis. When healthy, Hakeem dominates both ends of the court, even when matched up against the other elite centers. Basically, he does it all: low post scoring, mid range jumpers, passing out of the double team, rebounding, man to man defense, "team" defense. Unfortunately, his periods of healthy play are growing shorter as injuries start to mount. Still, he's going to remain one of the league's elite players until he retires in a couple of years, and he's a great veteran to build around. I would consider the right trade if I were Houston's GM, but it would have to be REALLY sweet given how popular Hakeem is (and thus how much of a draw he is at the gate).

Behind Hakeem, Houston is pretty thin. Prior to the trade, Willis usually spelled Hakeem. Now that he's gone, the job falls to second year player OTHELLA HARRINGTON, who isn't under contract but who I expect will be resigned to a medium length contract. Othella got a decent amount of quality playing time, and seems to be improving all the time. He's never going to be a star, but he has `solid journeyman' written all over him. He's not good enough to start yet, particularly on the offensive end, so the Rockets will definitely be looking to pick up some more size through the draft and free agency.

B. Power Forward

Hmm... this is a real problem area with Willis gone. CHARLES BARKLEY could play the position, but given his health, he should be coming off the bench in limited minutes. Assuming he's resigned, Othella might need to start here, since I don't think new acquisition ROY ROGERS is up to playing PF. Look for Houston to sign somebody who can fill in here (e.g., Tom Gugliotta, please, please), or for Harrington and Barkley to tag team it (non-optimal).

This position was filled last year by CLYDE DREXLER and MARIO ELIE. Clyde's retired to coach the Houston Cougars, and the word on the street is that Mario won't be resigned. So, that leaves the position to last year's #1 pick RODRICK RHODES, ROY ROGERS, or a free agent/draft pick. Rhodes is definitely young and athletic, and he started a decent number of games last year, but he needs to work on his shooting if he wants to make an impact (36.7% FG%). I liked seeing him play for 5-8 minute stretches when his athleticism really gets things going, but I don't remember anybody so unable to finish a play since Derrick Chievious. That said, a Rhodes/Rogers tandem at this position might actually work fairly well. ROGERS showed flashes of talent, but has been traded and injured so much that I don't have a good feel for how much he can contribute.

Drexler is gone. Elie is probably gone. Eddie Johnson is old enough to be my grandpa, and thus unlikely to be resigned. Essentially, the Rockets have nobody here under contract at SG. [Yeesh - this is the most bizarre draft report I've ever written, since most of the position players will need to be free agents, including some resigned off the current roster (e.g., Harrington, Elie, or MATT BULLARD) or draft picks... and I can't write about any of them!] Rhodes can play some 2-guard, but the draft has a decent number of quality shooting guards who should be available when the Rockets are picking, so I expect they'll pick up at least one. Jim Jackson is also rumored as a potential free agent pick up - a move I don't particularly support given Jackson's less than stellar performance the last few years at Dallas and Golden State.

The Rockets have somewhere around $15M under the salary cap to pursue free agents, so they should be one of the, if not THE, biggest players in the free agent market this year. If the rumored trade of Hakeem for Shareef Abdur-Rahim happens, Houston has basically the entire salary cap available to them to pursue free agents! So, it's possible that the big names (Pippen, Stoudamire, Googs) might end up Rockets, but not if they ask for tooooo much. Here's what I see happening:

• Charles Barkley: Expect him to sign a one-year deal and come off of the bench. He'll be signed last thanks to the Larry Bird clause (assuming it still exists after the impending lockout).
• Othella Harrington: I expect he'll get resigned to a decent contract (nothing cap busting, but high/mid-100K's).
• Kevin Johnson: Houston supposedly has the inside track to sign KJ to a one-year deal, giving them an athletic point guard for once. Stoudamire or Strickland would be better, but probably are too pricey. If Stoudamire can be signed at a reasonable rate (e.g., $5M/year), then I'd go for him. Any of the above would solidify the PG position, with Price available as a talented backup.
• Jim Jackson: Supposely Houston's preferred option for replacing Drexler at the 2-guard position. Makes sense -- his price will be low and he's a pretty good player as long as you're not counting on him for scoring (and can convince him of that fact). I'm not a big fan of this move, but it's a solid Houston rumor.
• {Jerry Stackhouse, Cedric Ceballos, Scottie Pippen, Tom Gugliatta}: Look for Houston to try to sign one of the plethora of free agent swing men. Pippen and Googs would likely break the bank, and I'm not all that thrilled by Pippen in particular (past his prime and asking for way too much money). Still, they need to pick up an athletic SF to compete in the west -- Googs would be my first choice of the above, if they can get him and his wife to leave Minneapolis.

Basically I see Houston signing at least one of the elite/near-elite free agents (Googs, Stoudamire, Pippen, ...) and two or three mid-level players from other teams (Johnson, Jackson, Stackhouse, Ceballos, ...). That, combined with resigning Barkley, Harrington, and (maybe) one other player and the three first round picks would give the Rockets the core of a new team. They'd be MUCH younger, and thus have a future after Hakeem (not to mention Hakeem's huge salary slot after he retires). Fill out the rest of the team with low end free agents and "scout team" players and you're done. A starting lineup of...

• C: Hakeem Olajuwon
• PF: Tom Gugliotta
• SF: Roy Rogers
• SG: Rodrick Rhodes
• PG: Kevin Johnson

Bench: Barkley, Harrington, Price, Benjamin, Williams, Mohammed, XXX

... would be pretty competitive and give the Rockets a strong core of young players with whom to build for the future. The swing positions would be a bit weak (and very young), but the rest is really strong and the bench would be much better than it's been in recent years (assuming some of the #1's step up and contribute).

Houston's other internal free agents are:

• Matt Bullard : Maybe, but I'd prefer his playing time go to a rookie.
• Emanual Davis: Maybe, but again, I'd prefer to develop a rookie.
• Mario Elie : Super Mario would be great, but word is that he's gone.
• Eddie Johnson: Time to really, truly retire, Eddie.
• Charles Jones: Father Time is gone.
• Matt Maloney : See above - his contract makes it unlikely he'll return.
• Doug Brandt : Who cares?
• Joe Stephens : Who cares?
• Serge Zwicker: Who cares?