#24 - San Antonio Spurs

I. Spurs Scouting Report

The Spurs, on paper made some great gains last year, increasing their win total by more than any other team in history. Realistically, though, this Spurs team hasn't shown itself to be any more of a threat to take the NBA championship as their team three years ago. Certainly the addition of Tim Duncan was a godsend, but given Tim's play over the year, it doubtful that he will significantly improve over the next few years. He came into the league as a very mature player.

This is an important note because San Antonios is starting to realize that to take home an NBA championship within the foreseeable future they have a limited window. With David Robinson now 33 with a string of injuries (especially back problems) over the last few years, it can hardly be expected he will be better than an average center in 4 years at age 37. Its doubtful that when Robinson declines, the team will be in a position to compete for the championship as adding quality personnel over the next few years will be hard given their draft position and salary cap restrictions.

While there is talk about the great progress this team made, some feel they has made none at all. They really do not seem to be a better team than they were three years ago. Certainly their record would not indicate it. Why does a team capable of winning 55 - 60 games, when adding a Tim Duncan, fair no better? Notably, it was due to the biggest problems in the original team (below average guards) and the decline of Sean Elliott. Given the solid play they have at PF and C with Duncan, Robinson and Perdue, I wouldn't expect them to draft a player that is a 4/5 type of player. I also do not expect the team to want to continue playing the big three front line (Duncan/Robinson at SF). This means they have holes to fill at PG, SG and SF. Given the uncertain status of Elliott, I expect SF is the biggest hole, although if a quality guard is available, they will be quick to jump.

II. Player Analysis

To try and determine who the Spurs will pick, I'll look at the three position (PG, SG, SF) and determine who is available and who may be replaced. Given the Spurs draft position, I do not expect they will say "we need to draft a PG". They will probably take the best player available who can man any of the three positions. If they could draft down, they probably would, but have cards to deal with. If they could trade the pick, I'm sure they would. But in this thin draft, it isn't likely.

PG - Avery Johnson

I'll give Avery some credit. He may have played his best year last year. His job is to get the ball into the big guys hand, and try to keep defenders honest. While he does the first job admirably, its the second job that seems disconcerting. Avery has little outside shooting ability (mostly due to his lack of height) and can drive, but again, due to lack of height, isn't encouraged to do so.

Regardless, Avery knows when to shoot, and when not to. Sub 5'10 guards do not survive in this league without this ability ( note his 48% FG% in the season, and 60% in the playoffs).

As a defender, Avery again lacks height to be an effective man to man defender, although his speed helps in the team defense department (picking off passes).

If San Antonio was to draft a PG, they would probably look for some height and outside shot as Del Negro is a competent passer and ball handler. The best they can manage would be Bryce Drew. A decent shooter and passer, he is extremely smart on the floor. He makes few mistakes, and has a great head for the game. As well, he is the type of player who would realize his place is to feed the ball to the big men, and look carefully for his opportunities.

As an added bonus, Bryce would be able to play right away and learn under Johnson. Bryce sometimes reminds me of another coaches son, Matt Maloney, except Bryce is better athletically.

SG - Vinnie Del Negro

Del Negro is a slow PG in a SG body with a good shot. He will never be quick enough to get off enough shots to be a scorer or the outside threat this team needs. He is simply not athletic enough to create his own shots. He is an honest defender, but can't stop the more athletic SG's in the league from scoring. Basically he has made a career in San Antonio buy living off of Robinson double teams and kick outs.

All that said, Vinnie won't make many mistakes (average <1.0 turnovers per game last year). IMO, Del Negros game is so bland, there is little to discuss other than a replacement. Sure, he doesn't hurt his team too much, but doesn't add much in the way of positives.
Cory Carr is just not good enough to take here. Consideration is given because of his scoring and current playing status in Texas. Concern is he may be shorter than listed (at 6'4) and the fact that his FG% is not good and his turnovers dwarf his assists and boards. Definitely not the player SA wants.

About the only other SG of interest would be Toby Bailey. Not much of a scorer, but good passer and rebounder. At 6'5, he would add some much needed height to the backcourt. Regardless, if the Spurs have to take a player of this caliber, it won't really add to what they have. Bailey should be considered a three year project at best.

SF - Sean Elliott

Sean has been little over his career than a sometimes impressive scorer. That will count for little on this team now. They need a tough man to man defender who could hit an outside shot, or drive to the hoop. Sean Elliott used to be the scorer, but injuries have taken their due, and Sean probably will not be a force again.

Any replacement for Sean ideally will be a good defender and a hard worker. Getting a Derrick McKey style of player would seem to be optimal here, but given the draft position, one can only wish.

III. Who I picked and why

Ansu Sesay, PF, 6-9, Mississippi

Sesay seems to be the logical pick. Listed as a PF, he will make his mark as a SF in the pro's. Was originally thought to go much higher, he has avoided some of the draft camps and seen his stock drop. Although not the most proficient of scorers, he can score inside and out and should benefit by not having to be the number 1 or 2 scoring options on his team. He's a strong rebounder who can pass, although his turnovers point to bad ball handling and decision making. As an added bonus he is already a solid FT shooter. At 6'9, he can play with the largest SF's and back up the PF position when required. Sesay has the most potential upside of all players looked at by the Spurs. I expect it will take a year of work before he is ready to handle everyday NBA duty.

Sesay has improved his game admirably every year at the college level, which was recognized this year with a second team all-American award. I'm impressed by his assist numbers (~3 last year) and his yearly improvements on turnovers (about the same every year, but always in increased minutes). He has a lot of work to do, but given his improvement over the past 4 years, I'd have to say (without knowing him personally) that he must have a good work ethic. Hanging around Robinson and Duncan should only spur (no pun intended) him to greater heights.

In the end Sesay won out over Drew. Elliott at SF is a much bigger question mark at this time than Johnson at PG. Given that and Sesay's upside, it wasn't such a hard pick. Rumors are Sesay in concerned about his drop in the draft lists, and is now more willing to show off his talents by participating in camps and working out for some teams. This may translate into a higher draft position for him. The Spurs also wouldn't cry if they were forced to take Drew instead.

In the end Sesay won out over Drew. Elliott at SF is a much bigger question mark at this time than Johnson at PG. Given that and Sesay's upside, it wasn't such a hard pick. Rumors are Sesay in concerned about his drop in the draft lists, and is now more willing to show off his talents by participating in camps and working out for some teams. This may translate into a higher draft position for him. The Spurs also wouldn't cry if they were forced to take Drew instead.